Thg Share Discussion Threads

[boix] 05/3/2022 22:19

Not sure the rumours were myths but unless they find someone willing to take the next step then we are in trouble.
But I am hopeful.
Let’s rest.

[bldm] 05/3/2022 21:59

So what happened with the PE circling THG? Over the past 5-6 months, there have been various myths pushed by the longs in an attempt to ramp the price...only thing is, you can't ramp the price with PIs - you can only trick them (intentionally or otherwise) into making a bad investment.

Like MC hammer said, can't touch this!

[terminator101] 05/3/2022 21:48

"THG share price drop nothing to do with the company"You keep,believing that if you want, but THG is down more than the rest of the market

[debsdowner] 05/3/2022 21:09

bob confused.com ?

I htink we are on different planes!

What I am trying to ascertain is on the IPO what did the founder make if anything apart from shares, then what has he sold since and what other gains has he made.

Now if you dont know these facts then you dont know much about the company and whether the founder could take the company private on his own or with a shared ownership.

I am just puzzled I have no intention of trading HUT at the moment just watching from the sidelines as I am a retail guru.

[billionarebob] 05/3/2022 20:41

You were going to post a link debs

[debsdowner] 05/3/2022 20:23

In the meantime no one has answered my earlier question is how much has the founder got in cash at the moment?

[debsdowner] 05/3/2022 20:22

lonrho,

Forecasts are meaningless in a changing economic crisis and consumer spend decline. DEBENHAMS had anaysts buy notes but the company went bust.

Have lost count of the number of companies I have watched and forecasts missed time and time again.

There was a massive amount of world debt before covid and covid distorted the market with a bounce back which in due course would result in a decline further down the line and now we have an oil crisis which is pushing up inflation and could send the west into a recession.

Some of these large companies will falter and end up losing money and there is now too much risk about all these private equity buy outs will be having second thoughts on splashing the cash.

BOOTS is an example one bidder withdrew last week and there isn't an appetite to spend with so much uncertaintly.

I wish everyone some luck here but the chart is saying sell at the moment.

[bldm] 05/3/2022 19:21

Right, so what is your fair value price estimate? I see a lot of talk how wrong we are (despite the market agreeing with us) and no price from you.

[lonrho] 05/3/2022 18:34

Well according to the Financial Times the 10 analysts giving 12 months price targets for THG have a median price of 470p with a high of 700p and a low, presumably Numis of 150p. Obviously Mrsimmons is not one of them.

[billionarebob] 05/3/2022 18:00

Mrsimmons we will have to beg to differ, I think THG will be split and that the market cap multiples of the separated groups will be more than the 750M you are valuing the whole group.

I have based your 750M market cap valuation on your 95p calculation minus what you think is a good entry point.

If the 750M market cap is too high please correct me

[billionarebob] 05/3/2022 17:49

Investments like tides, rise and fall and you have to try and find value were others find doubt. I agree investors are moving money into oil and thankfully I bought into oil back in March 2020 when they couldn't give it away, now I am reaping the rewards and will sell half my stake soon when I think it has reached its peak.When the war ends, inflation drops and folk increase buying online, cause that's the future then companies like THG will become fashionable again. To panic now and sell at these levels is the worse thing you can do. Buy at a level you are happy with and ride the storm.Buy cheap sell high and do your research.

[mrsimmons] 05/3/2022 17:23

Bob I said 95p FV yes. So I want in much lower than that to make a return. That was also predicated on them getting that ridiculous 200m a year capex spend down to 50m which this management team won’t do because they seem to be away with the fairies where money is spent like confetti. Just look at the LinkedIn profiles of the MDs of the beauty and nutrition division and honestly tell me that is who you would be backing with your hard earned cash. Can we not agree on that point? ie that they need experienced management in there to take this group to the next level. Not a 29 and 31 year old who have never worked anywhere else and were buying assistants 5 years ago. You must be dissatisfied with the share price performance so some change must be needed

[debsdowner] 05/3/2022 17:21

bob,

It has been a bad week but the world is looking at a potential economic crisis and interest rates are startig to rise.

When this happens there is a flee to safer assets, technology and risky companies are thefirst to flee.

If the market falls further next week most shares including HUT will fall.

In the last 7 days the world has changed and it could get worse.

[billionarebob] 05/3/2022 17:03

Difficult week but THG share price drop nothing to do with the company. Is this the bottom? bldm and mrsimmons seem to think so :)

[billionarebob] 05/3/2022 16:20

Griffo I know that but bldm and mrsimmons valuations are for the group not the split.

[griffo221] 05/3/2022 16:16

The group has already began its split. That's pretty easy to find ?

[billionarebob] 05/3/2022 16:04

Debs send us a link and we can all read how many shares he had to give up and at what price.They loaned 150M from Warrington Council but this has been repaid

[debsdowner] 05/3/2022 16:00

BIGT20,

Well that is another proposition I havent considered both need weighing up.

[debsdowner] 05/3/2022 15:58

What I mean is when HUT was listed he would have been given shares, then as I undertood the situation had to agree to sell part of his stake so he reduced control.

So what did he make from the sale to reduce his holding.

What I am trying to establish is how much money has he got in cash apart from his present stake in the business?

[bigt20] 05/3/2022 15:55

debsdowner

Doesnt the founder have a lot of property that was spun out of the company into a separate company before THG was listed?

Furthermore didnt Warrington council lend that separate company a lot of money?

[billionarebob] 05/3/2022 15:52

How much of a paper loss is the founder sitting on? How much has the founder given to charity? How many jobs has the founder created?When you say stake do you mean shares?

[debsdowner] 05/3/2022 15:18

Question?

How much did the founder make when he sold his part of his stake in the company because what he made would have an influence on whether he could take the company private?

Do you know billionairebob?

[billionarebob] 05/3/2022 15:07

I guess you know THG is massively oversold when 2 of its fiercest critics, bldm and mrsimmons tell you so :)

Yesterday bldm ( post 12178 ) said THG was fair value at 80p a share

And yesterday mrsimmons ( post 12202 ) gave THG a valuation of 95p a share which is 16% below the current share price.

This figure includes a 30% 'inexperience management' discount. If you take this 30% discount out of his valuation, I personally think it has no right being there, then even THG's biggest skeptic has THG trading at 46% below what he considers to be fair value.

This is what Mrsmmons said yesterday - let's say revenues settle down at £3bn a year at 5% margin (I see further margin pressure) and they cut the capex from the utterly ridiculous £200m a year to something like maintenance capex at say £50m then by my valuations it would be worth £3bn @ 5% = £150 FCF before capex £50 less rent £20m = £80m at a 8% discount rate gets you to c. 1.1bn. Add on cash they currently have gets me to an EV of £1.5bn. BUT I would want a 30% discount for the inexperienced management team which has to be swapped out ASAP so c£1.1bn is about right. About 95p a share.

These valuations from bldm and mrsimmons are based on the group not being split. I personally believe (like many others) that the group will be split and that there is far more value in the separation than the group as a whole.

There are several PE companies interested in THG and there will be an RNS update shortly that will inform shareholders about chairperson/PE interest and group restructuring.

I look forward to the next RNS update :)