Thungela Resources Share Discussion Threads

[wolfofhounslow] 07/4/2023 13:42

Last day for divi 19th of April in UK.Money will start moving into TGA for the divi...

[e43] 06/4/2023 19:19

Sogoesit,too many variables at present ,could be a v good or v bad next 9months,who has a clue about the coal price in six months time?All broker forecasts fairly worthless.
Always worth keeping an eye on the Indonesian coal situation both domestic and export, likewise the performance of the domestic coal industries in India and China .

[sbb1x] 06/4/2023 16:42

Closed at 860. Reckon it could retest 52 week low off 776 let's see.

[sogoesit] 05/4/2023 11:39

Hi!
Anyone forecasting forward dividends for NTM?
I already have difficulty putting a valuation together based on yield but was able to do so before with relative certainty on the dividends... but now, and with Ensham, putting a dividend together is pretty difficult.

EDIT:
Made a rough stab at it following discovery about Ensham cash contribution to the 2023 year, as follows:
Assuming $140/tonne, 15% discount, R18.25/USD and SA export sales of 11.5Mt I get £3/share EPS.
At a P/E of 3 >> share price is thus 900gbx.

Payout of 80% based on a TTM yield of 28% gives a dividend of £2.50 (maybe optimistic) for FY23.

[wirralowl] 31/3/2023 11:21

Thanks spawny100!

[wirralowl] 31/3/2023 11:03

Anyone know what the with-holding tax is on dividend? Net £1.42 by my maths suggests c.20% is this correct?

[sogoesit] 30/3/2023 11:18

Yeah well, wallywoo not even understanding short term market action let alone long term strategic economics...
As today's price clearly demonstrates that a purchase at 850, ramping up to a pre-ex yield impact of say 15% could drive the share price to 1000.
All depends on what yield folks are willing to pay for 145p net. Who knows!

Still, if it gets there, post pre-ex, the drop might not even be as great either.

[1knocker] 30/3/2023 10:52

Well, this a bit of a turnaround. Fingers and toes crossed - must not tempt fate!

[1viky] 29/3/2023 22:14

If coal steadies at 140 I hope to see share price at 12 before ex dividend.

[1knocker] 29/3/2023 14:27

Even allowing a large discount for jurisdiction risk, coal price uncertainty, woke persecution, and the decrepit SA railways and ports, to my mind it easily justified £10.

With a £1.42 (net) dividend declared and payable in a couple of months £10 really amounts to only £8.60, and at today's price, £7.20. When it goes ex d the share price will no doubt fall, but what are the prospects it will fall below £7.20?

I held off last year (unfortunately TGA only came on my radar when the price spiked) and started a position at £10.09. £10 was my estimate of the point at which all the risks were more than in the price. I have made two top ups since. While one always wishes on'e purchase price was lower, I feel relaxed with an average of £8.99, effectively £7.57 net of the declared dividend.

Just one man's thoughts. DYOR.

[wolfofhounslow] 29/3/2023 12:10

Expecting this to smash onto 900++ soon

[1jbrisky] 28/3/2023 16:47

Wallywoo
Coal in massive decline
Hahahahahahaha

[1knocker] 28/3/2023 16:16

Wally is the living proof of the truth of the saying 'It ain't what a man don't know as makes him a fool, its what he does know as ain't so'.

three 'facts of the day'. for Wally

fact 1: More coal was mined and burned last year than in any other single year in the history of the world.

fact 2 : It is going to be many, many years before consumption of 8 bn tons pa drops to zero, if it ever does

fact 3 : Wally and his mates sticking themselves to the M25 with superglue won't change fact 2.

[wolfofhounslow] 28/3/2023 16:07

In the longer term, we anticipate continued strong coal demand from emerging markets, especially those in Asia, where coal is likely to remain part of the energy mix for at least the next two decades," he said.Thungela reiterated that the creation of diversification options remained an important focus for its business growth going forward.In February, it had announced the acquisition of a controlling shareholding in the Ensham thermal coal business in Australia.

[bellbottom] 28/3/2023 12:08

There are around 770 million people on this planet of ours that have no access to electricity. And as the human population continues to expand the demand increases. Coal will be around for decades as we play catch up.
So much for green energy.

Even in the US, where they spout one thing while doing another, up to a million people will be working in the coal industry over the next few years. That's almost double where they are now. It's one thing to talk 'green' but the reality will take a huge shift and have massive inmplications for the economies of the leading nations.

With so much economic hardship being inflicted by the world's various crises, the end date for coal mining has just moved off further into the horizon.

For third world countries to shift from fossil fuels, the West needs to prove the benefits of green energy and policies and then to sink trillions into helping those countries follow suit. That is decades away whether we like it or not.

[wallywoo] 28/3/2023 11:10

I wonder whether some BB'S understand the concept of investment? What's the point of buying this for 830p with a 140p odd dividend, if the share price is around 500p in a few months??Since coal is in massive decline, why didn't they buy a acquisition for another mining commodity?

[sogoesit] 28/3/2023 09:44

Dead horses can be butchered and sold for food, in my experience.

I would prefer it to be "tenderised" rather than having folks "flog" me endless narratives 'tho. ;-))

(Sometimes I really wonder whether folks understand commodities' businesses at all, never mind ones in run-off).

[bellbottom] 28/3/2023 08:54

I'm not a subscriber to News24 but I note the headline.





Only just getting up to speed with TGA. Looks like 783-800 may be the bottom.

[stevetmade1] 27/3/2023 21:07

Good points, it makes the Australian acquisition adventure an even better decision going forward.

[1knocker] 27/3/2023 19:28

bellbottom, I think you have to make up your mind whether the decrepitude of the railway and port system, and the constraints upon the company that imposes, are adequately reflected in the share price.

There is neither the money nor the management expertise to put them in proper order. On the other hand, South Africas are remarkably adept at keeping clapped out machinery operating, after a fashion!