Thg Share Discussion Threads

[allenquatermain] 18/1/2022 14:33

166p

Ch1ck boasted about buying at 172p

What a bellend

tee hee

[beltd] 18/1/2022 14:31

If anyone wants a reason to sell, a buy rating from Motley fool should be enough :-)On a serious note slowing sales growth, margin outlook and poor governance do indeed make it a speculative buy. Not sure how many speculative buys you'd want to hold at present in this sector. But good luck to those who chose to speculate

[maltajellied] 18/1/2022 14:29

This is hideous.
Could close at an all-time low today.

[nametrade] 18/1/2022 14:23

edit.

Sorry wrong thread.

[senseibull] 18/1/2022 13:57

Have we found a hard floor!?

[senseibull] 18/1/2022 13:57

10 million shares today so far says ur wrong

[dsmith19852301] 18/1/2022 13:37

where is sentiment rule

ladbrokes ?

[sr2day] 18/1/2022 13:15

don,t bet against the shorts.the price is high enough for them to take it to below £1.

[bldm] 18/1/2022 13:02

A useful exercise to do is to start using THG websites. I've recently purchased a few items from their own websites. I have to say, some are great. On the Coca Cola d2c site for example, you can get beverages at prices quite a bit cheaper than amazon or local supermarket. And get them delivered to your door too. Some other websites are almost like a school project. They are functional and everything, I just don't think anyone would be using them because of what they sell and the prices (e.g. cheaper on amazon). I'm sure they are more of a "we can put their name on our presentations" type of a thing. The other very obvious lesson is that their websites really work great - very fast and snappy - but they all have the same feel. The site for coke feels the same as the site for homebase and the one for beauty. This has it's benefits (e.g. familiarity) but is this realistic? Would coke want a website that looks like homebase's? Can a "tech" company not come up with a few different templates/looks/feels? You can always recognise a THG powered website by its feel and looks. And this is the other thing - the feel and look is a bit *cough* boring. Their own website is super glossy yet their client websites are as plain as it gets.

Anyway, no price and no revenue growth will alleviate my concerns around MM dodgy dealings and the recent CTO hire who has provable lies on his CV and is associated with a company which is almost provably lying as to the clients they have. At least this is how I read the facts I presented a few days ago - a company listing many clients on its website yet having no revenue and only £6k in assets. I could be wrong so do your own research.

[bldm] 18/1/2022 12:49

Uber is strange - it should be vastly profitable, yet management haven't oriented the business to start making money.I'd trust them more. I'll only say that it *should* be a very, very profitable company judging by their business model...yet it isn't. It's all about what price you buy it at. It's a bit like THG. Is 650 a price worth paying? Is 168 a price worth paying for this bet? Could you get it at 150 or 130 in a few months? Will it ever make it? Hence why I say, highly speculative but at these prices perhaps a bet worth taking.

[tomboyb] 18/1/2022 12:45

Thanks Billionaire Bob -

Motley Fool - (Last bit)

THG share price pressure
Despite its competitive advantages, the company is struggling to rebuild confidence in the City. Analysts are incredibly sceptical about THG’s prospects. The latest warning about profit margins has not helped improve sentiment.

That being said, I think the market is overreacting following today’s release. Sales growth of 38% year-on-year is incredibly impressive. What’s more, as I have tried to highlight above, every single retailer is having to deal with rising prices, so it seems strange that THG should be overly punished for something the rest of the industry also has to grapple with.

I think today’s decline is more of a reflection of general investor sentiment towards the business. The market seems to be looking for any reason to sell the stock.

For long-term investors, this could be an opportunity. In theory, equity prices should track underlying business performance in the long run, suggesting that if sales continue to expand, the THG share price should follow suit. And with that being in the case, I would be happy to buy the stock for my portfolio as a speculative investment today.

[bldm] 18/1/2022 12:45

As long as you understand that THG is *highly speculative investment*. I mean the damn thing is more volatile than crude or crypto!

[space_bob] 18/1/2022 12:42

UBER are unlikely to crack driver-less cars and their 'fat margins' are not really reflected the vast losses and the single profitable quarter of $8 million in the decade since they started. UBER is a platform. Ingenuity is a platform.

[billionarebob] 18/1/2022 12:42

Here is what it says:
Market sentiment

I think this downbeat outlook explains why the market is punishing the THG share price today. The company was already facing a lot of pressure heading into these results. It has been fighting off concerns about its corporate governance structure, growth outlook, and accounting standards over the past couple of months. Falling margins are just the latest headwind facing the business, although these are mostly out of its control. The entire economy is having to deal with the challenge of rising prices. Some businesses can pass these price rises on to consumers. Others are struggling.

As the firm’s update explains, these pressures are likely to remain an issue for the group for at least the next year.

Nevertheless, I think THG is better placed than many of its peers to navigate the uncertainty. The company has been built from the ground up using technology, and can use technology to reduce costs and improve efficiency.

The enterprise has also invested heavily in infrastructure over the past 12 months. It has spent £1bn building its order fulfilment technology, suggesting that the business has the infrastructure needed to meet rising order volumes and capitalise on the booming e-commerce market.
THG share price pressure

Despite its competitive advantages, the company is struggling to rebuild confidence in the City. Analysts are incredibly sceptical about THG’s prospects. The latest warning about profit margins has not helped improve sentiment.

That being said, I think the market is overreacting following today’s release. Sales growth of 38% year-on-year is incredibly impressive. What’s more, as I have tried to highlight above, every single retailer is having to deal with rising prices, so it seems strange that THG should be overly punished for something the rest of the industry also has to grapple with.

I think today’s decline is more of a reflection of general investor sentiment towards the business. The market seems to be looking for any reason to sell the stock.

For long-term investors, this could be an opportunity. In theory, equity prices should track underlying business performance in the long run, suggesting that if sales continue to expand, the THG share price should follow suit. And with that being in the case, I would be happy to buy the stock for my portfolio as a speculative investment today.

[billionarebob] 18/1/2022 12:41

Motley Fool has THG as a buy :)

[bldm] 18/1/2022 12:37

At least Q4 results answer my questions as to why MM wasn't buying back shares and why few insiders bought back any shares (apart from one loser who bought 25000 shares at 196).

[bldm] 18/1/2022 12:26

space_bob - I don't know much about Just Eat.

Uber is a tech company with a very simple software that is easy to replicate but they are the first, they are the largest, they are inventing and pushing the boundaries and ultimately they have a huge potential market and they can be insanely profitable (think freight, think food distribution - not just passengers). When they crack driver-less cars, this becomes a tech company or at the very least an even more profitable business.

Uber is totally different to THG. First, they are the market leader in a completely new industry that they invented. Second, they've got ton of cash. Lastly, they've got really fat margins.

THG has a valuable business that isn't easy to replicate (operations, distributions, relationships, manufacturing facilities, customers etc). As a company they do offer a solution that is unique but it's not because of their technology. Their most sophisticated technology is developed by others. I believe the deal with softbank is to also give them access to tech at least.

I think this is more of a realistic view of THG and is supported by their results - beauty is the fastest growing division and generates more revenue than the others combined.

[space_bob] 18/1/2022 12:14

"I'm personally less and less convinced (if it's possible) that THG is a tech company. They've got tech, but they are not a tech company. It's a "fake it till you make it" situation. They are more of an operations company which uses tech to reduce costs - this is not tech."

True to an extent, but the same applies to the likes of UBER and Just Eat. THG do have propriety software and systems, so where do you draw the line at being tech? Is Amazon (ignoring AWS) tech?

[leoneobull] 18/1/2022 12:11

Organic growth was in the teens, what does the market expect? There is a pandemic on, high inflation etc. Left Boo for tears on distribution and warehousing etc.

[leoneobull] 18/1/2022 12:04

Great set of results, minor ebitda change due to high whey prices for protein shakes and FX . Ebitda expected to increase in 2022

[bldm] 18/1/2022 11:42

Thanks doc (biotech). Margin falling is worse than revenue miss IMHO. The high evaluation this floated at was for a "tech" company with a high margin. Q3 update had quite a few questions about their margins and ingenuity. At the end of the day, revenue is great but what matters more is margin.

I'm personally less and less convinced (if it's possible) that THG is a tech company. They've got tech, but they are not a tech company. It's a "fake it till you make it" situation. They are more of an operations company which uses tech to reduce costs - this is not tech.

Basically, either THG is a tech company or it's not. If they are a tech company, then the recent CTO hire is substandard -> bad. If they aren't a tech company -> bad. Appalling situation.

22-25% in 7%+ inflationary environment isn't the 35% in non-inflationary environment...still good, but if they are burning cash at this rate, it's not great.

[maltajellied] 18/1/2022 11:40

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: '... only something spectacular will lift the share price...'

I've heard that said before somewhere. Wonder where?

[dr biotech] 18/1/2022 11:31

Growth and cash balance seem fine to me. Its the warning on margins thats the concern



---

Matthew Moulding, chief executive of THG, said: 'We are delighted to report significant growth across all divisions during the peak trading period and to have delivered record annual sales of £2.2billion.'

He added: 'The new year has started well, and we remain confident in delivering our strategic growth plans during 2022 and beyond.'

THG thinks its sales over the course of this year will rise between 22 per cent to 25 per cent.


Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: 'The only way THG is going to win back the market’s favour is if it delivers better than expected figures consistently for at least two or three quarters. Unfortunately, its latest update doesn’t pass the test as it flags margins are slightly below expectations.

'Under normal circumstances, a business delivering the level of growth seen in THG’s latest update would be applauded by the market. Sadly, THG has shot itself in the foot thanks to the way it has behaved as a listed company since joining the stock market. And that means only something spectacular will lift the share price.

'Failure to deliver the level of detail about the business desired by investors, questionable corporate governance standards, and comments by chief executive Matt Moulding that he wished he’d never floated THG all amount to bad practice as far as investors are concerned, and they’ve voted with their feet which has left the share price languishing well below its IPO price.

'The fact THG is guiding for revenue growth to slow in 2022 is even more reason for disgruntled investors to keep shaking their heads in disbelief.

'Online companies that pitch their story as rapid growth need to live up to the hype. So far THG is coming across as an ill-trained runner which has brought sprint tactics to a marathon and found it can’t sustain momentum at top pace.'

The Manchester-based group's share price has fallen sharply in the past year amid mounting concerns over governance at the business.

In response to these concerns, Mr Mounting pledged to appoint an independent chair at the company, dish up more information about Ingenuity and vowed to end a 'special share' takeover defence earlier than scheduled.

[pre] 18/1/2022 11:20

Agree tomboyb there are some really uniformed posters out there, read the rns it clearly states cash over £530m