Thungela Resources Share Discussion Threads

[johnrxx99] 24/2/2023 09:03

Total return but that depends on when you invested. It's very nice to say you've been smart and bought in at 900p but what about 1600p?

TR depends on many factors, time being one of them. The stock hasn't been trading for two years yet so a long way to go before you can measure TR in any meaningful way IMO.

[sogoesit] 23/2/2023 16:13

At $150/t = 360p
At $200/t = 700p

Sales:12.5 Mt
Costs:ZAR955/t

Forex:
ZAR/GBP:22
ZAR/USD:18

(Edit: Ignores Ensham mine as being cash neutral. Back of envelope Ensham could add upto about £2/share).

[sbb1x] 23/2/2023 13:17

What will EPS be in 2023 at current prices?Anyone care to take a guess ?

[sogoesit] 23/2/2023 11:40

Yep, agree .. e43.
I entered on sticking with it through to run-off nil value so extending mine life is a bonus, strategically.

Some back-of-envelope ideas... and these will obviously vary depending on original time/price of entry ... on why I would tend to stick with this.

My current b/even is about 900p all told, capital only.
With past dividends that makes 510p b/even. Running y-o-i is > 40%.
Next, upcoming, dividend assume 300p gross > b/even on position comes down to 210p if held for dividend in cash.

Reasonable share price upside pre-ex would be about £11+ imv.

Forward yield?
Coal price ratio: say 1HY2023 averages $150/t > 55% of last 2HY2022 average $276/t.
Pro-rata dividend for 1HY2023 makes 165p. Total payable during calendar 2023 therefore 465p.
My forward y-o-i goes to 51% and my b/even comes down to 45p.

Personally, I think this beats inflation, for me. But I know there are folks here have already been paid back.
(May update my spreadsheet when FY figures come out).

[e43] 23/2/2023 10:04

Ultimately SOG it has to be total returns,whether it's a runoff situation or a sustainable med- long-term business.
Thankfully TGA look like they're going for the later,ie keep faith in what you know,coal globally is going to remain essential for electricity generation for the foreseeable future.Sure the price will fluctuate quite widely,but if TGA use they're FCF wisely no reason why they shouldn't be able to do more cheap bolt on acquisition's going forward.

[sogoesit] 23/2/2023 09:50

Out of curiosity do folks measure investment trades in capital only or on the basis of Total Returns (ie capital plus dividend payouts) when making decisions about stopping out?

(Obviously, with this stock, as in any very high yielder and a wasting asset, in run-off the end capital value should be nil but to obtain a return the investment should be held for the term of the run-off.
Of course the run-off strategy may not apply any longer if they decide to keep adding reserves).

[1knocker] 22/2/2023 15:31

Better to be a buyer of TGA when the price of coal has halved than when it has doubled.
I started a position only days ago at 1009, and completed it at 888 for an average of 952. I hope that is not going to prove overoptimistically high, but TGA comes with the speculative sector of my portfolio and thus a relatively small maximum holding, so no scope within my self imposed rules for any more than one further (very small) top up if the price continues to fall. Maybe it will turn out that at 952 I was both far too late and too early to get in. Time will tell. Patience and crossed fingers and toes are now the order of the day for me with TGA.

[johneee] 22/2/2023 11:29

Even power stations need this coal , whether they are operating 24 hours a day or just 2 hours a day

Coal is king in SA

So must be market makers pushing the price down
as no other reason when TGA product is in demand and high quality

[johnrxx99] 22/2/2023 07:23

The market appears to be fixated on SA's crumbling infrastructure and corruption. Until power and transport is at least maintained, confidence will wain. A good divi can't make up capital destruction.

[e43] 21/2/2023 14:49

Added a few more ,911p, the drip drip down in RCB price is painful.

[sbb1x] 21/2/2023 14:46

Market cap 1.2b.How much cash they got now?Surprised this hasn't bounced yet, got to rise when they announced the 2 pound plus dividend in March.

[sogoesit] 19/2/2023 14:28

Last Friday's Coal Hub review:



(Coal substitutes for renewables in Germany so ARA prices have edged up).

[sogoesit] 19/2/2023 13:24

Yes, £1.90 net (£2.4 gross) looks about right if taking R11bn net cash remaining with a 75% payout (assuming the AUD335m is paid out in cash from the end year position; which I doubt as Completion is still some months away and the deal is "locked box" from 1/1/23).
For me £3 gross is still on the cards.

[1knocker] 17/2/2023 16:40

Why down? Coal is an unfashionable commodity, SA is an dubious jurisdiction, and the SA railways and ports are a nightmare and look more likely to deteriorate further than to improve in the short to medium term. There just is not the capital available which is needed even for routine maintenance, let alone replacement of clapped out plant.. Also, I guess that some of those who have made a decent capital gain are happy to bank some of that with energy prices generally in the doldrums.

On the other hand, while coal prices will no doubt fluctuate, it has a future for many years to come, and SA is not a hotbed of ESG virtue signalling. The Aussie purchase also seems a good move to me. It should add a bit of ballast and somewhat de-risk TGA.

I recently started to build a position at 1005, hoping that last year's froth had blown off at that price. I had a limit order in to buy more at 905, and have just reduced that to 890. If That triggers, I shall be a happy bunny. In a volatile market, you never know. I like to have a few lowball buy limit orders in, and a few high ball sells. Most don't trigger, but the odd one does, and they can be very profitable.

[planit2] 17/2/2023 16:24

I thought so and added earlier.

Would probably buy more if they dropped further, have 900,810 and 725 targets. But doubt we will get there as TGA are holding 65%+ of the market cap in cash even after the acquisition.

My workings say £1.90 dividend per share if they pay excess cash after the acquisition. Makes dividend yield of 50% for this year.

It would be good to get a lot more information out of management with the results. Having better visibility going forwards might help the share valuation.

[sbb1x] 17/2/2023 14:48

Opportunity to buy ...

[sogoesit] 10/2/2023 17:05

In my book the Ensham acquisition is a cheap, very cheap, deal.

At 2022's price level it adds 0.75 x AUD670m = USD350m = ZAR6.2bn to profits.
Their coal is also sold forward at least 8 months for the current year "locked box" from 1/1/23.

We don't know the cash cost of production but, if it is in the lower tier of Oz Coal Mines (approx. USD50/t) and if the price of coal falls to $75/t it is still highly profitable. On an NPV10 basis I reckon this deal alone is worth £5/share at $75/t coal!

If the share price falls much further the SA coal could approach becoming for free!

(Always unhappy to be proved wrong, of course ;-) )

[wolfofhounslow] 09/2/2023 16:44

Wtf is happening here

[welsheagle] 09/2/2023 11:12

What is an accurate dividend percentage yield figure for Thungela.

[davetedjack] 09/2/2023 09:29

Why is the share price under so much pressure here? 40% down since early December.

[tempted] 07/2/2023 16:09

Agree. Emailed the company, anticipation that results will be on 27th March.

[1knocker] 07/2/2023 12:56

I'd rather hear some good news about the SA railway and port operations. We can mine the stuff, and can sell the stuff, but we do need to get the stuff onto the high seas. Perhaps the next acquisitions should be railway and a port!

[tempted] 07/2/2023 11:51

Appears the largest holder increased, see RNS, noted this edging upwards during Feb, be good to see a upwards trend to next months results.