Thg Share Discussion Threads

[wolfofhounslow] 04/3/2022 16:03

Money moving to energy stocks...oil mostly

[bldm] 04/3/2022 16:02

Can you eat makeup? Cause with what's coming, you might have to. Or burn it for heat. Oh well, a world hunger might be good for the US and us - it's one way to get the fatsos BMI down!

[billionarebob] 04/3/2022 15:43

I know this is an old video but for those who have not seen it, it is a good watch.

hxxps://blogscdn.thehut.net/static/thg/video/thg-agm.mp4

Change hxxps in address to https advfn blockers have changed the address

By the way in 2021 they smashed targets apart from EPITDA which they missed out on by a fraction of a percent.

It makes you appreciate what 2.2 Billion turnover business looks like :)

[bldm] 04/3/2022 15:16

1apache, mate you do realise that the price can move without anyone buying or selling right? volume is not what move the price. With daily volume of ~ 8 million, do you honestly think that anyone here can affect the price materially? First, why would I need to convince you when this thing drops 5% on a daily basis, lol. It's not like I missed the train and I want to stop the rally or something.

[1apache] 04/3/2022 14:01

So what is your short position?

[1apache] 04/3/2022 13:57

Can’t think…

[bldm] 04/3/2022 13:57

What I don't get is why are there always sales on myprotein? It's literally on sale 45% all the time. It's like those "going out of business" shops that are always going out of business for years.

[billionarebob] 04/3/2022 13:49

Both these guys have no shares and want you to sell, why?

[bldm] 04/3/2022 13:33

Yup, look management needs rejig. Come on, it's already on its knees. MM needs to be removed - he can keep his golden share so that there isn't a hostile takeover. Strangely though how people here want a takeover. I've always said that wanting a buyout and being optimistic on THG and buying more are incompatible. At the moment, you can't even get out - all you can do is hold and hope it doesn't fall further. Told you to get out.

[mrsimmons] 04/3/2022 13:01

For me the management team is the biggest worry. Too young and too inexperienced. They still dont realise what the problem is - they are growing revenues at terrible margins. They have not got ahead of supply chain inflation and this is now hurting the margins. EBITDA margin will be downgraded again next month IMO and that is key. The market is pricing that in I think.

SANKS - where are you pal?

[billionarebob] 04/3/2022 12:31

bldm there will be an RNS update on all these factors
a) softbank deal (b) chairman (c) restructuring (d) PE Interest is imminent and we just have to be patient.

When we do get an RNS release about the 'break up' it will show that there is more value in the split than the group as a whole.

Current market cap of just over 1 billion is undervalued by all the analysts and this is why a lot of investors are saying THG is massively oversold.

Look at THG Ingenuity for example forecast to turnover £500M with EPITDA of 60%. I won't copy paste current Ingenuity prediction for 2022 unless you ask me to but they are smashing targets and Ingenuity is currently priced at zero by the market.

[bldm] 04/3/2022 12:19

bigT20 if you backtest the analysts reports, you find that it's a toss of a coin. Don't trust analysts reports. Not to mention that this game is all about timing. If we take a share X trading at £1 and it goes to £5 in 5 years, it can very easily pass through £0.2 on its way to £5. And it very easily can spend 4 of those 5 years under £1. It is shameful that the company has released no information on (a) softbank deal (b) chairman (c) restructuring. Shameful. This is not how you treat shareholders current or potential!

[billionarebob] 04/3/2022 12:14

BigT20 - RBC 25th January this year, 6 weeks ago, this is what they said:

RBC Capital ups rating on THG to 'outperform'

Tue, 25th Jan 2022 12:12

(Sharecast News) - RBC Capital Markets upgraded THG on Tuesday, arguing that it saw "fundamental value" in the shares.
Shares in the e-commerce specialist, formerly The Hut Group, have lost 40% so far this year, and are now down more than 80% over the last 12 months.

THG specialises in selling beauty and nutrition products as well as providing e-commerce services for other companies. But the stock has suffered as investors questioned its corporate governance, strategic technology and the valuation of its core business, THG Ingenuity.

The firm also warned last week that it would miss full-year profits guidance following fluctuations in forex and commodity prices.

But in a note published on Tuesday, RBC said: "Amid the controversy around THG, we see fundamental value in the shares. Our analysis of Ingenuity's potential suggests SoftBank's valuation might indeed be reasonable, rather than fair-fetched.

"With the shares down a further 60% in the last three months, top line earnings expectations reset and catalysts ahead, we see risks skewed to the upside from here."

RBC upped its rating to 'outperform' from 'sector perform'. It left its price target unchanged at 500p.

As at 1200 GMT, shares in THG were ahead 3% at 124.55p.

In May 2021, THG struck a $2.3bn deal with Japanese conglomerate Softbank. Under the terms of the deal, Ingenuity will be spun into a separate company with Softbank having the option to acquire a 19.9% stake for $1.6bn, which values the unit at around $6.3bn.

A number of analysts and investors have since challenged that valuation, however, with some sceptical the deal will complete.

RBC said: "We sympathise with the challenge in valuing Ingenuity. Indeed, it is what previously kept us on the sidelines.

"However, its momentum in the 2021 full year - we believe its site order book more than doubled - and improved disclosure have been overlooked.

"We project that Ingenuity Commerce could increase tenfold to £0.5bn of revenue in five years, with at an EBITDA margin of around 60%, drives our discounted cashflow valuation for the segment of £4.4bn. Yet the market is attributing no value at all."

RBC added that it did not expect Softbank to walk away.

[bigt20] 04/3/2022 11:58

billionarebob 4 Mar '22 - 09:38 - 12162 of 12177

Are RBC used by THG?

Re Analysts comments - what date were the comments made on?

[bldm] 04/3/2022 11:57

In all fairness, if I were a holder, I wouldn't sell here. I still maintain my price target of ~80 as fair value. Problem is, plenty of shares that fall under their fair value...At this point, you need to hold and get out when it jumps. The window to have gotten out of this is gone. Might as well bite the bullet and hold for the next few months and see if this recovers but I'm a bit sceptical. As for me, I'm tempted to buy just to vote MM out.

[billionarebob] 04/3/2022 10:49

On the 26th February 2022 bldm said this about me:

You can play Bob like a fiddle and he won't even notice.

He is not a nice person he is a manipulator so please do not listen to his fiddling and don't give him your money :)

[bldm] 04/3/2022 10:45

No, inflation is, more accurately, an increase in the supply of money which surpasses the expansion of output of an economy. Increase in costs affect your bottom line but even without an increase in costs, inflation reduces the value of your revenue and earnings in real terms. Here, you'll also have increase in costs because they don't hedge. Not a pretty picture - market is pricing this accurately. No guarantees that margin won't fall to 4% which on 2.5 billion is 100 million. They can't survive on 100 million a year. Raise prices and you slow down growth. Then you are no longer a growth company and you are hoping to be priced as a growth company. And if you aren't growing, you are stuck with 100 million/year. Hence the price of £1.

Not to mention, that exactly 1 week ago, a war involving Russia broke out. It looked like THG might be close to bottoming out about 1 week ago but it is now a new script, new game and it's not positive for THG. Don't bet the house on this one!

[billionarebob] 04/3/2022 10:42

bldm what about the new chair, the group split, the PEs circling you are not mentioning them, and instead you are flavoring the pot in a negative way to suit your own personal gain.

New investors do not be fooled by bldm, read his old posts and you will see that he is not a friendly investor trying to save you money this is what he wants you to believe.

Only a couple of weeks ago he was saying things were improving at THG?

[bldm] 04/3/2022 10:35

If this is tech bubble 2.0, then the stocks have a lot further to fall before bottoming...and a lot of tech stocks took 10 years to get back to 2000 levels. See the charts...start with Cisco - one of the best tech companies around. Microsoft only went back to its 2000 prices in 2015. Hah, hope this is not tech bubble 2.0 because you won't get your money back for 10-15 years! No way to spin this positively.