Thg Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 18/1/2022 16:33

Poroinv - Confirmed your EBITDA projections just working through calculauins as to how they then are impacted to produce the losses per share.

[bldm] 18/1/2022 16:23

I don't have a good sense of the FX loss. Someone said it is comparatively large (90bps). What is a typical loss due to FX for multinational companies of this size?

Oh, this is 90bps to the margin...This is actually a positive to me - it is something that can be optimised out in the future with better finance/technology. It means their margin, without the FX problems would have been 90bps higher.

[propinv] 18/1/2022 16:16

Hi pugugly. Yep. Bashed out some post it note projected. EBITDA £210-220m for 22 and EBITDA £260-300m for 23. Guiding higher margin in 23 towards 9%+

[bldm] 18/1/2022 16:14

billionarebob - every company has its own share price path and it's not right to make comparisons. All I'm saying is to be a bit more cynical when it comes to THG. I hate to be the "party pooper" and the "I told you so" guy, especially when I'm long, but the company is very risky and needs to exceed expectations for price to turn around. Hopefully, if it's a great company it will have no trouble doing so in the next quarter or one after. All we are asking for them is to hit their targets (which they missed) and all we really want is for them to work a bit harder to exceed them.

[pugugly] 18/1/2022 16:08

Goldman PT 675
Liberum PT 700p
Both imo way over the top - Respective eps's for 2022 (e&oe) 0.64p and loss of 3p per share. Can anyone double check me as with thees forcast eps's the targets seem way out of line as also no dividends forcast,

Also so many caveats that they make Boris and his comments on the No 10 parties seem like the honest words of God.

Very much (imo) one to watch but not yet time to jump in.

Anyone else got a handle on eps for 2022 & 2023?

[billionarebob] 18/1/2022 16:00

*Plenty of british companies that are below their IPO price from 10 years ago*

Yes but how many of those companies dropped 75% in their first year after reaching IPO targets and stayed on a flatline for 5 years?

Would you like me to answer that one for you :) - NONE

[bldm] 18/1/2022 15:51

What is worrying is that the 75% drop has now persisted for a full quarter. It happens that sometimes quality companies share price crashes but usually it starts getting back up there comparatively quickly. My assumption of the future is that this is roughly the price level we'll be seeing and it would move sideways with a downward drift until THG blows the fish out of the water with beyond expectations results. You can hold this for 5 years, it doesn't mean it will go up. Plenty of british companies that are below their IPO price from 10 years ago.

[bldm] 18/1/2022 15:33

Yup, CEO blaming shorts is a massive red flag. At best it speaks of an incapable CEO - either immature, not knowledgeable and not in control of nerves/emotions. At worst, it's diversion/confusion tactics from deep underlying problems and quite often, fraud.

[bbmsionlypostafter] 18/1/2022 15:22

In full.



How to beat the shorts: THG edition


Matt Moulding’s empire warns on margins.

Jamie Powell 5 HOURS AGO

THG, or the artist formerly known as The Hut Group, had a 2021 to forget.

The £2bn protein-powder-slash-beauty-retailer-slash-wannabe-e-commerce-platform-provider, led by sun’s-out-guns-out chief executive Matt Moulding, saw its stock crater by 71 per cent over the course of the year as concerns over its governance, its Shopify-competitor-to-be arm Ingenuity, its relationship with SoftBank, and its gyrating strategic direction caused shareholders to vote with their feet.

So what do you do if your business is struggling to get its business case across to the market? Blame short-sellers of course.

And so it was with Mr Moulding who, at a GQ event held at yuppie nature reserve Soho Farmhouse in November, laid into this evil cabal of investors.


From The Times:

Moulding said THG shares had suffered from a “pretty aggressive short attack . . . You wouldn’t rob banks any more, you’d just do short attacks, you can get away with it, it’s legal. And essentially, it cuts across a few industries from media, investment banks, fund managers, hedge funds, etc.

“They come together. They’re not technically or legally together, but essentially operate in tandem.”


Ignoring the fact that attacks on short-sellers from chief executives have a storied history of being a reliable indicator to dump a stock, there is really only one way to get revenge against the bears: prove them wrong.

Perhaps the best example of this is Netflix chief Reed Hastings’ response to a note from short-seller Whitney Tilson way back in 2010. Writing on stock research site Seeking Alpha, he gently rebuffed Tilson’s points before — and this is the important part — delivering exceptional operating results at the company. Netflix went on to be one of the best performing US stocks of the decade, with a return of 4,135 per cent.

So, THG investors might have been hoping that the company’s fourth-quarter results, published Tuesday, would bring some early signs of recovery.


Womp womp, from the FT:

THG has said profit margins for 2021 will miss analysts’ forecasts but the UK ecommerce group expects them to recover this year.

Margins before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation will be 7.4 to 7.7 per cent against market expectations of around 7.9 per cent, largely because of exchange-rate variations, the Manchester-based group said on Tuesday.

It added that margins should improve throughout 2022 as investment in automation and new client wins offset inflationary pressure, though this will be weighted towards the second half of the year.


On the news, the shares are down 8.8 per cent at pixel time, to £1.69.

Let’s just hope the investor conference call, which kicked off just under an hour ago at the time of writing, goes better than the one in October -

[tomboyb] 18/1/2022 15:22

Climbing back up -

[bldm] 18/1/2022 15:01

That's so funny 🤣

[bldm] 18/1/2022 15:01

That's so funny 🤣

[dsmith19852301] 18/1/2022 14:58

80's hit inspired by sentiment rule

Llusion, illusion
Illusion, illusion
Searching for a company that's mine
There's another share, another time
Touching many advfn posters along the way, yeah
Hoping that I'll never have to say my
moneys just an illusion (ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah)
Illusion (ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah)
Illusion
Follow your gambling instincts anywhere
Is it building losses in the air?
Never let your share losses get you down
Open up your eyes and look around
THG was just an illusion (ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah)
Illusion (ooh, ooh, ooh, ooh, ah)

[dsmith19852301] 18/1/2022 14:54

Sentiment "The Gambler" Rule everyone

[dsmith19852301] 18/1/2022 14:54

it was just an illusion

[dsmith19852301] 18/1/2022 14:53

invested in THG to find

[dsmith19852301] 18/1/2022 14:53

he used to have money

[dsmith19852301] 18/1/2022 14:53

sentiment rule was just an illusion

[bldm] 18/1/2022 14:44

The only thing I can do is share my opinion and my position with small investors with the hope it helps them. Whether I'm long, neutral or short is irrelevant. What is relevant is if the my analysis makes sense and helps. So far my posts would have helped small investors. You my friend look like a pump-and-dump schemer. I'm sorry my posts are stopping you from pumping and dumping this. For the long term small investors, if this is a quality company, it will go up.

[maltajellied] 18/1/2022 14:44

Conspiracy theories!

[srs8] 18/1/2022 14:36

bldm, why do you pretend to own shares in THG. if you had a short you would be in profit. I dont understand you. why not just be honest and admit you are paid to criticise certain companies on these kind of forums and thg is one your employee has asked you to criticise

[bldm] 18/1/2022 14:33

About the Motley Fool article. I remember reading an article of theirs that covered THG a couple of months ago. I believe it was again around the time when thg was around 170. The author said he would leave it and advised against buying. Double check what I'm saying but I remember such an article. We do have a Q4 update now, but it's not enough in my opinion to change stance on this. I personally think the most likely situation from here is sideways with a slow downward drift.