The Mission Share Discussion Threads

[qs99] 10/1/2022 15:29

Looking above, 3.2% prospective yield and 1st year pay down of debt used on defcon is pretty attractive IMO in an "opening" economy for this sort of company. SAA moved materially yet this has actually dropped over the year. IMO that makes sense and have stocked up to see if we can get back towards a quid of value....DYOR

[qs99] 10/1/2022 15:17

Looking perky ahead of TU due in Jan I believe?


Good to see OINL increasing its holding!

DYOR

[cliffpeat] 10/1/2022 14:06

Octopus Investments Nominees Limited increased its holding again on Friday (7th) and now up to 10.15%

I also bought some more the same day - remember that "fools seldom differ:)"

DYOR

[cravencottage] 07/1/2022 14:13

UK advertising and marketing specialist The Mission Group (TMG:78p) flagged up the strong sequential quarter-on-quarter recovery in both revenue and profitability in the first half in a pre-close trading update (‘On a recovery mission’, 15 July 2021), so the directors view on the outlook and strategic developments are more relevant at this juncture. Given the seasonal second half weighting, the guidance given supports analysts’ predictions of a six-fold rise in full-year pre-tax profit to £7.1m on £10m higher revenue of £71.1m which underpin earnings per share (EPS) of 6p and a forecast dividend per share of 2.3p.

The directors report a particularly strong performance from agencies that operate in sectors that have been more resilient to the effects of the pandemic, including specialist technology and mobility agency, April Six, which delivered 10 per cent higher revenue in the first half and 25 per cent growth in North America.

Mission is also benefiting from the rebound in sectors that were significantly impacted by the pandemic. Specialist property marketing Agency ThinkBDW delivered 27 per cent higher revenue following a resurgence in activity in the UK new homes market, while brand Agency Bray Leino achieved 42 per cent growth as clients returned to a more business as usual footing. New client wins across the group include Redrow, Cazoo, Mecca, Bottlegreen and Porsche GB. In addition, a backlog of delayed overseas and UK events is boosting activity for several agencies such as Bray Leino, which is supporting the prestigious UK Pavilion at the upcoming Dubai Expo.

House broker Shore Capital highlights several factors that underpin a continuation of these trends, the key one being an improving UK advertising spend back drop (data and analytics company WARC forecast 18 per cent and 8 per cent year-on-year growth in 2021 and 2022). Mission’s strategic focus on delivering effective e-commerce solutions coupled with a focus on its data and analytics capability is another positive for the group as management look to leverage their deep digital skill base across a loyal blue-chip client base.

Importantly, Mission is well funded. Factoring in £6.6m of earn-outs payable in the second half, forecast year-end closing net debt of £9.9m is well within the group’s new £20m bank facility and equates to less than one times forecast adjusted cash profit of £11.7m. Furthermore, free cash flow is expected to treble to £9.8m in 2022 which should slash net debt to £5.1m and enable the dividend to be raised to 2.5p a share, next year’s pay-out being covered more than three times by EPS estimates of 8.6p.

The holding has produced a 51 per cent total return since I initiated coverage (Alpha Research: 'Marketing highly profitable growth', 11 October 2018) and my 100p target could prove conservative given that Mission’s 2022 forward price/earnings (PE) ratio of 9 and enterprise valuation to cash profit multiple of 5.5 times are half that of peers. A prospective dividend yield of 3.2 per cent adds to the attraction. Buy.

[cravencottage] 07/1/2022 13:23

According to S Thomson 11.7 million and 8.6p EPS. 2022 Figures

[cliffpeat] 07/1/2022 10:15

TMG trading update last year was on 20 January 2021.

52 Week share price Range 60.50 - 91.75 per Yahoo
Current share price 63.19 - i.e. about 28p below its peak in last 12 months

In February 2019 pre-pandemic share price was £1.08

Last 2021 year RNS trading update was on 20 October 2021 - "the Group is currently on track to deliver a full year performance in line with the Board's expectations"

Last year website shows an acquisition (Soul) and innovation - The Branding Index - and positive news stories of client acquisition and TV work etc.

Does anyone have metrics for "Board's expectations" of 2021 profit - or is that in "the black box"?

Would anyone be surprised if TMG was again considered "undervalued" when the trading update is announced this month?

Just conjecture and seeking information - as ever DYOR

[cravencottage] 29/12/2021 21:42

Picked up a few of today.

Having re-read ST's Investor's chronicle tip and observing the above clip from

James Clifton the shares should gain traction in the run up to the Trading Statement in January.

Just a hunch

[yupawiese2010] 22/11/2021 18:02

James Clifton CEO talking on Edison TV.

[sphere25] 18/11/2021 12:21

It looks like continued weakness on the back of the news on the 15th June with two experienced director's, not only leaving, but selling their shares at what looks like value levels. Double whammy of increased caution by the market on the back of the news as well as big chunks of shares being sold into the market.

Price moved down to 70p on the back of that news and then ST tipped it for a rally in July. Now that has worn off with continued selling by Robert Day. Robert Day had sold down significantly to 1.27m as per the update in September and David Morgan had sold down to 4.8m as per the update in June.

I don't know if it's just Robert Day selling here (in looking to clear the lot out) or both, but if the price breaks down here, it looks like a gap close to bob around the 60p mark as per the second half of last year.

Watching to see if this is the case and if the shares get placed down there - it could be an opportunity for a trade. Judging by recent comments on trading here and the sector, you wouldn't expect any major deviation from forecasts in the very near term, but clearly a different ball game going into next year with two key proponent's leaving and selling shares.

Moves like that can make people more cautious as to how the risk is assessed.

TMG is too early to take a trading position as yet, but there are a few of these about that have fallen a long way that could provide opportunities. Keeping a watch out there.

All imo
DYOR

[dr biotech] 18/11/2021 12:15

Don’t know, others in the sector have done ok recently. A lot of my small caps have underperformed in the last few weeks.

[qs99] 18/11/2021 11:03

looking pretty weak, any views?

[cliffpeat] 11/11/2021 09:44

@mfhmfh (your post 304) - I had overlooked that Octopus Investments Nominees Limited added yet again (notified 25 Oct 21) and now hold 8.21% of shares.

Major Shareholders % Holding
Octopus Investments Nominees Ltd 8.20%
Herald Investment Trust plc 6.30%
David Morgan 5.30%
BGF Investment Management Ltd 5.20%
Close Asset Management Ltd 5.10%
Objectif Inv. Microcaps FCP 4.60%
Camac Fund, LP 4.60%

TOTAL per TMG website 39.30%

Other directors together 6.6%

[cliffpeat] 10/11/2021 09:18

Martin Sorrell interviewed on radio 4 Today programme this morning about S4 Capital interims to 30 June 2021.

He gave some very positive analysis of the growth of digital advertising and the S4 results summary concludes:

"Strong prospects for second half 2021, tailwinds for 2022 with digital disruption/transformation driving future growth opportunities"

Does this read across to TMG?



Edit: R4 interview at about 1:18 here:

[cliffpeat] 29/10/2021 09:33

Thanks @Tomps2 - useful with the conclusion that TMG is undervalued.

Was a little concerned with "slams" and relieved that it is actually very positive.

[tomps2] 29/10/2021 09:09

David Thornton ‘slams’ MISSION (TMG) at 52m46s in the latest PIWORLD/Stockopedia Stockslam

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast here:

[mfhmfh] 24/9/2021 14:20

Positive to see Octopus Investments move up to 7.66% holding. IMHO.

[cliffpeat] 24/9/2021 08:47

RNS today:

Nearly 2% added through Octopus Investments Nominees Limited (1.8m shares)

Presumably part of retiring deputy chairman Robert Day's sale of approx. 2.8m shares at 73p per share. RD continues to hold approx 1.3m shares

This, of course coincides with the confirmed interim results issued on 22 Sep.

Earlier this year the share price was nearly 90p and with the positive trading outlook one wonders why RD has chosen now to sell. Could it be because of David Morgan's retirement as chair and less confidence in new regime? Or "institutional interest" and therefore opportunity?

Would appreciate any views from those closer to TMG and directors.

I'm currently vacillating between buy, sell or hold :(

[cliffpeat] 22/9/2021 09:07

Reassuring RNS interim results.

Commenting on the results, David Morgan, Chairman of The MISSION Group plc, said: "For me stepping down is far from manumission. It's been a great journey and I truly believe that the best is still to come."

Teaching us yet another new word as a memorable pun. He has been a successful leader.

Holding.

[devilsprofessor] 22/9/2021 08:56

Very reassuring results this morning. Quirky confident comments from the top supporter but surely steady progression.H2 should bring more reassurance that this continues to be a growing, strong company.Could this be one in line for a take over?DYOR.

[tole] 19/9/2021 15:59

https://masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/small-cap-round-up-featuring-kape-technologies-sthree-and-mp-evans/The Mission Group (LON:TMG) – this company has higher hopesOn Wednesday of next week (22) this agency group will be declaring its interim results to end June.It is now apparent that trading in the first half of 2021 was ahead of expectations. Despite severe lockdown restrictions in its trading markets, the group continued to see a marked recovery in both revenue and profitability.Revenues for the period to end June of £31.6m (£ 29.1m) with an operating profit of £2.0m (£1.8m loss). Expect a second half weighting in profitability to be on track with full year expectations.Estimates are for £71.1m (£61.5m) sales, adjusted pre-tax profits up from £1.2m to £7.1m and earnings up from 1.2p to 6p per share, amply covering a 2.3p (nil) dividend.The group's brokers Shore Capital have a value estimate on the shares of 157p.In May this year the group's shares were up to 91.75p but they have since eased back to 79p, perhaps a bullish Interim Statement will help to create some much-needed upward impetus.A firm hold.

[qs99] 07/9/2021 09:34

Glad I topped up this morning!

[qs99] 07/9/2021 08:58

Results out 22nd Sept I believe....will be interesting to note any moves ahead of that IMO....DYOR

[qs99] 29/7/2021 11:46

Great to have you on board as well👍

[devilsprofessor] 26/7/2021 14:21

AgreedThis has been long awaited to reach the point it should have been at some months prior.The recent updates were exactly what I was expecting when I bought in Feb 2020 and held throughout the very low lows!Excellent company IMO, working away in the background.I am also looking at 100p before the year is out.