Tiger Royalties And Inve... Share Discussion Threads

[[e-mail]] 26/3/2007 11:32

vern

all reports on AST looking good must be woth a tick up.

[smilewithme] 23/3/2007 11:48

Skyship,

Snap! The article that drew may attention to recent rise in Cobalt actually mentioned Formation!

I did not include the full link to the article since it was only the Cobalt part that I was interested in.....

Otherwise Cobalt is new to me. Was always one of those metals that FRA had but never quite understood. Take a look also at

Its only recently that I have been able to find reliable prices.

Here is the full article link...

smilewithme

Metals, Mining and Exploration

"cobalt (a mini-uranium type run-up appears underway in cobalt - see Formation Capital)"

GRANDICH LETTER SPECIAL ALERT:

By Peter Grandich
February 21, 2007

[utwiq] 23/3/2007 11:31

Apologies to TIR shareholders, as this has nothing to do with your company but is all about a cobalt play instead:

FCO is interesting but I'd say it is a bit too expensive and too risky (political risk in that part of America is high!). It's been dragged up by its status as a minor uranium play (I'm heavily invested in uranium companies - near-term producers and advanced explorers - but a lot of the exploration stocks have raced upwards on not much at all). I'd recommend you take a look at V.GMC instead (Geovic Mining; Canadian Venture Exchange), which has a simply astonishing nickel/cobalt project in Cameroon. They own 60% of the project, it has very low capex (just over $100m, an extra $60m will double production), and outstanding economics (after-tax 77.5% IRR at conservative prices). Adding to the joy, there is manganese which could add +$100m to annual cashflow (for a modest capex increase) and this is the first of seven deposits (this first one has a 25yr mine life as it is; the second has an inferred resource, the others have no official resource yet). The economics are incredible, they've raised a lot of money already and have good backers/management, and are in a good place to work. A lot of people will be put off by any project being in Africa, but I think that's a real mistake - it all depends on where it is (Zimbabwe or the Sudan no thanks) and what the point of comparison is. A lot of American states (and elsewhere in the first world) are probably more risky, in political terms (permitting costs and likelihood of delay/veto on environmental grounds) than most third-world jurisdictions. Anyway, check out the technical report on GMC's website, I'm sure you'll be impressed.

[skyship] 23/3/2007 11:21

SmileWithMe - Do you happen to know anything more about the cobalt market? If you find any link anywhere I would be most interested. The reason is for background material prior to buying a few Formation Capital (TSE:FCO).

Here is the extract from TIR's last Annual Report:

Formation Capital Corporation (TSX - FCO) www.formcap.com

Tiger holds 2,025,000 shares in Formation Capital Corporation ("Formation"),
which is a now a well established mineral exploration, development and refining
company. The company is making good progress with its feasibility study and
received its preliminary Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on the high grade
Idaho Cobalt Project in early 2006. Production for this project is projected to
be 2.6 million lbs of cobalt per year representing approximately 15% of US
consumption. The company also owns and operates the Big Creek Hydrometallurgical
Complex and Sunshine Precious Metals Refinery which currently processes third
party concentrates, but will be expanded to process its own cobalt. Once the
environmental licensing process is completed this investment is a call-option on
cobalt since it is destined to be a cobalt producer.

[smilewithme] 23/3/2007 10:54

"SmileWithMe does tend to go on somewhat about FRA, but it is an interesting stock and does represent 6% of our assets, so I'm always pleased to read his posts"

Thanks Guys!

Anything thats good for FRA is good for SVE, and good for Tiger!

Am particularly interested in the increase in the value of Cobalt.

And I am probably the most enthusiastic poster you have come across? But at least my posts are research based ;-)

[skyship] 23/3/2007 10:11

Sorry - posted twice!

[skyship] 23/3/2007 10:10

METALLICA - It's possible you've been listening to too much of the music from whom you presumably adopted your moniker!

A five yr record here is rather difficult because of v.limited marketability according to the chart, but going back 3yrs reveals share price growth of 83% & NAV growth of 107%. Personally I'm more than happy with that, especially as I will look to play the trends rather than hold & forget. I sold on the spike in the Autumn of 2005, bt back in again in the middle of last year, top-sliced on the rise & bt again recently.

SmileWithMe does tend to go on somewhat about FRA, but it is an interesting stock and does represent 6% of our assets, so I'm always pleased to read his posts.

My suggestion is you chance a small investment TODAY @ 3.75p as you are quite likely to be on minimally a 12.5% profit (4.25p Bid) within a couple of months from now.

[metallica] 23/3/2007 09:02

All you read about on this thread is Franconia. The best thing the board of TIR can do is wind up the company and hand the money back. Its 5 years performance has been dismal and you would have been better of putting it in a FTSE tracker fund.

[smilewithme] 23/3/2007 08:44

Cobalt – US$ 2.5 Billion – Metal in Ground

As Franconia slips due to lack of news and free trading stock becoming available, interesting to note what is happening in the Cobalt market place. It has been said that a mini-urnanium type run-up appears underway – 3X in a year!

Cobalt is now US$32.50 / lb

Franconia have nearly US$2.5 Billion Cobalt inferred in-situ value (that's over 10% of their total value, as shown below.

smilewithme

[skyship] 22/3/2007 16:44

TIR is by no means a charting stock, but I still find it useful for:

# seeing support & resistance levels
# tracking the Moving Averages

IMO the rising 50day MA will soon lever us higher - presumably coinciding with the Prelims anticipated sometime over the next 4 weeks. The confirmation of the 31st March NAV (c.6th April) and the expected resumption of buybacks should take us to first stop 4.25p, versus the current 3.55p-3.75p

[skyship] 22/3/2007 13:49

BIZARRE & WORTH NOTING. My above post was truncated halfway through the 1st sentence as I used the usual symbol for "less than" (ie a letter v on its side pointing left! When edited it still didn't appear; though did when I replaced the symbol with the words "less than".

Anyway - revisited today to post the good news that at the moment AST is up 1.25p @ 18p. As each 1p on AST = 0.153p on the TIR NAV, the NAV has now advanced to 6.32p - Discount now 43.0% @ 3.6p (41.4% @ 3.7p).

[skyship] 21/3/2007 11:17

I wouldn't buy TIR as an alternative way into FRA, though FRA does now account for 6% of the portfolio value v. the less than 1% a year ago. I would/did buy for the large holding in AST (Ascent Resources) which now accounts for 41% of the portfolio.

[hpotter] 21/3/2007 10:27

Skyship,
Once again my thanks are due.
I notice that Starvest also has a 40% discount to NAV despite being more actively traded.
Investing in TIR because of FRA would not seem too worthwhile given that little seems to affect the TIR price except buy backs.

[skyship] 21/3/2007 08:29

HP - "Retracement" - sorry for the tech-speak. "A retracement is (chartist parlance for) a pullback whilst a stock is in a primary uptrend. A fall is the continuation of or a reversal into a primary downtrend" - see p.37 of Market Analysis & Behaviour by Edwards & Trefoil (Chicago Board of Trade), pub'd by Cato - 1977.

ie, there is a major difference between the two terms when it comes to stock analysis - but then - I'm sure you knew that in any event!!

[hpotter] 20/3/2007 22:03

Skyship,
Thanks for the sound advice.
Perhaps instead of continuing the buyback programme TIR should pay a dividend. That might be a better way to achieve a lower discount.

'Retracement' is a new word to me. Is it American for fall..which they call autumn, so they have to use a big word instead?

[skyship] 20/3/2007 17:13

The TIR NAV fell back to 5.8p on the FRA retracement; however AST is now moving ahead again so the NAV has recovered to 6.13p today.

To put that into context, don't be tempted to part company with your stock. At 3.6p the discount is once again up to 41.2% (36.6% fully diluted).

Also, the Prelims could now be just 2-3 weeks away. (I was told they could well be much earlier this year - perhaps around the time one would normally expect for a 31st December y/e - ie, end March / early April.) Once they are out of the way then TIR can resume its buyback programme, so selling now is just plain bizarre.

[smilewithme] 18/3/2007 17:08

Chance to buy some FRA after retracement.....

Junior US$ 21 Billion Nickel–Copper-PGM

Hi,

Nickel has been hitting all time highs, amid dwindling supplies, and Copper is again, back over US$3.

This is great news for Franconia Minerals, who have an inferred resource in-situ value, at current prices, of Nickel US$ 11 Billion and Copper US$ 5.8 Billion.

FRA NPV at recent higher metal prices ranges from US$ 1.7 Billion to US$ 3.1 Billion depending at discount rate. At much lower long term metal prices NPV may be around several hundred US Million (still a multiple of today's market cap)



Franconia's share price has slipped over the past few weeks, down 21% and is now at Cdn$ 1.74 (76p). This sell-off could have been caused by investor concern over recent private placement stock coming onto the market from 21st March.

FRA has the largest land package (15,000 acres) in the largest undeveloped mining district in North America. FRA's market capitalisation is around Cdn$ 80 million dollars still tiny compared to its neighbour POM/ PLM Polymet Mining at around Cdn$ 400 million. Polymet's advantages are that their resource is better quantified and that they are closer to production by a couple of years. However, we know that FRA's NPV may actually be nearly double POM. More risk obviously but a lot more upside potential – FRA themselves have indicated that their share price could be four or five times higher than today.

Franconians should take a look at new presentation at



FRA has some imminent news which could send the share price north again:

1. Ongoing Drilling (15+ Pq Holes With Wedges) at Birch Lake. FRA have indicated that they will be producing six weekly updates. (Last announcement was Feb 6th)

2. Collect Sample for Ni Recovery Optimization Studies at Birch Lake
(Underway- Results in March 2007) . Even a small percentage improvement could have a major affect on FRAs already massive US$11 Billion Nickel value.

3. Red Knoll Copper Target Between Morenci Mine (20% of US Copper Production) and Safford District, Arizona.

Drilling is Underway with results due March 07.





smilewithme

[skyship] 01/3/2007 16:55

Well, after (or should I say during) a week like this it is good to see that the NAV has really held up quite well - by my model:

# Undiluted - 6.03p (35.4% disc.)

# Diluted - 5.59p (30.3% disc.)

Have discovered that my model could be a tad conservative due to a query as to whether the Franconia options rolled over rather than expired at 31st Dec'06; and if they were converted then there was a gain to add in any event. Will be attempting to clarify this point.

[skyship] 23/2/2007 11:08

smilewithme - Franconia making a chart breakout in Canada - nearly bt some yesterday afternoon, but already overweight in the secondary miner sector, so will just enjoy the benefits here in TIR.

NAV for TIR closed out at an improved 6.30p - 38.1% discount.

[skyship] 21/2/2007 17:07

With AST back to 16.25p, the NAV has also pulled back to 6.19 undiluted (37% discount) & 5.73 diluted (32% discount).

[skyship] 16/2/2007 08:31

ANDREW - thanks for that. As you will know and as I stated earlier, the reason for the late'05 high of 4.35p was the buyback scheme in operation. The Company paid up to 4.2p to secure any reasonable volume. The NAV then was c.15% lower than now, so really they should be paying higher than that 4.2p, especially if they want to flush out any new sellers.

Today's interest for me is to see whether AST can hold on to yesterday's gain. If it holds into next week, then With the Finals for the Y/e 31/12/06 possibly due end March/early April, I would expect further buy-in activity over the next few weeks and perhaps at a more realistic level - ie, up to 4.5p perhaps.

[andrewpsaunders] 16/2/2007 06:38

Here is another post I put on the iii bultin board under the nickname ANDYBRADFORD.. thought I would copy it in for you this time :))

Ascent Resources (AST) have rocketed in the last six weeks nearly doubling from 9.5p to 18p. This stock is Tigers largest holding a 29.1m shares. Now valued at £5.22m (up from £2.76m).

The portfolio value has now increased to £12.11m (AST £5.22m, rest of portfolio £3.61m, cash £3.283m). With 191.72m shares outstanding this gives a Net Asset Value of 6.32p, with no debt. However, the current market price of 3.85p, still only values the company at just £7.38m - a near 40% discount.

So why is the discount so high? Well there is traditionally a discount on stocks whose value is purely made up from other stocks and cash. Cambrian Mining CBM for example can be valued in a similar way. CBM is currently trading at 104p, valuing the company at about £94m. From my own calculation Cambrians current holdings value the company at approx £130m. This gives a discount of 27.6%. So why is the discount less? One reason will be that CBM has provided a dividend of 1.5p. Another could be that the value of Cambrains coal stocks like Coal International (CLN) and Western Canadian (WTN) have fallen to unrealistically low values in the face of the recent global warming concerns, when their coal, much of it for making steel, is in my opinion less likely to be affected by this current negativity surrounding coal.

Anyway, getting back to Tiger, a good move forward could be to continue their Share Buy back programme. If all the remaing cash was used to buy back shares at the current price, they could reduce the shares in issue by 85.3m. With the current stock porfolio valued at £8.83m the reduced share capital of 106.4m shares would give an NAV of 8.3p, increasing the discount to 46%. Of course the share price would likey rise if they attempted such a large share buyback.

Alternatively they could offer a smalll dividend, with the surplus cash, although this has never been a policy as long as I've been monitoring this stock.

One final point I would consider is the fluctuation in the discount. Back in late 2005 the stock reached a high of 4.35p. At the time the maximum NAV published was about 5.4p. The discount here dropped notably to only 22%.

I hold 60,000 shares in TIR

[herschel1276] 15/2/2007 15:32

I've just added here, it will catch up soon on the basis of the rise in AST (assuming that holds, which it looks like doing).

I also hold AST long-term. =)