Thg Share Discussion Threads

[topgunns] 04/3/2022 10:34

Stick around kids. See you at 10 quid a share.

This is tech bubble 2. We are now in 2001 and some stocks have bottomed; others will keep going down. I expect the market to have a decent (but not sustained) bounce later in the year but miles below new highs

U-shaped recovery in some stocks- you can see the U developing in the chart above. Could even be a 50p base given the current market but no worries.

[bldm] 04/3/2022 10:32

No, inflation is, more accurately, an increase in the supply of money which surpasses the expansion of output of an economy. Increase in costs affect your bottom line but even without an increase in costs, inflation reduces the value of your revenue and earnings in real terms. Here, you'll also have increase in costs because they don't hedge. Not a pretty picture - market is pricing this accurately. No guarantees that margin won't fall to 4% which on 2.5 billion is 100 million. They can't survive on 100 million a year. Raise prices and you slow down growth. Then you are no longer a growth company and you are hoping to be priced as a growth company. And if you aren't growing, you are stuck with 100 million/year. Hence the price of £1.

[billionarebob] 04/3/2022 10:26

bldm mentions the Q4 webcast from January this year, let's remind everyone of MM's opening statement from that webcast:

I am pleased to be reporting record full-year sales of 2.2 billion pounds in line with guidance following continued strong growth in the final quarter.

This is particularly pleasing considering the lockdown comparables from Q4 2020 and the wider challenging macro environment.

On a constant currency basis, the 2-year growth rate was circa 95% for both the full year and during Q4. Even after adjusting for M/A contributions we've scaled revenue and expanded our business model, particularly ingenuity well ahead of expectations given at our IPO 16 months ago.

At IPO we guided the market to 2021 revenues of circa 1.75 billion and are pleased to be reporting 2.2 billion including M/A which is roughly around 2 billion pounds excluding M/A.

And that growth has been broad-based with all our divisions once again delivering meaningful growth year on year. Notably, our Ingenuity Commerce proposition has delivered further significant growth in live sites during the year, with significant client wins in the 4th quarter contributed from Q1 onwards.

For the year as a whole ingenuity, Commerce revenues grew by around 135%.

2021 was also a year of significant investment for the group as we further developed capacity within our global fulfillment network which dispatched on average one million units per day during the peak trading week.

In the 2nd half of the year, we moved into our UK technology campus Icon bringing together fulfillment, print on demand, and personalization services and are content creation facility THG studios

We remain on track with our acquisition integration strategy notably for Dermstore and Cult beauty which were both migrated to the ingenuity platform ahead of schedule

During the year we invested around one billion pounds in support of our strategic growth plans adding 1 million square feet to our warehouse infrastructure, building new functionality across our technology, and also in strategic M/A

The group also created many new jobs during the year, with 3000 new colleagues joining the group both in the UK and internationally.

At this point, I would like to say on behalf of the management team here with me today a huge thank you to our talented team across the globe.

[1apache] 04/3/2022 10:25

The guys on here who have an interest in exerting downward pressure on this stock are pretty easy to identify.

[1apache] 04/3/2022 10:16

What is inflation if not an increase in costs?

[billionarebob] 04/3/2022 10:14

Investors will look to analysts' reports as a guide to investment - here is why.
---------------
The Value of Analyst Reports

Investment/brokerage/securities houses, asset management companies and other investment managers may issue analyst reports on individual companies or industries.

Analyst reports are generally written to offer guidance to investors as to whether to invest in specific companies or industry sectors.

Reports may focus on recent financials and their expected share price movements. Valuable insights are provided when analysts write about the current and future outlook for the state of the industry, based not only on financials but on interviews with top management, a review of peer performance and macro/micro-economic indicators, among other inputs.
----------------
Here is a link to the current analyst's reviews,

www.marketbeat.com/stocks/LON/THG/price-target/

You may have to add your email address to see the review but there is no charge. The analysts have THG upside from min 40% to max 314% there are no negative forecasts.

Analysts are privy to a lot more information and facts than bldm and the other negative posters on here. All the analysts have THG as oversold.

There are PE companies circling THG as I type this and there is an RNS update to be released very shortly.

Bldm we know lost money on THG so I think this is why he is so bitter. Anyways, do your own homework and don't believe everything you read on an internet forum. There are folks out there that are trying to manipulate you for their own personal gain :)

[bldm] 04/3/2022 09:57

@1apache I haven't even factored increasing costs!!! All I'm saying is that if your revenue grows 15% and inflation is 10% the REAL growth is 5%. Add to this increased costs. No, costs are NOT generally passed onto customers. What does "generally" means? In retail, you avoid passing on costs to customers - you hear this even in basic evening news. MM even addressed this on the Q4 call - they'll have to absorb some of the costs because you can't change your price from one day to the next.

Why do you think this is falling? Do you still believe MM that this is manipulated? What about all the other retail shares that are down 80-90%? Do you think all of retail is manipulated or could it be that retail is not the place to be right now?

[billionarebob] 04/3/2022 09:38

bldm and Mrsimmons, who are just here to offer negative advice on a share that they do not own, forget to mention that THG is being circled by several PE companies and that the THG group is being split up. When this happens the value of the split companies will be a lot more than the value of the current market cap.

For example, recent acquisitions in the beauty sector have been made more on company revenue multiples (THG beauty revenue £1.1 billion) than EPITDA or growth forecasts, and Ingenuity which is a part of the group currently valued at zero has recently been valued by RBC at 4.5 billion with a forecast turnover of 500 million (60% EPITDA) in 5 years.

Then there is Nutrition and OnDemand. The current market cap for THG Group is just over 1 billion so you can see when split how undervalued and oversold THG is

Every analyst has THG as oversold and these institutions are privy to a lot more information than Mrsimmons and bldm.

They also forget to tell you that there are a number of RNS updates due to inform shareholders of a new Chairperson, PE interest, and company break up. When any one of these RNS updates is released there will be a big bounce in the share price upwards.

Ask yourself why are they here offering negative advice day in day out, don't be fooled. Mrsimmons has never owed any THG shares and has no intention of buying any so you have to ask yourself why is he here? I can only think that it is some weird kind of obsession. Bldm we know lost money on THG so I think this is why he is so bitter. Anyways, do your own homework and don't believe everything you read on an internet forum. There are folks out there that are trying to manipulate you for their own personal gain :)

[1apache] 04/3/2022 09:32

Why are you basing revenue expectations around increasing costs only? These are generally passed on to the consumer. There are two sides to that equation not one

[bldm] 04/3/2022 09:29

Where are the rampers? Where are the posters who said we were scaring people and trying to trick them to sell their shares. Where is senseirule, sentimentrule, f56, srs etc? This share has only down to go, sell or lose even more. Unfortunately, you missed the bounce to get out and now are stuck in a share that has everything going against it and the company is headed by an id1ot.

[bricktycoon] 04/3/2022 09:21

76 p today the mms are about to crash this big time shareholders will be wiped out ps Jeff was a geek bro zero spending on the way up no 100 million personal loans yatcht in Mallorca etc till he made it this is doomed cash burn masssivev

[bldm] 04/3/2022 09:11

dev80, even if they compare this to amazon they forget to mention that THG started in 2004 (amazon 1994). In 20 years, amazon was already a ~ 180 billion company...so even if we compare to amazon, THG growth rates are nowhere near.

[mrsimmons] 04/3/2022 09:05

Good point on price in the revenue growth. This is down because of the read across from glanbia yesterday. I expect forecast margins will be down again when they announce next month. Unfortunately this business was a fad with very very poor management. It’s the management team which is my biggest reservation. Shocking.

Sanks where are you pal?

[bldm] 04/3/2022 09:04

@topgunns Comparing THG to amazon...amazon has a genius behind it (studied Physics at Princeton), the US growth engine and capital markets and the US economy and labour laws behind it. THG has none of that. Not to mention that when amazon started there wasn't an AMAZON to compete with! Hah, this is what the calibre of the bulls here is. Their analysis peaks at believing THG is the next amazon XD.

[bldm] 04/3/2022 08:55

Huge revenue growth? Really? Q4 update forcast revenue growth is 20-25%. Let's assume 22.5% growth. Inflation is at 7% and climbing and even before the war it was expected to reach 10%. Let's say be optimistic and assume inflation peeks at 10%. This means real growth is 12.5%. Hardly a growth company. This is an optimistic scenario.

If you are more cautious, there is a risk they don't grow 22.5% and inflation goes a lot higher than 10%.

Definitely not a buy of a lifetime because there are A LOT of retail companies that are down a lot. And if you want pure tech, you've got 10s of companies that are down 80-90% and are "a buy of a lifetime"

[dev80] 04/3/2022 08:54

Can people stop comparing Amazon to everything!! That was the first..THG are 10 a penny.

[topgunns] 04/3/2022 08:42

UK buy of a lifetime. Huge revenue growth and possibly a gem with ingenuity.

[bricktycoon] 04/3/2022 08:36

freefall this afternoon 70 s imminent dilution will wipe shareholders out mat on the yacht either way

[bricktycoon] 04/3/2022 08:35

10 p coming

[topgunns] 04/3/2022 08:20

Amazon at 5 bucks 2001

[bricktycoon] 04/3/2022 08:09

another 90 percent to go for fair value 10 p coming flash crash today will see this in the 70 s

[mcmather] 04/3/2022 08:06

90% down from its high just over 12 months ago...

[bricktycoon] 04/3/2022 07:26

massive gap down on open 50 p next week mms going to let this freefall today falling again harry styles

[average down mug] 03/3/2022 23:56

🤡☝A039;You know I don’t lie termite! If thg hits 53p I’m chucking in everything including my chick 🤦‍a92;️