Thg Share Discussion Threads

[sankshiela] 12/7/2022 10:17

Mrs Immons has been deramping and creating FUD for over a year on this share. The deary tried coming back to lse yesterday but was chased away again

What’s your agenda MRs Immons - you seem such a rotter

[toastyakatoansy] 12/7/2022 10:11

Ole Simmons at it again. Reduce the margin as he sees fit to make his narrative work.

So enlighten us Simmons. You say you could not invest in THG for 3/4 years. What is your interest here? You have been posting for over a year here your calculations lol. Just trying to help the little man or trying to scare off new investors. To be clear to everyone else. Margins have been conservatively placed at 6 percent this year not 5 and Matt has said along with Citigroup broker note in last weeks which was a 68 page detailed note that they expect medium term margins to go Up to 9 to 10 percent by 2025 in line with what Matt has forecast. Of course Simmons figures looks bad when he takes percents off the margins as he sees fit.

His only goal is to keep his negative narrative at the top of the boards to put off new investors. Plain and simple. He ignores and deflects and any comments and won’t answer any questions. I real scum of a person. Possibly the lowest of the low. If you look at the posting history he does this with every share. I don’t see one share he “invests”; in. His business is to spread FUD via serial accounts.

[sankshiela] 12/7/2022 09:29

You re a scum bag Malta jellied - a total and utter troll, fake news spreading, slanderous scum bag

[maltajellied] 12/7/2022 09:26

Back in the 70s again

[maltajellied] 12/7/2022 09:24

The other thread is back up and running

[srs8] 12/7/2022 09:22

what is wrong with you Mrs Immons.

THG have clearly guided to what they believe capex (200m)/ finance costs (100m) to be on their FY - they also guide to it falling to capex to 5-6% of turnover/ finance costs to be 75m in the next 2-3 years

with revenue at 20-25% and free cash flow neutral in 2022, and positive in 2023 onwards

they also clearly guide to flat ebitda in 2022 (161m), and then 9-10% in mid term so:
2023 revenue: 3180, ebitda 280-300m
2024 revenue: 3800, ebitda 343-380m


I love they way you think you know better than the management (and the chairman who just spent 1m of his own money at his own discretion) to buy shares

your arrogance knows no limit - you are a twerp

[mrsimmons] 12/7/2022 09:07

My FCF calc.

Annual capex is 150 m for the next 4 years.
Interest is c. 40m (including rent).
Exceptionals 30 m.
Working capital let’s say is neutral.

So the annual cash outflow is 220m.

Let’s say revenue grows to 2.5bn this year and they manage to hold margin at 5%. That’s 125m inflow.

They are still losing c.100 m a year. Less than what they lost in 2021.

They basically need to grow revenue to 4.5bn at 5% to break even cash. That will take at least 5 years. Of course when you grow revenues you get working capital outflows - maybe factor them in at 5% of revenue growth.

In short I can’t see a pathway in the medium term to positive cash FCF. Unfortunately it is not investable for me atm.

Regards

[toastyakatoansy] 12/7/2022 09:03

RE the lack of updates. They have said clearly they will update consistently with last year. Last year It was September for a full half year report. Whilst agreeing i would like to see an update this would not be in line with last year. Let’s see if they rush one out due to the share price getting hammered.

[toastyakatoansy] 12/7/2022 09:00

I retract the nasty bit about his wife. I have no evidence if I am speaking to a man or a female. However the language and terminology used suggests I am talking to someone connected to investment bankers/hedge funds. They also suspiciously quote a Numis report that was only out that morning and was not publicly available. Thg cost Numis millions when they binned them pre ipo. Since then Numis has had to report itself to the FCA and has consistently came out with only negative reports. I have no doubt that there is a direct connection or a loose connection. BLDM/Simmons and a few others all sing from the same hymn sheet and are connected in the city. They only know how to read broker reports. They know nothing of real detail and don’t tune in for investor calls etc, so they are easy to call out as I have done many times. Pretty sure our resident foul mouth Sanks has sold up but hasn’t said it. He may chirp back in but he has sold or as he would say it his thing has left the mahogany table haha.

So we have had the same arguments over and over on free cash flow and margin. Let’s just wait and see. There is no get rich quick scheme. If it was easy everyone would do it and there would be no one to serve me my coffee.

[mrsimmons] 12/7/2022 08:59

My other problem with this management team is the lack of updates. The half year is done and there should be a trading update out by now. Instead any potential investor has to wait until September when it is old news.

In these fluid times news flow should be more than once every 5 months. Not good enough. Again it is indicative of the inexperienced management team.

Toasty re price- they said they won’t be putting up price to combat inflation and hence why the margins will be down. At the time tpmost thought inflation was transitory but that is now almost certainly not the case. Another blunder by the management team. I wouldn’t be surprised if margins fall to close to 4%.

Either way they will need more debt to shore up the balance sheet. They need to set out a clear pathway to fcf generation which atm looks Miles away.

I will be updating my Fair value this week.

[bwana4] 12/7/2022 08:53

SRS8, I second that motion. I agree completely about your statement of the above post.
I have him on Filter though.

[sankshiela] 12/7/2022 08:43

John09 - I second we should ban Malta jellied. He kept pestering me to sell time and time again. I don’t know why he is so angry at thg but he uses fake news and misinformation

[srs8] 12/7/2022 08:42

Please ban Maltajellied - hes a mug of the highest order, and dishonest. Pretended to be a shareholder, then was proven to be a troll and trying to make people lose money.
total scum bag

[maltajellied] 12/7/2022 08:32

john09 12 Jul '22 - 00:23 - 192 of 193
This is a no nonsense thread. Banning enforced

Behave

That sounds suspiciously like "say what I want to hear or I'll ban you"

[john09] 12/7/2022 00:23

This is a no nonsense thread. Banning enforced

Behave

[toastyakatoansy] 11/7/2022 22:54

Simmons

You have made two non factual comments in your post. Firstly you said I have placed my whole net worth in THG which as I’m sure you know isn’t true.

Secondly you said that THG have not increased prices. If you were a shareholder of THG you would know that they have increased their prices significantly and as much as 70 percent on lines like pure Whey. So you can quote Numis reports who i believe you work for as much as you like. The reality is their gross margins are very very healthy and Matt has seen an opportunity to gain even more market share by remaining competitive. When the inevitable price decreases happen as they always do then THG will make more money. Ingenuity with its high GP will make up a larger share and with beauty being reasonable stable Margins will increase back to 9 to 10 percent and I agree with the Citigroup broker note only weeks ago that gives a 12 month price target of 220 which they have applied a 30 percent discount to. They have also said the bull case is for 600.

So your paymaster Numis or whatever hedge fund you work for will attack the free cash flow which we have debated many times. You know who will be right. I will add more millions to my net worth and you will be a broke wannabe who will be no where to be seen like the last time when the share price increased. I didn’t sell a penny and have increased to 1.012 million shares and will keep increasing by 80k a month as long as share price stays down. We will see in some years who is right and who is wrong :) I look forward to creating you a very special video direct from Quinta do lago. See you then :) now go and enjoy another holiday with your ugly wife :)

[bwana4] 11/7/2022 20:40

Yes Please keep it at around these prices by the 19th. I never thought I would be happy to see the share price falling of a share that I hold in my ISA.
I will be very happy doing a couple of good top ups at around these prices.

[mrsimmons] 11/7/2022 18:55

Toansy - you keep making sarcastic comments which are not helpful. To you the management team seem to be beyond any reproach - even though the market cap of this dog has fallen 90%.

Refusing to put in price in this market is suicidal in my opinion. You can not ignore 9% cost inflation and try and offset it by cost savings. This is a bonkers strategy. Companies that have reported something similar have been pounded. It is also a race to the bottom on price. I had a FV of 90p on this but that was on the basis they would price properly which they are not doing.

All of this doesn't help FCF conversion which again will be poor this year. It is time for a shake up of the senior management team (below the Exe Directors). Once you lose GM in retail it is very difficult to reverse.

I can't invest even at these levels until they can show that margin is under control.

[hades1] 11/7/2022 17:53

Everyone now knows it can't be touched as long as MM has his Golden Share.

[toastyakatoansy] 11/7/2022 17:15

We see you in 3/4 years then Simmons. All the best now. Look after yourself. Keep saving hard and investing smart. We will surely miss you.

Your friend with his whole net worth in THG.

Toansy.

[mrsimmons] 11/7/2022 16:34

I still can't believe the management team here wrt not putting up prices to combat inflation. It is the wrong strategy IMO. They should have put up prices to maintain margin instead they are trying to be busy fools - growing the top line but losing it all in Margin. The market is clearly now expecting a further reduction to EBITDA Margins and pricing that in. The management team do not help themselves here.

I feel for people like Toansy/Griff who have their whole net worth in this stock. It must be excruciating watching the share price drip down knowing there is value there but Management has been completely unable to find it. Looking back at that last trading update the EBITDA margin they were quoting then - i can only see downside to that now. Mr Market sees the same thing.

I can't invest in this until i can see a pathway to +ve FCF and that is at least 3/4 years away I am afraid - especially with that annual cap-ex bill.

[sentimentrule] 11/7/2022 16:32

That’s the worry- no one seems to be even buying a position even at these prices. Even that dump boohoo caught a nibble and some yanks took 5% position