Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[dr_smith] 17/1/2020 10:38

Cheers gbh2. I try not think about my shelf life, but 25 years hopefully for me too.
I am a whizz at spreadsheets and poor memory, so have my data sources dynamically linked in, along with salient notes on outlook, to make quick decisions.
Good luck to you too... though for each of us it isn't so much luck but probability. :-)

[gbh2] 17/1/2020 09:53

Dave, As I've just commented on the Lloyds thread imo this Game is VERY much age related, at best I have 25 years left, whilst I'd not be happy to lose the whole of my investments, it would not alter my standard of living should it happen.

I tend to buy & sell in £5k to £10k lots, simplifies the mental arithmetic allowing me to make quick decisions, the 0.5% upon purchase is unavoidable but the £5/6 trade fee I spend with it makes it more palatable :)

But whatever works for you is best for you, good luck.

[dr_smith] 17/1/2020 09:35

gbh2.
I think I share same recognition of market but have different execution.
I don't usually sell during expected flat periods as..just maybe.. that tax rule change or whatever can bring sudden lift to HB's that would be missed. Also cost of stamp duty to exit re-enter.
That is only half the transaction though, as other half is alternative investment plan where better gains are perhaps probable, or atleast justify the risk
My horizon is FTSE 350 and opportunities thin on ground last couple of years, but looking again now.

Dave

[gbh2] 17/1/2020 08:54

The "problem" with TW is the lack of a mid term chance of Capital gain, invested cash is virtually at a stand still between Dividend dates.

Though is of little interest to long term investors imo it's the reason many create the movement by selling off between divi dates.

I simply try and follow the tend, because making money with money is my retirement pastime.

[1carus] 16/1/2020 19:10

Inaminute... the additional costs of stamp duty or whateverbthey call it these days, makes it difficult to do properties. Maybe if you buy land. But even then it's not straight forward. And doesnt have the benefits that you mention.

[inaminute] 16/1/2020 17:55

Those were my thoughts, plus you can get out of TW quicker (or take out part) if you do foresee a major downturn in the property market

[1carus] 16/1/2020 15:53

Jug... don't disagree... but they have changed their model to be more flexible in the future. I keep thinking about going back into property but what's the point when you can just by Tw shares 2ith a thumping annual return.

[jugears] 16/1/2020 13:40

The Billion pounds paid for Taylor Woodrow caused the liquidity problems.

[1carus] 16/1/2020 13:06

Jug ... I meant historically in 2008. Carrying to many direct employees causing a liquidity issue in the downturn.

[pawsche] 16/1/2020 10:50

Re the happy talk about "the good old days" when you could pick up TW for 37p...

ISTR in the even more distant past, not long after the Taylor Woodrow / Wimpey merger (or take-over, whichever it was) which didn't seem to go too well, the share price dropped as low as 4p...! I wish I'd bought some, but at the time bankruptcy seemed strongly on the cards. Ah well, nothing like 20/20 hindsight!

[arja] 16/1/2020 08:38

TW is only building stock in negative territory but hoping it will perform later with US futures moving ahead !

[gbh2] 16/1/2020 08:05

I assume the reference is to the time TW had to issue millions of 25p shares, a practise I hope never to see again.

[jugears] 16/1/2020 07:44

Why have they been caught with there pants down ?

[1carus] 15/1/2020 20:35

Tw made a statement 5 years ago or more that the business model was to return money to it's shareholders. The board made no bones about it. Also set out to position themselves to be able to do this whilst weathering at least a two year down turn. This company got caught with its pants down, the board have been clear thst they will not let that happen again.

[phillis] 15/1/2020 19:55

Special divs are merely a return of excess capital that is not needed to support the company’s business plans
This will end

[dr_smith] 15/1/2020 15:56

gbh2. Cheers. I guessed I'd missed something between the lines. ;-)

[gbh2] 15/1/2020 14:23

Dave, my point was none had been mentioned to date, as Disney points out, the ones we've had were part of a 3 year plan.
I'm not expecting one, which is why I mentioned it, (mainly for the newbie post 24425) however I will be here for any Future ones should they be offered.

As I originally wrote, I suspect/hope we'll get an update in the next set of results.

[dr_smith] 15/1/2020 13:56

edit (typed before seeing DD response.)

gbh2.
Don't wish to be provocative but have to ask, why would you expect a special div beyond 2020. By their nature special divs are one-offs and in case of builders have been over several years to manage the shift in business model in a manageable way.

Having said that brexit/election probably means they have been unsure of forward plans as to how much cash is needed in business for near future.

From my notes I see 27/2/19 FY results said:
"As previously announced, we will pay a total dividend in 2019 of c.£600 million, subject to shareholder approvals to be sought at the Annual General Meeting (AGM) on 25 April 2019, and confirm our intention to make further material cash returns in 2020 and beyond."

So..."AND BEYOND" is nub of your question.

..so intent is there, presumably as before, HB's giving back spare cash instead of expanding (boom & bust), but scale is hard to pre-detrmine with so many variables to-date.
Maybe you will have the answer at this years FY report, due 26/2/20. :-)

Dave

[disneydonald] 15/1/2020 13:53

GBH, Wimps will confirm, or otherwise whether they intend to pay a special dividend for 2021, when they announce 2020 interims. 2020 is the third year of their usual three year strategic cycle, and the Capital Markets Day in May 2021 they will reconfirm, or not any plans re special dividend for the next three year cycle 2022-2024

[gbh2] 15/1/2020 12:47

"consistently high special dividend "

Note there's been no mention to date about a Special dividend being paid beyond 2020, however I'm hoping for an update on the Special dividend going forward, with next set of results.

[1carus] 15/1/2020 11:47

M4rtinu... good call on 210. Will it hold though?

[m4rtinu] 15/1/2020 08:32

PSN not good. Might get some switching to TW?

[elpirata] 14/1/2020 20:15

market may be focussed on Persimmon (PSN) trading statement tomorrow, PSN have already effectively underwritten 2020 divis at £2.35, currently trading at £28 so yielding 8.4%

[glenowen] 14/1/2020 19:47

If the “quick buck” merchants sell tomorrow and drive down the share price, I will be waiting to buy some. The potential rewards from dividends looks compelling here.Back of the envelope calculations:

Declared intention today to pay £610m dividends in 2020
Total shares in issue - 3.280bn
Prospective dividend per share - 18.6p
Yield on today’s price of 210p - 8.86%

I am presently receiving a princely 1.5% on cash held in my ISA. Having checked the recent record of TW, they have paid a consistently high special dividend in recent years. Okay, the dividend cover is not great, but the past record is strong and the outlook for the company is now better, post-Brexit debates, compared to 6 or 12 months ago.

Aside from the general investment stock market risk of losing capital and the unloved sector, the downside risk looks pretty limited here. The only conclusion I can reach is that this is a bit of a “no brainier”, compared to keeping my savings safe in my ISA.

I’ve never bought TW before, but I will definitely be acquiring a chunk tomorrow.

[martyn9] 14/1/2020 16:29

Good volume and jump in the share price but agree with jug no doubt the quick buck merchants will sell soon.