Thg Share Discussion Threads

[boix] 10/7/2022 16:10

Sankshiela - You are 100% correct.
These are the correct Whey prices to monitor - Whey Protein Concentrate
The correct information:



Note prices YR on YR US Dollar so increases are higher after conversion to Sterling or virtually any other local currency.

Pricing 22 vs 21
January +49.05%
February +56.38%
March +63.43%
April +62.59%
May +60.30%
June +58.67%
July +58.62%

Bad news and will certainly reduce margins.
Whey commodity prices are set in US dollars and the link has month on month pricing which is more encouraging but the absolute increases vs last year are staggering.
Looks like more misinformation on the LSE THG bulletin board?

Also expecting a significant foreign exchange hit in Sept update as all commodities(components, energy, products virtually everything!) are priced in US dollars and only 19% of THG revenues are generated in US. Also suspect local currency product prices have not increased to reflect stronger US dollar - margin reduction.

170-200p + now looks like a distant dream at least in the foreseeable future.
But bidders can come back in six months but MM doesn’t lose his golden share until Oct 23?

[bwana4] 10/7/2022 14:11

Guys, I suggest everyone who is a share holder of THG read the link at the bottom of the post above and find any reason to sell your shares in THG. I have read it thoroughly and will be buying more shares.

I have solved my problem of my finance as well.

BEG results are out on the 19th of this month. The share price still has to go up there I am sure. It has been the best performer in my portfolio this year.
After our results in September here. I will have funds to buy BEG again. BEG is a tuck away share for me. That will make THG long term hold too. Except I will be holding more shares in THG. Though I am sure I will have to pay more. The chart tells me that. I am hoping in a way that the gap does not close by the 19th.
Have a good weekend all share holders.
ATB.

[sankshiela] 10/7/2022 14:01

On whey, should we not be looking at whey concentrate - which is actually still rising rather than sweet whey ?

hxxps://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=grafici_siero#eu

[bwana4] 10/7/2022 13:47

Another great post by 1Pencil. Remember he put all the links on here to help us guys.

Extracts from 2021 full year accounts. As per previous commentary, whey prices almost back to July 2021 levels.

"Adjusted EBITDA of £161.3m, at a margin of 7.4% (vs 9.3% in FY 2020) reflects FX movements, company investment in talent and infrastructure, increasing raw material costs (principally whey), and freight costs which saw a marked acceleration in H2 2021."

"The full year effect of anticipated improvements primarily expected in the second half across whey commodity prices, business model efficiencies driving improved operating leverage and increased Ingenuity Commerce revenues, all support continued margin recovery in 2023 and a return to 9.0% to 10.0% adjusted EBITDA in the medium-term."

"Our medium-term margin confidence is supported by the transitory nature of a proportion of the cost inflation pressure, particularly concerning whey input costs which we expect to stabilise in H2 2022; the partial offsetting of non-transitory labour cost increases by automation; and increased revenue participation of Ingenuity Commerce which is margin accretive."

[bwana4] 10/7/2022 13:33

Compliments of Sp28 from LSE.

I could not agree more. All I can add is don't sell your shares. All the Shorts want to do is frighten PI's into selling !! Ignore the FUD posters. By the was I have not many intelligent FUD posters either. The share price is itching to go to £1+ by my chart. Check it out. It is posted above these posts. DYOR etc, :0)

BETTER THAN A BUY!!!!!
(A really good post by someone at the time explained)

MM bought charity foundations shares, and the foundation will still retain all benefit when the share price goes up!!

MM basically said, no way you selling at this price, I will give the charity money from my own pot, doesent matter about the opportunity cost of the £2.5m, i will then also give you all the money on top when the share price goes up, chill! But no chance in the world you selling anywhere down here!

Hardly anyone else in this postition would have taken this option, tells you everything!

Well' guys I am not selling. I have been saying that all along. So,I am not the only one !! Others think the same as me too.
GLA holders.

[sentimentrule] 09/7/2022 18:33

MrsImmons is a total bell, she also popped up on LSE Thg forum…haven217;t been scared off over 6 weeks ago. One of life’s bigger losers….

[bwana4] 09/7/2022 13:18

Good afternoon Hades1.
A very good read and thanks for posting it on this thread.
I personally would be happier if THG stayed independent. I think given time it could be very successful business over time.
Why do I think this is because the COVID19 pandemic has changed the habits of the jo public in this country. People have found out that shopping on the internet is much easier. Secondly most shopping malls are having difficult renting property.
Many towns have lost a lot of retail business. Rents are high and rates on top don't help much. So we are watching the death of our high streets here.
Small businesses have been very adversely effected.
Many are going bankrupt. There is a lot of small to medium sized mergers and acquisitions taking place right now too IMO. Quite a few bankrupt businesses too.
Hence I hold BEG,FRP and K3C in my portfolio. AIMHO of course. NAI here.
It is a lovely day and I am doing more gardening today.
ATB.

[hades1] 09/7/2022 10:10

Found something positive
Suggestion that PE might return if macro economic conditions deteriorate further - Towards end of 2022 following the next 30%+ energy price hikes?

[boix] 09/7/2022 09:47

Perhaps it’s time to take a broader perspective?
Overall markets.
Worth a listen with an open mind - if you can’t don’t bother.
Remember given that nothing new will likely be reported until mid/late Sept THG should broadly follow the markets.



Analysis updated weekly.

[peanut100] 09/7/2022 08:14

Write a put option for sept or Oct if they have any option contracts trading.

[bwana4] 09/7/2022 01:00

Thanks to Holy1 from LSE. Have a good weekend all.

RE: Ocado comparisonFri 15:32

Thanks for the thread Hosai/MSG. A few more strengths for THG:
1. Ocado Retail is 90% of Revenue and is impacted more by food inflation, which is ahead of overall retail inflation driven by Ukraine conflict (cereals price up 37%). BRC measure Health & Beauty at c. 2.0%.
2. Toluna Cost of Living Survey shows some indication that consumers are less likely to cut back on H&B categories and claim to be less impacted by them compared to grocery, which was No1 in the study.
3. Despite the doom and gloom on the economy the health & beauty market is continuing to hold up well. Last month, Total market up +6% YOY, with Beauty up +11.5% (High growth in all areas, especially Cosmetics and Fragrance).
4. Despite winning online last year, THG still have relatively low share so lots of opportunity to grow, especially with the decline/closure of Department stores.
5. THG Ingenuity has the opportunity to grow much faster, is attracting a lot of interest from big H&B brands / retailers as they look to save costs, through both logistics and digital capability. I'm hoping they reveal some big names soon.

[bwana4] 08/7/2022 18:38

Good evening guys.
1)The Chart has told me that we are in an uptrend.
2) We will close that Gap for sure. This will all of a sudden go up to £1.1 or there about.
Time will of course answer this. Watch this space !
When that happens, you can thank me only when the Gap closes.
Believe me Charting over time has done wonders for me. I have a big chunk of money coming to me. Unfortunately it won't be coming until the middle of September !!
I will get it when I am back in Cyprus. I may go T20. Unless someone knows a better way. Or I may pay a visit to my Bank.
LOL, I should stop giving my money away. Ah well' I am happy.:o) Very happy invested here too. Not too long until the results in September. Patience required.
Have a good evening. It sure is a beautiful Evening.
ATB.
PS.
The two posts above R & T,s post are on Filter.

[roughandtumbleone] 08/7/2022 16:14

So the tug of war continues...They don't want it to turn blue but as that free float gets squeezed tighter and tighter, those needing to close out their shares on loan is going to find it difficult particularly as we keep taking more and more.Remember we are only 15% above the all time recent low so consider that what you also look back at the recent TR1 released...Time for some more ??

[sankshiela] 08/7/2022 15:07

79p now vs bids of 170p/ maybe even 200+… and shareholders given no choice. Not cool

[bigt20] 08/7/2022 13:39

bwana4,

Does Ocado have leases?

You stated: 'Clearly THG is a better investment in comparison with Ocado.'

--> Compared to Ocado, I agree.

[bwana4] 08/7/2022 12:34

Clearly THG is a better investment in comparison with Ocado.
Thanks to MSG4GO from LSE.

For me and for my long term positions, I start with Balance Sheet. The comparison between Ocado and THG, Ocado seems to be overpriced for their net assets. They have £1.7 billion of net assets and their market cap is £7 billion, in contrast THG has similar net assets but a market cap of less than £1 billion (Of course for THG there is £1.5 billion of intangible assets, which maybe a bit overstretched within the current inflationary environment vs Ocado £0.5 billion).

About borrowings, Ocado has £1.3 billion of borrowings while THG has something less than 0.5 billion.

Ocado
hxxps://www.ocadogroup.com/media/qwlchfvz/ocado-group-annual-report-2021-full.pdf

THG
hxxps://dl8hes3yo0qpy.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/09101431/Annual-Report21-FINAL-linked-compressed.pdf

[billionarebob] 08/7/2022 09:58

I forgot to say you can always put prices up to increase your margins AFTER you have taken customers away from your main competitors. That's what a clever business man would do :)

Consumers will hunt out the best deals now their spending power is being reduced due to inflation.

Why follow the herd when you don't have to?

[billionarebob] 08/7/2022 09:49

Whey prices falling off a cliff, 1 billion pounds of investment last year on automation and fulfillment centres now coming to fruition. Cult for example now 50% more efficient now it has moved north to Manchester. Growth targets of 22% - 25% are still on track as is the 2023 9% EBITDA.

500 mill in the bank. I think they will be OK. Why put the prices up when you will gain even more of the market share when your main competitors are forced to increase because they do not have the luxury of 1 billion pounds worth of investment.

Oh, and by the way that 1 billion from softBank at the high-end Market Cap was the best bit of business MM EVER did :)

[sentimentrule] 08/7/2022 09:39

Hahahaha that pric MrsImmoms is back
Oh dear oh dear oh dear

[bwana4] 08/7/2022 09:19

Good morning guys.
I don't think anyone has bothered to look at the Chart !!
The Gap is there for everyone to see and how the trend is going at the moment .
Like they say " You can take a horse to water, but it is up to the horse to drink or not ".
GLA for today.