Thg Share Discussion Threads

[sbb1x] 14/1/2022 16:21

When's the update

[sankshiela] 14/1/2022 14:25

BLDM= banana

[bldm] 14/1/2022 10:46

Thanks Merrick - insightful as usual.

I don't understand the idea behind THG selling off beauty and nutrition. It is premature at best and I think this is what you've alluded to. I also don't understand why split the company at all on H1 2022. Today we have many companies that are conglomerates and it is rare for a company with leadership aspirations to do just a single thing. Take Amazon for example - retail, distribution, cloud = hw + SW. THG is small (by international standards) too so I don't see a split as a positive - make something small even smaller. You could make a case for Amazon splitting out AWS because they are huge but they are an example, one of many, of a huge company managing very different divisions and keeping them together. Is THG split a gimmick to increase the market value in the short term but with negative effects in the long run?

Let's see how it goes. I am going to be happy with a TU that doesn't crash the price! 😂 If MM mentions shorts or the FCA...

[merrick1965] 14/1/2022 10:39

i do believe sales will be up (but please remember ipo sales targets are very high and they must Be positive on cost management to reduce loss at a time when inflation costs spiking

[srs8] 14/1/2022 10:35

when theres a trading update (which could also include divisional structural updates and chair updates) charts are useless....doesnt work that that kiddo

[maltajellied] 14/1/2022 10:33

Hi srs - yes, that describes my unsuccessful trade on THG very accurately. And I'm definitely not Warren Buffett hahaha. I think that is very obvious.
But what I posted isn't "insight" or "advice", it's a fact. If THG doesn't close above 194.4 then it's a down week.

[srs8] 14/1/2022 10:26

Didnt you buy at 230 (the highest point for a while) and sell at 180 (lowest point for a while) - you ll excuse me if I dont take your advice or insights. not exactly warren buffet are you malta

[soleman1] 14/1/2022 10:25

Close could be 180 or 200, I'm expecting some fireworks this afternoon. Weekly doesn't really matter if next week has volatility it will likely passify this weeks candle either way.

[maltajellied] 14/1/2022 10:19

Needs to close today above 194.4 or it's another down week.
Good luck for Tuesday all holders.

[sankshiela] 14/1/2022 10:17

BLDM= root vegetable

[bldm] 14/1/2022 09:54

Everyone here is waiting for the TU like it's the second coming which will fix everything and make investors whole again. I don't doubt that they've hit their targets. However, MM speaking has historically proven to be disastrous for the share price The 75% fall in share price was not because they missed their targets so let's not make the same mistake again.

I hope he doesn't persist with his hunt for shorters on the call... As a CEO, even if the stock is shorted and he is annoyed, he shouldn't say it, especially on an official company update...but even in a GQ interview. Why does he care about shorts anyway? Unlikely to need to go to the market any time soon with the pile of cash they've got.

On top of hitting their numbers, he better increase the transparency on the company and provide some much needed info on future plans - the split, the rumours of selling divisions, coop with SoftBank, addressing inflation, impact of tightening etc. If he fails to reassure investors by once again being opaque and talking about shorts, price crashes. TU can go great, could also go terribly wrong, don't bet your house on it.

[soleman1] 14/1/2022 08:36

Agreed, on balance I'm neutral the results but bullish the year. Mentioning selling departments I think would be positive as values would be attached but I think this comes next quarter, this should be focused on results and hopefully a ceo.

[merrick1965] 14/1/2022 08:20

What is laughable is the share options which were cancelled were probably based on a higher notional share price than the current price. So the property deal looks worse than ever for THG. So Matthew has share options cancelled, gets a preferential loan (because of his THG position)to buy the properties with a leaseback to pay the loan with THG rental income. He then gets a 50% uplift in moulding holding from 17 to 25+% (other shareholders were diluted and employees bonus was base on a higher share price than he had to achieve for his bonus) . A superb deal for Matthew but as I have posted before very conflicted and self serving

I think Tuesday will be twist and turns

Tuesday I believe trading update will say

Positives

Sales up, ingenuity sales up, integration of acquisitions progressing better than anticipated
margins is complicated, if selling more of in-house mfr products could do well, economies of purchasing power hopefully improved.
I think they need to announce ceo (to appease institutions).

Negatives

How big is loss. Because other divisions are still subsiding ingenuity infrastructure. Because as part of SoftBank loan and option certain targets will have been set

Headwinds statement - Inflationary pressures will be hard to avoid

Then 8.30 am we have the analyst call and hopefully this will go better than last time -

[4vik] 14/1/2022 06:54

31/12/2021 15:33 bldm's post: HNY all. Looking forward to seeing THG approach 300 at some point in 2022.

Do I understand well, you have gone from bullish (300p) to uber bearish (0-79p) in two weeks with NO MATERIAL news released? Did you post that people should not invest on articles? Or your strategy is first invest after research? Looks like you an angry man who screwed up the entry price. GROW UP please!

Also you still have not answered my question.

ATB.

[sankshiela] 14/1/2022 01:52

BLDM= deceitful

[bldm] 14/1/2022 00:00

Work on site at THG’s new 1m sq ft HQ campus at Columbia Threadneedle’s Airport City campus is still due to begin “in the first half of 2022” according to those in the know on the developers’ side. Or so Subplot was told yesterday, meaning no change since October (Subplot, 26 October 2021). However, more modest THG plans for the Hale Country Club hit some winter ice. The proposals submitted to Trafford council in May 2021 were withdrawn just before the Christmas holidays after the environmental health people gave it a big thumbs down.

The setback comes as eyes turn to the complicated sale-and-leaseback arrangements between THG founder Matthew Moulding and the newly-floated THG (arrangements worth about £350m, says The Guardian). For an online business, THG has always seemed super-keen on real estate, some of which appears (to those of us who live outside the beauty bubble) somewhat tangential to the business of packing and posting lotions and potions. The Hale club is a case in point. The THG share price plunged after investors reacted badly to a fundraising last autumn, and has stayed low. Today it is trading 75% down on this time last year. Perhaps investors should start rating THG as a tenant as much as an online retailer? Or perhaps they already are?

[bldm] 13/1/2022 22:53

Every point I've raised is valid and plausible. This is why you're banging on the table, calling names and flipping out. To each their own. I've got quite a bid in THG and I've used the fall to average down to just above 200. If I bought a swan and it's starts quacking, I'm not going to keep calling my duck a swan - it's a duck. At the moment, MM and the share price behave like a duck but with an i. I'd love to be surprised but for every good argument I can make for THG and MM, there are 10 bad arguments. And then there's the dodgy stuff...and him blaming recent events on the mysterious "shorts" - we don't know who they are but they are there and it's their fault. At best this is ignorant. The more experienced and cynical traders will recognise darker motives in this behaviour.

I liked THG because of the almost 20 year history of them growing and delivering, even though right now they are basically a m&a vehicle rather than a company that inovates. The problem today is that companies IPO waaaaay too early before the business is proven and solid and the IPO becomes a way for the founders to get out. It's not the good old days when by the time they IPOed you knew you have a business with earnings. Not revenue - earnings. The IPO was to expand the business nationally or internationally, not for the insiders to get out. Lets see - it can always fall to 0 but from here for it to go down, it would either have to be due to the business model not delivering, economic conditions deteriorating, poor structure after the split or fraud. Quite a few maybes in this equation - hence the price. All of these are big risks. My biggest worry is fraud because then this goes to 0 eventually.

[4vik] 13/1/2022 21:24

Difference is 140p valuation has been reduced to 79p by him. Lol

[4vik] 13/1/2022 21:21

I think bldm, smith, mateljead all the same.
Smith tried to use the same fear tactic just before Powel speach and acting like an insider. Bldm is lying now.
Oh. and all these 3 have zero TA knowledge.

[4vik] 13/1/2022 21:11

bldm, I am waiting for your answer!

[soleman1] 13/1/2022 20:15

He's actually the worst kind of short. I didn't mind Smith I enjoyed the banter. He stated his position and was honest, it's not a crime to short a stock he is entitled to his opinions, he had integrity.This fella is insidious, claiming to be a distressed holder besides themselves spouting doomsday advice with the hope we engage believing his position to be legitimate, I don't like fear tactics some have a fleeting worry when people start talk about bankrupted companies and fraud then sell to their future angst.That being said after what THG shareholders have been subjected to I suspect the survivors are all strong hands now. Bldr: I'll see you next Tuesday

[jimmyd1970] 13/1/2022 20:10

It really isn't. If you model some low double digit revenue growth and infer some reasonable operating leverage against it for the next 3 years, even without the suggestion of ingenuity jumping in the mix, you get to £3. There's no reasonable basis for suggesting a £1bn EV, accepting there's a million ways to skin the cat.

[1pencil] 13/1/2022 19:48

The bit we don't know on shorts is the difference between Crest marked loan data and those visible above the notification threshold.

We know there's around 1% declared on Short tracker v Crest Loan data of December 8.72% (see post 8269).

A few ways to read those numbers, anyone who plays poker will get the inference there.

In terms of getting a pulse for the business ahead of TU next week, obviously we have positive reports via social media feeds (is Alice the new Chair :) but little else.

Does anyone put any store in Google Trends for search terms, appreciate users my have already book marked sites by now so these searches may only represent new customers.

Example below:



I use my own tools to measure sales and trends but these are only useful on larger domains such as Amazon.