The Mission Share Discussion Threads

[sphere25] 22/1/2021 16:52

We can see the expected earnings progression here:



Even if it was pushed back a couple of quarters, the recovery in eps looks to hit about that 9p mark. You could discount that more if you wanted. I don't remember TMG commanding an enormous multiple, usually around that 10x mark so a conservative 90p target. Price was trading on a similar forward multiple at above 100p pre-covid as far as I can remember.

The market is similar elsewhere with many ratings looking forward to 2023 an/or factoring in further earnings upgrades. It is as per most out there, whether we perceive the earnings recovery to happen. If not, is there enough doubt to not even warrant a buy at these levels, which are clearly significantly off the pre-covid highs?

That's the call. Bulls v Bears. It is what makes a market. I think this has a decent recovery chance, but naturally there is risk involved and could be wrong. As well as things have gone out there for everybody, we're all prone to getting walloped now and again.

So no blinkers here, not piling in - measured risk.

Let's see how the updates progress.

All imo
DYOR

[devilsprofessor] 22/1/2021 07:28

Where do you see this?

[sphere25] 21/1/2021 16:35

"...return to a pre-pandemic run rate by Q3 2021, leading to a strong start to 2022".

The market isn't interested in the next reporting period or all these e.g. retailers and airlines with shut downs would be getting clobbered now. It is looking way out to at least 2022 imo, so personally speaking, it's a case of trying to identify the ones where the rating hasn't captured the level of fundamental trading in 2022 and 2023 judging by some of the ratings out there (OTB was a recent example I posted on when trying to establish how far the market is looking forward) - 2020 was a free pass and alot of 2021 is a free pass according to how these prices are moving.

All imo
DYOR

[scubadiverr] 21/1/2021 16:18

If you reread yesterday's bullish update you'll see a hidden profit warning for the next reporting period.

[sphere25] 21/1/2021 16:00

Stream of buys here. Wanted this one to come back as I'd missed it but had to follow those buys in for a first nibble. A recovery contender based on the bullish statement so expecting a continuation of that trading momentum.

Looks a buy the dips play when they come.

All imo
DYOR

[davebowler] 20/1/2021 09:33

20 January 2021

THE MISSION GROUP plc

("MISSION", "the Group")

TRADING UPDATE AND NOTICE OF RESULTS

The MISSION Group plc (AIM: TMG), the alternative group for ambitious brands , today issues a trading update for the year ended 31 December 2020.

Trading update

2020 was clearly a year like no other with the UK under some form of restrictions for over three quarters of the year, including an unplanned second National Lockdown in November. Despite this challenging backdrop the strong recovery in trading momentum experienced in early H2 has continued throughout the second half of the year, reversing the first half losses felt at the economic height of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, the Group now expects full year headline PBT performance to be over GBP1m, comfortably ahead of market expectations.

The decisive and effective measures implemented from the outset of the pandemic, underpinned by our agile and empowered organisational structure, has enabled this result. Our phased COVID-19 management strategy of: survive, strive, thrive has also given us a strong platform for 2021 and beyond. Mindful of the ongoing restrictions resulting from the pandemic and our traditional second half trading bias, we again predict H2 2021 to out-perform H1 with a return to a pre-pandemic run rate by Q3 2021, leading to a strong start to 2022.

Strong cash management over the course of the year resulted in a reduction in year-end net bank debt to GBP1.3m (2019: GBP4.9m), representing a significant improvement on market expectations. This will leave us well placed to capitalise on the undoubted opportunities that 2021 will bring.

Reflecting on this strengthened position, the Board now proposes to reinstate the deferred 2019 final dividend of 1.53 pence per share. This dividend was committed to in our 2019 Annual Report (the period before COVID-19) and will be payable on 1 March 2021, to those shareholders on the share register as at close of business on 12 February 2021. We remain committed to our previously stated long term progressive dividend policy and will continue to monitor the situation as this year progresses in line with the performance of the Group.

Notice of results

The Group expects to announce its final results on 14 April 2021.

Commenting, James Clifton, Group Chief Executive of The MISSION Group plc, said:

"In a year that has brought huge challenges, our entrepreneurial culture has seen MISSION create new opportunities across the Group, ensuring we have been at the forefront of market recovery to deliver this strong performance. Increased collaboration across our Agencies has been underpinned by new acquisitions and the continued development of the MISSION Advantage, ensuring we are better positioned to make further progress against our strategic priorities in both 2021 and beyond. This is of course on top of all the hard work and dedication of all our employees in 2020 that gives us a new, strong foundation for growth."

ENDS

CONTACT


THE MISSION GROUP plc Tel: [phone]
James Clifton, Group Chief Executive
Peter Fitzwilliam, Chief Financial
Officer
SHORE CAPITAL (Nomad and Broker) Tel: [phone]
Mark Percy / James Thomas / Sarah
Mather
HOUSTON (Financial PR and Investor Tel: [phone]
Relations)
Kate Hoare / Laura Stewart

NOTES TO EDITORS

MISSION is a collective of Creative and MarTech Agencies led by entrepreneurs who encourage an independent spirit. Employing over 1,000 people across 31 locations and 3 continents, the Group successfully combines its diverse expertise to bring about commercially effective solutions for some of the world's biggest Clients.

www.themission.co.uk

This information is provided by RNS, the news service of the London Stock Exchange. RNS is approved by the Financial Conduct Authority to act as a Primary Information Provider in the United Kingdom. Terms and conditions relating to the use and distribution of this information may apply. For further information, please contact [e-mail] or visit www.rns.com.

RNS may use your IP address to confirm compliance with the terms and conditions, to analyse how you engage with the information contained in this communication, and to share such analysis on an anonymised basis with others as part of our commercial services. For further information about how RNS and the London Stock Exchange use the personal data you provide us, please see our Privacy Policy.

[devilsprofessor] 20/1/2021 07:43

Excellent update. This company has clearly worked hard and to bring back a dividend whe larger company's Cant is excellent!

[18bt] 20/1/2021 07:27

Good update - the divi is back on

[devilsprofessor] 19/1/2021 15:00

Seems there's been a bit of an increase of late. We had a trading update sound this time last year so I've emailed TMG to see if there is something in the offing

[ali47fish] 17/12/2020 14:26

is this one on the ascendant for a change or what?

[davebowler] 11/12/2020 16:40

Edison;
With an improving outlook for advertising spend, The MISSION should see a good bounce in revenues in FY21. Initiatives such as MISSION Made, launched in October, should help drive efficiency, with increasing use of shared central resources and a careful eye on costs also set to lead a rebound in margin. The financial outcome will partially be determined by revenue mix, with the group exposed to high-performing segments, such as tech and pharma, as well as areas with greater COVID-19 related issues, such as property and events. There are no changes to our forecasts at this stage. The group’s valuation remains well below that of peers.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

77.6

9.2

8.5

2.1

7.2

3.4

12/19

81.0

10.2

9.0

0.8

6.8

1.3

12/20e

62.7

0.5

0.7

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/21e

76.1

9.0

7.7

1.8

7.9

3.0

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Mix gives resilience

Group agencies have continued to win business and run notable campaigns through H220. Since September’s interims, Story UK has worked on campaigns for NHS Scotland and NHS NorthEast, AprilSix has won new business from IQGeo to promote their geospatial data capabilities, and krow has run high-profile campaigns for UNISON and for DFS. Understandably, the events segment remains disrupted, although even here, Bray Leino Events has been working on the UK pavilion for Expo 2020 Dubai, which was pushed out to October 2021. We would expect there to have been some improvement in trading conditions in the mobility vertical, but for the property segment to have stayed subdued, given the limited stock availability.

Market outlook improving but timing uncertain

The consensus is for a good rebound in UK advertising spend in FY21, with the Advertising Association/WARC predicting a rise of 16.6%, assuming that the vaccine roll-out proceeds as planned and a degree of normality is established. This is post a 15.6% fall in spend in the current year, meaning that 2019 levels of spend would not be reached before 2022. However, there are large variations in these growth rates by sector, with out-of-home and cinema showing the strongest forecast rebound. Q121 year-on-year growth will be more difficult, given the stronger comparatives, with recovery much more marked in Q221. We would expect that there would be similar disparity in rates of growth between sector verticals, so the mix will be a crucial factor in MISSION’s financial outcome.

Valuation: Discount to peers persists

As is the case for MISSION, forecasts for peers remain highly subjective to assumptions on the speed and scale of the recovery, so we have looked at an average over FY19, FY20e and FY21e. MISSION’s shares trade at a discount to peers on EV/EBIT (8.1x2021) and P/E on this basis. Parity indicates a share price of 76.9p (from 78.25p in September, reflecting changes in share prices), 26% above the current level.

[tole] 23/11/2020 16:13

108k at 61p

[bbluesky] 13/11/2020 11:20

WPP worlds largest ad agency is up. TMG is lagging and it looks like we are at the bottom of a business cycle, in which case there is 2 years+ upside. It's a fast changing landscape out there to exploit. Plus of course the bonus of Pathfindr.

[devilsprofessor] 11/11/2020 18:27

Hopefully the start of something good - this share deserves a bit of a lift. It's not recovered as it should since the COVID struck which doesn't seem fair to the company IMO given it's current status.

[ali47fish] 11/11/2020 17:52

Close Asset Management Limited invests 5pc/ noprevious investment

[davebowler] 28/9/2020 09:35

This marketing services group has had a rough time during the lockdown, as shown by its interims to end June.

They showed a revenue fall from £39.2m to £29.1m and a severe swing from £2.4m adjusted pre-tax profits to a loss of £2.3m, with earnings easing back from 3.2p to a loss of 1.92p per share.

But not all is lost – it seems that the second half year has started well, with chairman David Morgan stating that measures have been put in place to ensure that the group can emerge from the pandemic as an even stronger business.

Research house Edison is effectively writing off this trading year, but it is estimating £76.1m of revenues next year, £9m of profits and 7.7p of earnings together with a 1.8p per share dividend.

The shares close the week at just 59.5p – disappointing 2020 but hopeful for 2021?

[qs99] 25/9/2020 17:14

in fact Edison IMO are pointing to exactly that having just looked, a v. small FY profit....sorry but risks are not on the upside here for quite a while IMO!

[qs99] 25/9/2020 17:13

evening noble3r and totally agree on the forward looking side of things. But financials just looked awful. Likewise market isn't great, they have a long way to go H2 but didn't say much other than would "make a profit" for full year so minimum £2m H2 profit vs £7m last year.

I'm not sure 2021 will be that good tbh, but am not invested here. GLA and good weekends

[noble3r] 24/9/2020 15:57

QS99 - of course all the financial indicators point towards the current share price being high when taken against H120 and FY20e but the market is forward looking (as you know). Forecasts remain that FY21e will return to FY19 of circa 9million PBT. The share price wont be 60p if that was the case - like it was in 2019 for sometime. The interim results are best viewed from the MISSION website's presentation where more detail is given. I remain optimistic of growth and new client wins for H220 and onwards. I am disappointed that the interims didn't contain more detail on the future order book for Pathfindr but note the recent employment of a commercial manager for the business.

[bbluesky] 24/9/2020 07:06

A comment on Pathfindr. Firstly, as the vlogger says, is it worth being sued for not having it? I see it as part of new PPE and clearly a lot of others do to, as 200 unique buyers have stepped up so far.Tip of he iceberg? As I recall, they started delivering in mid-June, so 12 weeks later they have sold 15,000@ c. £50 a unit = £750,000.I would think the margin is pretty good.More, to the point is that hat is over 1000 a week (12 weeks selling, which is of course £50,000 a week or if on constant track £2.6m a year.)

There is a very good article on the BBC website by Nick Triggle "Covid:Is it time we learned to live with the virus?" The idea that it is going to be eliminated (current Government policy) is unrealistic. A good read and if Pahfindr starts to tke off in the US that would be explosive.

[markie7] 23/9/2020 14:30

agree, which is why I mentioned income, which is different. Strictly - "operating income"

[dr biotech] 23/9/2020 14:18

Turnover is largely a measure of pass through costs - so if their clients want to run a TV ad these will be much higher etc. Its not a reliable measure of how well the company is doing.

[qs99] 23/9/2020 08:29

spot on markie7.....this in many ways should be half the current market cap on loss making declining revenues in a poo market place.....DYOR enough from me here

[markie7] 23/9/2020 08:27

however you dress it up, this looks awful. How they can describe it as "robust" is beyond me. Huge decline in income over the last six months, where the peer group simply hasn't experienced that to that extent. Delayed payments to vendors of businesses won't have gone down well either. Definitely avoid.