Tomco Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rmart] 10/10/2021 20:27

Strange you didn’t mention it in your post.

[busamitch] 10/10/2021 20:23

"(Bloomberg) --Oil explorers need to raise drilling budgets by 54% to more than half a trillion dollars to forestall a significant supply deficit in the next few years, according to Moody’s Investors Service Inc.

Crude and natural gas drillers chastened by last year’s unprecedented collapse in demand and prices haven’t responded to the recent market rebound as the industry typically does by expanding the search for untapped fields. While international crude and U.S. gas have risen more than 50% and 120% this year, respectively, drilling outlays are only forecast to increase by 8% globally, Moody’s said in a report Thursday.

That’s too little to replace what those companies will pump from the ground in 2022, setting the stage for even tighter supply scenarios, Moody’s analysts including Sajjad Alam wrote in the report. Any such squeeze would come atop the current crises afflicting Asian and European economies scrambling to shore up fuel stockpiles as winter approaches and prices seemingly break records on an almost-daily basis.

“The industry will need to spend significantly more, especially if oil and gas demand keeps climbing beyond pre-pandemic levels through 2025,” the Moody’s analysts wrote.

Oil and gas companies are expected to spend $352 billion on drilling and related activities this year, Moody’s said, citing estimates from the International Energy Agency. If they raised to to the credit-rating firm’s recommended $542 billion, that would be the highest worldwide since 2015."

[hotfinance14] 10/10/2021 18:49

Yes I was thrgef.

[thrgef] 10/10/2021 18:31

I expect hotfinance was coming from the point of msar or biomsar, which is a new product, yet to be commercially developed and as yet has no customers. The untreated bitumen with solvent or not of course has a market already

[hotfinance14] 10/10/2021 18:31

It is not as straight forward as you think rmart I can assure you.

[the diddymen] 10/10/2021 18:13

Mixi have you been on the Ukrainian wine at lunchtime?

[ajj2003] 10/10/2021 17:26

Very restrained rmart, it must be Sunday ;)

[goulding1215] 10/10/2021 15:15

All hyperbole and guesswork Fenners. Why not deal in facts otherwise you are wasting your time.you don’t see the big picture or the global overview.

[hotfinance14] 10/10/2021 14:40

The big question is will they get they be able to get a customer?

[fenners66] 10/10/2021 14:22

So Petroteq have spent 10 years trying to get CORT to work and despite losing $90+m failing.

They invite Valkor in to join them , meanwhile Valkor strike a deal with HCD to drill their acreage.

Valkor don't drill on HCD's land

TOM spends what £20m and what nearly 20 years failing to get a commercial operation with Turboshale and then RF , so since it has access to funds , gets invited into a JV with Valkor.

TOM spends $1.5m on Petroteq's CORT plant , on Valkor's engineering. Petroteq shares are suspended and clearly must be struggling for financing.

Having completed the POSP Tom starts talk about raising $110m + to set up a 5,000 bpd plant in the Greenfield JV.

But also looks to pay $24,000 an acre for land next door to HCD's land which is sold to Valkor for $140 an acre.

Valkor leaves the Greenfield JV , seems all they have done is held the rights for a while awaiting someone else to come along and spend their cash on it.

Suddenly TOM is talking about financing this land deal they have now sunk a non-refundable $500k into as they no longer have the funds for 10% $2m and the talk becomes how can they get help for the 10% , not the $18.25m and certainly not $110m+

The problem is compounded by Valkor pulling out of the JV and therefore no longer being on the hook for half of the deposit.

Thereafter all transactions will be at "arms length" in other words expect no favours from the ex-JV partner.

Valkor give away for FREE the JV but would get 29% of TOM if within 3 years TOM can finance a CORT plant.

Meanwhile Valkor or any other 3rd party is free to offer a we will drill on your land deal to suggest a way of financing the 10% acreage.

So Valkor who have now bought similar land of their own can concentrate solely on traditional oil extraction leaving TOM hoping to finance a fortune to try CORT.

CORT's selling point being green pollution-less is now hoping to raise some cash from injecting steam to extract oil - not on message ?

The mega-expensive land deal runs until 31-12-2022 and the presumed $18.25m will be due by then.

TOM have no drill , no personnel , little money and have now burned a non-refundable $2m (500k on a land option and $1.5m on someone else's plant).

TOM signed up for an option with 4 months to buy 10%.
Its now been extended to 6.5m and an extra $300k
There is no imminent financing deal being talked about other than a 3rd party with a drill.... if that 3rd party is Valkor they can just concentrate on their own land.

What chance of the deposit getting done? talk is cheap , the need to extend this again for 1.5m suggests its not happening soon , they will have been discussing this for months already.
IF it does then when could the drilling start , there is a history of delay over the years here.

That would likely mean not enough time to come up with the $16.25m next year.

Meanwhile failing at that , would mean what for the 10% ?

The finance for the CORT plant - years away if ever so Valkor know this and are potentially giving away everything to do with CORT for nothing.

Why ?Too expensive , no prospect of financing it ? Traditional drilling with less risk much cheaper?

On the evidence so far , I cannot see TOM getting a deal complete for 100% of the land.
I cannot see a CORT plant for TOM.

Another few years will go by , while everything remains quiet about RF as long as their is a CORT story to spin.

If the CORT story dies then expect RF to resurface , it cannot go altogether as the balance sheet would be destroyed by the write off.

I have read the RNS's and tried to gauge how TOM got involved and what TOM had to offer, it seems cash was the answer and that has been used...

Valkor have been in and out of CORT and Petroteq have lost a fortune trying it....

no reason for any finance company to risk $110m+ with inflation and underestimates my guess would be more like $150m

If my guess is wrong so be it... make a pile of money , slap yourselves on the back.
If my guess is right , the shares will bumble along kept on life support by the narrative ....

[chadwick123] 10/10/2021 09:03

Great post foxm, many thanks.

[ducky fuzz] 10/10/2021 08:31

Until I got into TOMco I have never taken an interest in oil prices other than what
I pay to fill my car at the pumps and heating at home.

I've just looked it up and can see that the lowest price of oil last year was
only $11.26 .. that really surprised me.

You can see how oil producing companies might struggle as we might if the oil price crashes.

A big plus for us with Oil Sands is that we are producing sand where I assume the price is much more stable.

[ducky fuzz] 10/10/2021 07:55

Hi Foxy .. Brilliant post, thanks for taking the time to share your knowledge. DF

[foxm] 10/10/2021 07:35

Ducky Fuzz, SAGD is a relatively new process, it didn't start commercially until about 20 years ago, it's only been in the last 10 years or so that it has been ramped up big time in Canada. Since then, the CAPEX and OPEX have come down dramatically, and at the same time the efficiency has gone up. The cost of drilling a well pair has more than halved, it's maybe even a quarter or a fifth of the price it used to be.



Since they started drilling horizontal wells instead of vertical ones, the production rates have also increased significantly. That Canada Energy Regulator link I posted on Friday showed that oil production in Canada has remained stable, even although there's been a huge decrease in the number of producing wells. As the years have gone on and the process has been refined and improved, flow rates have steadily increased.

Then there's the oil price, since the Saudis decided to turn on the taps in late 2014, to try and kill the US shale industry, the price of WTI hasn't been that strong for a long enough period, the chance of making a profit would have been slim for a lot of the time. But now all the stars have aligned, it's finally become a very attractive economic model. Much lower operating costs, much better production rates, WTI at $80 and possibly even heading higher, a potential future supply crunch, extra profits and the environmental benefits from a low sulphur MSAR/bioMSAR.

From a small start in the mid-2000s, SAGD now accounts for a third of all production in Canada's oil sands, and it's set to grow even further. The time is now right for Utah to join that growth. We could have 5 wells producing on Tomco's potential site, New Day Energy doing an extensive in-situ oil production programme right next door, Valkor drilling on Hydrocarbon Dynamics Limited's site. Long term, CORT will be the bigger profit maker in Utah, but given the much shorter timescales to get in-situ production started, we could see a lot of action soon, in order to take advantage of the current oil price.

[rmart] 09/10/2021 22:38

Someone has to be first.

[ducky fuzz] 09/10/2021 18:41

It surprises me that if what we are going to do with the CO2 is so simple and profitable why others haven't done it before us in the USA. DF

[damac] 09/10/2021 18:38

It is being used in Canada….

[goulding1215] 09/10/2021 18:21

Good question DF.

[ducky fuzz] 09/10/2021 16:27

It surprises me that if what we are going to do with the CO2 is so simple and profitable why others haven't done it before us. DF

[damac] 09/10/2021 16:24

I’d wait and see what the official news on it says as no doubt geographical characteristics will play a major part in the number of barrels produced per day, so figures attributable to Canada or anywhere else probably cannot be assumed as like for like with TS2.

For me, Tomco need to come out and state…

1. The estimated recoverable barrels of oil being targeted by in-situ well extraction.

2. The rate of production that each well will be run at.

3. Any plan to scale up if number of recoverable barrels in the ground is significant.

[paulfromyahoo] 09/10/2021 15:25

I did read the RNS, which was the point. It now appears that you have as well, so we are all on the same page. All's well that ends well.