Tomco Energy Share Discussion Threads

[stuart little] 10/2/2022 13:20

It could be argued that success in any of your 3 scenarios makes today's market cap look very cheap.

[fenners66] 10/2/2022 13:11

This plays out one of 3 ways.
Either mega funding for plant and drilling and land amounting to $175-200m happens and I am wrong.
or
there is a conclusion that the funding is not available and the deals off.

or
there is a fudge. Hope held out based on any narrative. Hope to fund dirty drilling , if any revenue comes of that it
will drag this on , but then the December 2022 deadline arrives for funding 90% of land has to be done or can kicked down the road again - at what cost $250k a month?

A unknown refiner might be giving them $millions a year and have 2 years to decide , so that adds to the fudge
period , clearly one would not walk away from that opportunity.

I suspect because of that 2 year opportunity too good to miss this means that a fudge will now take 2 more years to play out at least.

But what will it cost ?
Is it dependent on 100% ownership of the land ?
How much would that cost to fund?
28% + (more risk )
or 99.9% of the company ?
Some hybrid of the two?

[lopodop] 10/2/2022 13:08

How much does the refinery require to become fully operational? Has the lessee really taken on liability for total costs for the refurbishment or is there a conditional 'sharing' arrangement - how much?
Isn't it peculiar that this 'asset' has suddenly raised its head - in other words is it really viable or a flyer?
Has JP given the full picture or is there an overhang ie too good to be true.

[wilson2] 10/2/2022 13:04

Beautiful day today, appreciate what you have and not what you would like

[wilson2] 10/2/2022 12:53

500 barrels per day was the promise January 2021 , did it happen? Of course not

[stuart little] 10/2/2022 12:53

You said all those things after the event. You are predominantly a hindsight poster. So well done on that. So the costs up by $30m, today's rns shows a new potential revenue over $70m. But you'll only consider the borrowing not the revenue side.

[fenners66] 10/2/2022 12:48

Drilling by December 2021 they said.

No way we said.

Cash from oil by January 2022

No chance we said .

Loan paid off by May 2022 with the proceeds from dirty oil they said....

we shall see....

[wilson2] 10/2/2022 12:45

But you are replying

[fenners66] 10/2/2022 12:38

That is context

Since they all want to believe only the best outcome - even if a worse one is thrown in their faces by
the company they support.

Now onto a refiner possibly using the TSHII plant that is "scheduled to be demolished".

What does that tell us?
That TOM cannot spot potential on their own project?
That they had no idea the plant could make a turn ?

Clearly that was not part of the reasoning to overpay ( 145x) the value of land next door.

Why not name the client?
La La saying because it is commercially sensitive ,as if they client might get kicked off another lease it has already?

Sounds far fetched,
The unknown client has 2 years to - presumably spend a load of cash - get the plant running or lose the lease.
So how much do they have to spend?
Have they the funds?

If this does not happen in 2 years the max value of the lease will be 24x 10,000 assuming its still binding with / without the 90% of land bought.

Since TOM IS borrowing at 28% to pay for the 10% - the same arrangement - but look how profitable it could be so please lend us another $16m - would cost $373k a month in interest.

So no guarantees - it spells that out , they have 2 years to get started - but the cost of the land has to be paid in 10.5 months or what happens?

So they find riding over the hill an unnamed white knight whom wants to pay off the land in under 2 years all as a surprise.

What timing!
And TSHII never discussed this in the last 5 years with anyone ?



So I guess its all down to JP's wheeler dealer skills ?

Lets go back to his track record.... anyone want to tell me what happened to his ventures in the past?

[ducky fuzz] 10/2/2022 12:33

0.635p sells are buys. 0.6166p to sell.

Price 0.63p and 0.65p

[fenners66] 10/2/2022 12:26

$110m for a CORT plant they said.
No way I said , its at least $145m and the cost is rising every day.

Too negative they said , $110m is the middle of a range it could be as low as $87m !

Now they talk about the $145m , catching up , or moving negative ?
How could they ?

But already that number has been superseded by TOM's own presentation.

I know the "believers" either don't read or cannot understand TOM's presentation so
I read it for them

Cash flow forecast says Cumulative Negative $175m !

So that is likely to be optimistic.

Stop playing down the numbers even TOM is well past you.

[ducky fuzz] 10/2/2022 12:21

Thanks Fishy.

[fishyneck] 10/2/2022 12:18

Ducky,

As rmart pointed out it is simply all about the funding now. Indeed it has been since the trial, 3rd party verification and FEED were completed. The difference being that previously the funding would have secured us 'just' the 5k plant project. Now it secures us a play in 20-30 wells, potential $3 royalties on the refinery as well as the 5k CORT plant. All for the same initial funding package. I hesitate to make share price predictions, experience should stop me right here, however on funding closure we really should be sat between 3-5p in my opinion. And that could be closer than many think.

To balance, on funding failure or major delay we are back to the drawing board with a share price less than today!

fn.

[wilson2] 10/2/2022 12:17

What happened to that idea of digging a hole put some rocks in , heat it up and oil comes out the Other end.What happened rmart

[rmart] 10/2/2022 11:58

Funding news allowing us to buy the remaining 90% of the land is the key.

Then EVERYTHING is in place. This is all going very well indeed.

They have now basically put themselves in the position to buy $110m of income for $18m. And to get to the $110m of income costs tomco nothing more.

Even that alone is worth pennies on the share price never mind the 5,000bopd cort plant and the shallow oil drills.

[rmart] 10/2/2022 11:54

Anyone dropping in here also take a look at WILSON2 posting history over 15 yrs.

lopodop, fenners66, thediddymen, ace ventura, wilson2

Anyone dropping in here please take note, the above posters have been trashing tomco for years. They will NEVER accept tomco is moving forward. Totally biased and a crazy daily deramping gang.

[wilson2] 10/2/2022 11:46

Yeah we are definitely worth it . Anyone thinking of buying tomco shares have a look at how they have done in the last 15 years,

[rmart] 10/2/2022 11:39

Still a seller about, soon be done

[lopodop] 10/2/2022 11:38

DF
It's probably not the RNS per se.
Cantor would have expected a bigger movement and perhaps today's rns was held over in case some puff was required. Also possible nervousness about next week detected; maybe concern about another board change at critical time.