Tekmar Share Discussion Threads

[guyswonga] 11/11/2020 16:06

49/50p tight spread

[guyswonga] 11/11/2020 14:18

starting to move up now, not many under 50p

[jonwig] 10/11/2020 07:58

Schroders is launching its British Opps Trust today. Pretty good timing. I wager TGP will be included, and they've already bought their stake.

[rambutan2] 05/11/2020 22:05

By chance, I watched a presentation by Downing today (at a Kepler event) and without naming TGP as the company, it was talked about a little as a recent purchase. The manager said they'd done extensive due diligence before buying in, including asking industry players and experts their opinion of TGP and its future prospects. The view given back was that the product was still a leader and that in general the company was not a basket case and problems were fixable. And whatever, the mkt was big and growing.

And I see that Downing were adding yesterday.

[jonwig] 05/11/2020 14:49

igoe #636 - the Dems have not captured spending (Congrtess). As AEP writes (DT):

Joe Biden will not be able to push [his] vaulting plans through Congress even if he does make it into the White House. The green deal is largely still-born. His front-loaded $1.7 trillion Gosplan for 500 million solar panels, 60,000 wind turbines, and the like, will be torn to pieces by the Senate.
Private money is, of course, flowing into renewables in US and elsewhere, but not an upfont $1.7m.

[jonwig] 04/11/2020 20:14

Schroders adds, now 17.2%. Header is up-to-date.

[igoe104] 04/11/2020 14:57

Looking like a Biden victory now. Should be good news for the renewable sector. Lots of offshore wind farms in the planning in the US....

[imperial3] 04/11/2020 13:00

EXPN has been doing nicely for very many years for me.

[igoe104] 04/11/2020 12:50

Downing do hold one of my biggest holdings, volex they are continually going up at the moment.

[jonwig] 04/11/2020 12:29

Downing Strategic Microcap Trust has picked up 3.9%.

Their strategy is to help turn around undervalued, troubled businesses (their expertise is in VCTs) but they have made some pretty poor picks. With exceptions, we hope!

[igoe104] 03/11/2020 21:43

Chris mills has a habit of accumulating shares and buying companies on the cheap... At least he via his fund probably cleared Blackrocks overhang...

[rambutan2] 03/11/2020 21:23

And welcome Mr Mills!

[soulcold] 03/11/2020 16:00

@thomshrike #616 Yes my previous comment applies to fixed wind, floating wind and Oil & Gas projects.

[imperial3] 03/11/2020 13:01

According to the latest RNS Blackrock Inc. has reduced its stake from 12.2% to below 5%.From that I deduce that they were the persistent big seller.Hopefully the share price will now recover.

[varies] 02/11/2020 20:01

DangerSimpson2
Thank you very much for your helpful answer to my question

[sebass] 02/11/2020 11:06

Spot on Dangersimpson the only thing I would add is whether they offer any value to an outside buyer.

Do they have a competetive advantage?
Can they be integrated into a larger player?

Is £22m market cap a reflection of all the investments they have made since IPO. If one could speak to their customers that would be the best way to find out if there is value in the company

Definitely more of a punt than an investment

[dangersimpson2] 02/11/2020 10:54

It is not as simple as customers paying their bills since a large part of receivables is unbilled. I.e. work that Tekmar has said it has done on behalf of clients but for which clients have not been invoiced yet. Clients won't pay until 90 days after they are invoiced, of course. As of 31st March, these amounts were:

Tekmar Energy: £9.04m
Subsea: £2.89m
Pipeshield: £3.83m

These are large as a proportion of 2020 revenue:

Tekmar Energy: 33%
Subsea: 33%
Pipeshield: 49% (estimated by annualising revenue for the 5 months under Tekmar ownership)

Whereas there is nothing inherently wrong with this, the large proportion of unbilled receivables means that both revenue and receivables is highly sensitive to the assumptions made in booking these revenues. This increases the risk.

The hope is that these projects have been completed successfully, customers accept the invoices and pay in a timely manner. However, we won't really have any idea if that is the case until the results in early December - and even then we may not get the split into billed & unbilled receivables.

This, combined with the Annual Report in August suggesting that they may be a bit tight for cash if these projects are not billed and paid on time means this is very high risk at the moment - and it wasn't helped by not mentioning cash balances or net debt in last week's trading statement.

Fortune often favours the brave with these things, especially given that one or more institutions seem to be willing to sell at any price. However, without seeing the next set of accounts it is almost impossible to tell if this decline is an overreaction worth buying or a company in dire need of additional capital. As such it surely has to be viewed as a punt at the moment rather than an investment?

[varies] 02/11/2020 10:02

1tommyt
Thank you for getting all that off your chest for our benefit as well as yours.
You are obviously a very disciplined investor with so few holdings and, therefore, give closer attention to those you hold than those of us with more. Many of mine are old dogs bought at much higher prices long ago !
Am I being naïve in thinking that the payment by TGP's customers of their outstanding bills would result in a respectable cash balance ?

[1tommyt] 01/11/2020 20:21

So, for what it is worth, I have been racking my brain and going back over this one over the weekend. I don't hold many stocks, and what I do I tend to go long (3-5 years) and do lots of homework (see point later*) Tekmar and TGP.L to me remains an undervalued play within offshore renewables (high long term growth market) but not for everyone, and possibly as stated not best suited to the AIM market. I agree with @ varies and others who commented before, there is over 10m positive cash within the group today that is low risk from debtors and other liquid assets within the balance sheet, spoke with friends (who work in PE) and they agree this is highly likely takeover target at sub 40m cap. The current overreaction to the recent announcement is the classic oversupply under demand against an un-liquid stock, more than 20m of shares traded or 2.5x previous highest volume-driven mainly by single institutional investors (Originally more than 80% with ten holders) I had spoken with management and James in the past. He was very open about the competition (Page 36 risks section 5 competition in the annual, report) also mention in multiple management presentations (you can see videos online). They also continually highlighted the need to diversify, integrate the businesses and change current year-end to offset from peak demand. Other investors have confirmed that listing was an exit for the PE (who came out in full) James made most of his money back with PE deal and held little once floated, Ally (New CEO and former Chairman) had more PLC background and was always intending on running as a corporate role longer-term (some larger shareholder also confirmed this). James and Ally built this business that has always grown, always maintain a profit but was largely overexposed to one brand solution in a particular market, obviously this needed to change as a public company. So, for me, the real question is, why did the New CEO and long-standing former chairman make these remarks that were already widely understood and reported by the businesses? I think they needed to buy time, and the new CEO thought he could put space between him and former, before revealing new plans. This was a BIG mistake and has possible cost him the share base... that said it still makes for a great opportunity. *I topped up TGP at 40p and now it represents around 10% of my portfolio, I only keep a few listed stocks (i am mainly into VCT's and direct EIC) my top active personal holdings are currently TGP ORSTED SIFG VWS SUBCY. I intend to put a much larger play on TGP if price stays below 45p tomorrow. My target price to sell is now 95p or around 10x 3-year average EBITDA (very low target) then I will drop them back into a circa 10% holding. Hope that help. I found it useful in sharing my view.

[mwainw1973] 01/11/2020 12:38

Those who know, know that's a big ask.

[imperial3] 31/10/2020 21:20

Back to TGP.What an enormous let down this share has been since flotation.Hopes,aspirations and potential opportunities were high then,not least the growing market.

I wonder whether there is any salvation left after this highly disappointing news release.

[imperial3] 31/10/2020 21:20

Back to TGP.What an enormous let down this share has been since flotation.Hopes,aspirations and potential opportunities were high then,not least the growing market.

I wonder whether there is any salvation left after this highly disappointing news release.

[varies] 31/10/2020 20:45

Have I missed some flaw in the balance sheet ?
Trade debtors and creditors are the largest items in current assets and liabilities and, if my recollection is correct, trade debtors at 31 March 2020 exceeded trade creditors by about £10 million.
As and when customers pay their bills, the cash position should improve considerably and I would expect most of these customers be be solid and reliable in settling their bills. The amounts overdue were modest.
TGP carries about £26 million of Goodwill but, of course, any provisions against this would not affect the cash.