Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 13/8/2019 13:21

WFL1970- Apart from the price being manipulated down nothing has changed at Tw & people there I have spoken to are not expecting it to either in the forseeable future.
Obviously no loss if you don't sell & they will go back up again enjoy the ride, the lower they are the more shares I get as dividends & IMHO anything under £2 is a bargain. Once Brexit out of the way in a couple of years time these will start to fly again & £1.45 will be a distant past memory.Remember that old saying go away in may & come back on St Ledgers day ?, shares always fall in the summer months & have for as long as I can Remember & My dad before me, I never take any notice of price falls in the summer, It helps to have a lot off balls to invest & lots of patience.

[wfl1970] 13/8/2019 13:07

Alot has changed here...

£1.90+ in April to £1.45+ now.

Which equates to about 25% loss in capital - less factoring in the dividends of course. It's still significant which ever way you look at it.

[jugears] 13/8/2019 11:31

no reason for it, nothing has changed at Tw but if they drop to £1.30 again I am happy to buy another 50K.

[omg48] 13/8/2019 08:42

TW leading the building sector down again :-(

[sikhthetech] 12/8/2019 20:17

When house prices fall and homeowners can't afford to pay the additional H2B loan, who will end up with the bad Help2Buy loans bank?... the huge £20bln worth...The government...

Northern Rock again...

Question is at what point are the risks already factored into the sp?

[dr_smith] 12/8/2019 14:07

Jugears.
>The big barrier is that Lenders tend to only like bricks & mortar!
That's something I never thought of, and me a Banker for my first carear, though an example of something that could be solved by gov if that really was the essence of the problem (in same way gov used to g'tee payment for UK exporters, to make risk same as trading at home).

For factory (hi-tec/luxury) prefabs I fear economies of scale is an obstacle.
Cars and phones built my machines and robots are sold in multimillions world-wide, to make investment worthwhile, and have a short life span but would say 100,000-200,000 units p.a. (and very long life-span) reward that up-front cost and risk?
If one prefab factory sold to other countries, its price advantage may be eaten up by cost of transporting both bulk and weight.
I guess that's why it hasn't happened in volume yet.

Dave

[jugears] 12/8/2019 12:48

DR-Smith- Perhaps if the government aloud houses to be built where they would not normally be built on the condition that the land is only sold at say half price ( this would be the condition of sale & for approving planning )then more affordable houses could be built & just for first time buyers say 2-3 bedroom houses only, This would also be good as most buyers would be younger families that would probably not feel so isolated as they would on mixed housing developments & this is a common issue, In The eighties I bought a new house on a new estate, all my neighbours were roughly the same age & had young kids, After a years I new everyone up & down the road on both sides, I now live on a main road & have lived in my present house 10 years & only know my neighbours either side of my house. I do agree More needs to be done to produce more off site prefab houses & this is something we are working on with one of my customers, The big barrier is that Lenders tend to only like bricks & mortar!

[dr_smith] 12/8/2019 12:23

I have said before..possibly on this thread, Help 2 buy doesn't help the buyer.
Demand (increasing population) is increasing at a higher rate than new homes being built, aside from backlog from many many years of under-supply.
With or without H2B it is the same volume of supply and economics means that limited supply goes to the highest payers, be they paying from bank of mum and Dad, overseas residents or hard workers aided by whatever scheme.
The "price" for new homes is consequently increased by H2B, pushing up volume of money available from buyer market.

Demand for homes (not necesssarilly new) won't diminish whilst number being built is lower than population (& backlog), though affordability comes in to it, but only to a degree.

Everyone has to live somewhere, be it L/H or F/H, though number of occupants per home could increase - and I believe has (e.g. kids leaving home at later age).

Most folks prefer private space, even if smaller, rather than sharing larger home.

The only way forward is for more homes to be built at lower cost and on smaller footprint (as has happened to-date in past decades), and I am surprised we don't already have hi-tec luxury prefabs, factory prepared by robots.

I believe a chap called Henry did similar to enable the masses to get around. ;-)
IMO. :-)
Dave

[ftir10] 12/8/2019 11:49

Jug,

Thanks for confirming you supply wood based products.

[jugears] 12/8/2019 11:35

ftir10- Wood based products.

[ftir10] 12/8/2019 11:26

WFL,

Yes, and all it's achieved is to push house prices up by an additional 20%

It's another "house of cards" waiting to collapse!

No one has really gained, apart from the House Builders with their inflated prices

[wfl1970] 12/8/2019 11:24

I think for some people, their problems may begin once the 5 year interest free loan period is up...
"You will have to start paying interest on the equity loan once you've had it for five years. ... You DON'T pay interest for the first five years. From year six interest kicks in at 1.75%. The rate increases every year after that at the RPI (Retail Prices Index) measure of inflation, plus 1% until the loan is paid off."

[ftir10] 12/8/2019 11:21

Jug,

What do you supply to the house builders ????

[jugears] 12/8/2019 11:15

Not everyone needs help to buy & a lot of people using it didn't need to.Houses sold before with out help to buy I am sure they will continue but as I have said before I think help to buy will be here another 5 years yet just like low interest rates.My order book for the housing industry is full beyond capacity for the next six months when & If that changes I will worry.Today I am more interested in my nice gain on my Tullow oil shares.

[sikhthetech] 12/8/2019 10:26

When Help2Buy/leasehold finishes and/or interest rates start to rise then what will underpin the new demand for new homes?



From Belway update:

"The company said underlying demand for new homes remains "strong", underpinned by the Help to Buy scheme and low interest rates."

[ftir10] 12/8/2019 09:57

Markets starting to worry about UK inflation risks!

[turvart] 11/8/2019 16:18

Some good posts thanks,

The reason I ask about interest rates is the fact I’ve switched a percentage of my pension into inflation linked bonds and I think the interest rate will be cut and I don’t think it will make much difference to forex. When rates are cut bond funds go up and that’s what I’m hoping for.

[disneydonald] 11/8/2019 14:04

if we leave without a deal then the pound will collapse further, it will be difficult for the BoE to then lower rates adding fuel to the fire ... BoE might have to intervene to defend the pound either by throwing good money after bad like when we crashed out of the ERM, or raise rates, or both

[gbh2] 11/8/2019 13:23

Zero Hour contract are directly linked to Greed at the Top!

imo Few are going to start spending like we could in earlier decades, until there's a National reintroduction of jobs in which people can get decent pay, training and a reasonably reliable financial future they can for.

[turvart] 11/8/2019 13:04

So going back to interest rates, if you think there is going to be a recession then interest rates should get cut?

[jugears] 11/8/2019 10:37

Wfl1970, negative GDP caused by stock piling for Brexit in the first 3 months of course its was down.As for recession as far as I am concerned we have been in one for the last 3/4 years particularly the construction industry.