Thungela Resources Share Discussion Threads

[bellbottom] 27/3/2023 17:06

Hi 1knocker,

Been looking at Thungela only recently. The Transnet situation doesn't look good.
Not sure what the alternatives are. We know what it's been like for FXPO with Black Sea ports blocked and rail networks disrupted - I know that's becuase of war - what's your take on the Transnet rail network? So far I can't see anything positive without major private investment and it will take time.

You did well to get 783. We'll see where it goes from here. The company looks great - well managed but I'm put off by the transport links.

[1knocker] 27/3/2023 14:04

Golly, its a roller coaster today. I am feeling better about that 802 purchase - for now. Feeling better still about starting a holding on another family member's portfolio an hour or so later at 783 ! Heaven knows whether he will be buying me a pint by close of play, or whether I shall be apologising.

Never mind, those £1.42 beer vouchers will be welcome when they arrive.

Seriously though, while nothing is certain, if you buy today at about 800, get 140 back in a couple of months time, and hold for the future income (indecent I hope) at a net 660, TGA SHOULD be a decent bet.

[wolfofhounslow] 27/3/2023 13:30

Maybe turn blue at some point ?

[pecuniarum copia] 27/3/2023 13:23

TGA > dividenddata.co.uk

[sogoesit] 27/3/2023 13:15

1knocker: "... but a decent income return".

I like that... a forward yield in the order of 45% to 50% is quite indecent in my view. But I like indecency ;-)!

[sogoesit] 27/3/2023 10:56

The dividend information is here, folks:
Ex- is 20/04 last record as per jurgenklopp. on London. Johannesburg is different.

[bluearmy1] 27/3/2023 10:36

If you already own stock, have you qualified for the divi regardless?

[1knocker] 27/3/2023 10:03

Bought a few more at 802 this morning. Should have waited a bit longer for sub 800 !!
My average is 899, so underwater, but a decent income return.

[jurgenklopp] 27/3/2023 09:44

You can buy up to 19 April to qualify for the dividend.

[kamz] 27/3/2023 09:41

If you buy today, will you still get the dividend ? Thanks

[1jbrisky] 27/3/2023 08:46

Bozzy, not surprisingly given current markets, despite pretty decent results, you can buy these even cheaper today.

[liam1om] 27/3/2023 08:26

Revenue in-line but profit and dividend are light of consensus. Continues to flag Transnet rail as headwind. As a result, lowers 2023 production guidance to 10.5-12.5 Mt.

[davetedjack] 27/3/2023 08:25

Why the massive fall. Was expecting a positive day.

[jurgenklopp] 27/3/2023 08:04

£1.42 net divi for UK holders after withholding tax.

[bozzy_s] 27/3/2023 08:02

40 Rand = £1.80. Not a bad return eh? Wish I'd bought these already! Congrats 1knocker and others.

[e43] 27/3/2023 07:51

Pleased with results,dividend much as I was expecting, bearing in mind cost of Australian acquisition.Transnet performance remains a big drag on performance though.Coal at $130 per tonne will still show a v healthy profit going forward.Plus H2 contribution fr Aus.

[sogoesit] 27/3/2023 07:03

Yes, well, surprisingly interesting results.
40ZAR Dividend. Raising liquidity buffer to R8.2bn. (From R6bn iirc).
Dividend based on 61% of adjusted free operating cash flow of R5.6bn second half; so payout down, buffer up.

Edit:
Coal reserves up nearly 100mT (on conversions) with a net gain of about 50mT.

[sogoesit] 26/3/2023 18:43

Just as a quick valuation exercise in what this stock is worth to me I have discounted the following half-yearly dividend distributions by an 8% DF for six years assuming a nil terminal value at end year six:

In GBPence (including 2022):
300, 300, 150, 150, 100, 100, 100, 100, 75, 75, 75, 75.

The NPV is £13.37.

Paying £8.50 for that stream gives an NPV of £5.19 and an IRR of 27%.
Stripping out the first half's 300p dividend gives £10 (clearly) and paying £8.50 an NPV of £1.85 with an IRR of 10%.

For me this is a hold on a six year run-off basis and that ignores the Ensham mine.

[lord buffett] 23/3/2023 11:28

Let's not forget the recent "earnings and cash flow accretive" Australian acquisition:

In line with its commitment to deliver superior returns to shareholders, and delivering on its purpose to responsibly create value together for a shared future, Thungela is pleased to announce that it has entered into agreements, as set out below, which envisage Thungela obtaining a controlling interest in the Ensham coal mine (within the well-established and infrastructure-enabled southern Bowen Basin in Queensland, Australia).

Increased scale and marketing capability - Based on 2022 performance, the Ensham
coal mine would have added 3.2Mt of export saleable production (on a 100% basis) to
Thungela’s current portfolio. Under the Transaction, Thungela will have operational
control of Ensham coal mine and, subject to certain existing arrangements, envisages marketing its proportional share of the coal produced by Ensham coal mine. This will provide Thungela with access to the Japanese and other Asian markets where demand remains strong and also better balance the Group's price exposure by providing exposure to the strong Newcastle export coal price, complementing the Group’s existing exposure to the Richards Bay benchmark coal price.

The Transaction is expected to be earnings and cash flow accretive, with strong
potential for a short payback period - Approximately two thirds of Ensham coal mine's 2023 budgeted production has been forward sold at attractive prices.

[johneee] 20/3/2023 17:26

Is it time for Thungela to have hit the bottom and reverse its recent trend?

Doesn't the damage for good quality coking coal just keep growing ?

[sogoesit] 10/3/2023 10:17

If i recall the payout ratio last half on HEPS was about 90%.
So 0.9 x 69 = 62 >>> roughly the same as the Interim.

[e43] 09/3/2023 19:16

With the Australian acquisition 2 finance and the current falling coal price they might be more conservative ,I would be happy with £1.50 net.