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[m4rtinu] 09/8/2019 09:21

The interest rate debate is, well, interesting. Whether they go up or down after Brexit will depend on how much the pound is hit. A small hit and they could go down to support the economy; a big hit and they could easily go the other way, and fast.

The situation would be made worse if currency investors (avaricious gamblers) start a panic. Could be like the 80s. It is possible both Tories and Labour might need to resort to capital controls to stop a lot of money leaving UK too rapidly.

In that scenario I would imagine house prices would tank.

[jugears] 09/8/2019 09:10

Icarus- The days of higher interest rates are long gone 2-2.5% will be the norm in future, America has tried to put up rates & that hasn't lasted long.I'm afraid the governments of the world are going to need a new way to fight inflation ,low interest rates is what we have all come to expect & whilst there is a good case for them to increase it will be very very difficult to do so.

[1carus] 09/8/2019 08:40

Young professional couples just starting on the property ladder are entering at about 150k, 0.5% on the mortgage rate is 750 quid a year to them. At that time in life I would expect their salary growth to be be greater than that. Interests rates will stay the same or go down until a few years after our divorce/makeup with Europe has stabilised. Interests rates could be moved back towards 4% over a 6 year period. Anything quicker than that would be too much of a financial shock and suicide for any government. ( Unless we get the current labour offering... then they will just run from one thing to another until everything is screwed)

[jugears] 08/8/2019 16:03

ftir10-Hope they do I have cash earning nothing but we are a very long way off that yet, but we will see what happens when or if we leave the EU. At the moment we need the government to make some very firm decisions & get us out of the money grabbing eu, If they don't want to negotiate then leave with out a deal I am sure we will cope. If the government had got anything about them they would have been promoting a by British campaign to support our economy when we leave, its surprising the things that you never thought you could buy in this country that are made in the uk, In the last 6 months I have reduced the amount of imported goods from Europe into my company by half & although these products may be slightly more expensive the quality & finish is first class.

[buywell3] 08/8/2019 15:52

Yesterday

India , Thailand and New Zealand ALL dropped their rates

They did so to try to keep people in work and try to keep GDP up

This was the 4th time in 2019 that India has cut rates as their GDP has fallen.

The currency wars are upon us

Lower rates hurt banks

[ftir10] 08/8/2019 15:37

Maybe, but I don't think that will happen.

Interest rates will go up.

[jugears] 08/8/2019 15:32

ftir10- if interest rates rise you won't need to worry about inflation as the country will grind to a very abrupt halt, houses will be repossessed & companies will fail at an alarming rate The government are completely F----d on interest rates now. most inflation is only caused by the value of the pound IMHO better to let inflation run high for a while & find its own level for a couple of years until the uk has resolved any brexit issues.

[ftir10] 08/8/2019 15:09

I'm afraid that is wrong.

The pound will come first, otherwise we'll have rampant inflation and far far bigger problems.

[jugears] 08/8/2019 15:07

Ftir10- The BOE were bloody stupid to drop them below 3% at the start of the financial crisis there wasn't any need for it, It hasn't helped anyone long term typical overreaction. I think you will find the value of the pound there least worry & that Interest rates are more likely to go to zero before increasing & it is probably doubtfull I will see them over 2% again in my life time.

[ftir10] 08/8/2019 14:26

LOL




Just wait until the BOE have to put interest rates up to defend the pound

We'll then see the correction that is long long overdue

The higher house prices go, the further they have to fall.

[jugears] 08/8/2019 14:09

Funny how they always put any good news at the bottom the bit most people miss because the are bored after the first few paragraphs.


Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax, said there had been a drop in the number of properties being sold. However, new buyer enquiries were rising, as wage growth accelerates and as the Bank of England holds interest rates close to the lowest levels since the financial crisis.

“While economic uncertainty continues to weigh on the market, the overall trend actually remains one of comparative stability,” he said.

[wfl1970] 08/8/2019 13:39

Alot of uncertainty at the moment, therefore it could well be reflected in the figures in six months time...

Time will tell.

[gbh2] 08/8/2019 09:40

The whole sector is suffering, mainly due to media negativity imo.

[m4rtinu] 08/8/2019 08:54

Belway update, for interest:

[gbh2] 07/8/2019 20:27

Jugears, I guess the difference is that I had the concept of retiring "forced" upon me by being offered a Redundancy package and a ten year run down period during which I could work two weeks a month in a consultancy role, for instance a trip to the USA taking the a two week period left me with the remainder of the month to do as I wished.

I was 52 at the time and the first part of my contract was to oversee the transfer of my Job and knowledge along with that of all other employees, to another country.
The factory was closing, some employees could move with it or remain with excellent redundancy packages, those were options, the Fact was the factory was closing because movement of goods and people across the EU had become so easy by the late 90s and early 2000s that separate manufacturing facilities in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain were no longer required, the Cake was to be divided up between Germany and France, end of story.

[dr_smith] 07/8/2019 17:32

Jugears. You are right, but.. you will have to let go one day.
If you are familiar with Richer sounds, this story will be of interest, and recognises the need for a phased let-go:


"Richer will stay on as managing director for the time being. Day-to-day operations are already overseen by the chief executive, Julie Abraham, who will eventually succeed him. "

If you have trained your team well, then put your trust in them, or train them up.
I'm not a parent myself, but reckon it must be a like question, where a balance has to be struck between guidance and allowing freedom.

I don't have all the answers, and don't know you, but would like to inspire and challenge you to make necessary changes. Those around you may find it difficult to be pushy on this topic, especially when they may have self-interest, be it family or work friends.

So persevere and cogitate. Sometimes when you are busy with routine stuff, you forget to luck at the bigger picture. If you were 10 years older looking back, what would you like to see of yourself?
A question for yourself, no answer required. :-)

Dave

[jugears] 07/8/2019 16:12

DR-SMITH, Its probably more to do with the fact I don't want to let go of control of my company I try to set very high standards & like to be able to oversee every aspect of the company to ensure things are being done as I would expect, Semi retiring would mean putting someone else in charge who may not meet the high standards I expect, I have built a very good reputation in the industry & would hate for that to change, It takes many years to build a good reputation & 5 minutes to loose it i'm afraid.

[dr_smith] 07/8/2019 15:32

Jugears. I am the same, I find it hard to "do nothing" too, but you have answered your own question, you have lots to do if you (semi)retired rather than the picture you painted, that you wouldn't retire:
" I had planed to semi retire, But decided to take a few weeks of to see what it would be like, After a few days I couldn't wait to get back to work ! I will probably end up like my dad working everyday until he was nearly 80."..and more.

[m4rtinu] 07/8/2019 15:00

Make of this what you will. Not sure I agree with all of the conclusions:

'On home shores, data out earlier from Halifax showed house prices fell by 0.2% on the month in July, undershooting expectations of a 0.2% increase but ahead of the previous month's 0.4% drop. On the year, prices were up 4.1%, missing expectations for a 4.4% jump.

Halifax managing director Russell Galley said: "We have seen a reported drop off in the number of properties sold during the early months of summer, which may lead some to speculate a downturn is on the horizon. However, new buyer enquiries are up, and favourable mortgage affordability - driven by low interest rates and strong wage growth - should continue to underpin prices for the time being."

Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: "Looking ahead, Brexit uncertainty likely will continue to depress the market, but the support from falling mortgage rates and solid wage growth should remain in place." '

[jugears] 07/8/2019 14:55

Typical down with the Dow.

[jugears] 07/8/2019 12:44

Dr_Smith, I have plenty of interests, Lorries,Buses, Farming, Planes & Trains, Gardening & get to see plenty on my travels the length & breadth of the country, I just can't sit & do nothing!

[dr_smith] 07/8/2019 12:03

Jugears: It's really great to hear of your enjoyment of your fulfilling work.
When you spend a lifetime with a strong work ethic, it is in your blood, what you know, it is in second nature, in your subconscience, so not surprised you can't turn it off.
I think it is key for a long life to be both physically and mentally active even when "senior", so retirement probably shouldn't be sitting in your armchair etc, that was possibly the norm in this country for past generations.
I don't think a few weeks is enough to change your mind-set, a great mind-set, but it means changes will be alien, not second nature.

Personally I enjoy travel and Mountain Biking.
I also enjoy DIY. I could pay someone but get creative satisafaction.
I like model railways too but plan to do that if/when I become housebound, less mobile. I also like astronomy but presently refrain as it would lead to anti-social daytime sleeping.
There are many sports and hobbies, so please try harder at finding distractions, may be do a 3 day working week so transition is tapered not a jolt. :-)

Dave