Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[smartypants] 03/10/2017 12:58

House building was the only sub-sector that experienced growth last month, and even then saw growth levels hit a six-month low amid fears over “less favourable market conditions” in the months ahead.
Overall, there was a weak rise in job creation, and subdued demand has been blamed for another fall in the use of sub-contractors.
At the same time, cost pressures have intensified, driven by supply bottlenecks and rising prices for imported materials, as inflationary pressures rose to a seven-month high.

[terminated] 03/10/2017 11:58

If it can just hold over 200p we might actually see some progression over the next two weeks.

[stewart64] 03/10/2017 10:36

It's more about sentiment than the actual Brexit affect
How Brexit will actually impact after 2021 is unknowable, might not affect TW at all.

[terminated] 03/10/2017 00:04

Brexit looming? They are trying to take it to 2021.

[stewart64] 02/10/2017 18:04

Smartypants...I see your point. But also think that TW price reflects that concern. In normal times you'd be getting 5% on your cash and gilts and 3% yield on TW stock. The fact gilts are yielding 1% and TW 7% today shows Brexit sensitive stocks are already priced low to reflect the concern. I'm certainly not blind to the risk.

[smartypants] 02/10/2017 16:50

I could be wrong....?
But I think that the BOE has already "signaled" that ... the bank is worried about the Domestic economy (as Brexit looms)... and house builders/buyers/mortgage payers... prospects (for example).

[minerve] 02/10/2017 11:41

stewart64 2 Oct '17

"Smartypants..as the November rise is pretty much priced into shares I think it would be more detrimental now to Taylor Wimpey share price if it doesn't happen. A hold then would signal the bank is worried about the Domestic economy and house builders prospects (for example)."

Excellent point and completely agree. Looks like Smarty has missed the housebuilding gravy train this morning! LOL

[terminated] 02/10/2017 11:29

The government's 10b help to buy programme is just going to expand the housing bubble. Now people need to pay 5-6 there annual income when historic averages are about 3.4. Good for us but when interest rates rise above 3% which is roughly the historic average, we will encounter one massive housing crash. What the country needs is for the government to take part in house building or at least release land to allow individuals to self build. Instead just get the duct tape out and patch up any holes.

[stewart64] 02/10/2017 10:40

Smartypants..as the November rise is pretty much priced into shares I think it would be more detrimental now to Taylor Wimpey share price if it doesn't happen. A hold then would signal the bank is worried about the Domestic economy and house builders prospects (for example).

Same thing happened in US last year, their Domestics crashed when the Fed didn't raise after it cried wolf, shares rose when it eventually did.

[jugears] 02/10/2017 10:40

Looks like my £2.64 short term target May come sooner than I thought.

[gbh2] 02/10/2017 10:24

stewart64, my comment was cynical, I agree there will be little change if the increase is 0.25% and I'll still be buying more TW if only for the July dividend.

[palwing13] 02/10/2017 10:17

It's to do with this.. .Theresa May promises £10bn Help to Buy boost.

[smartypants] 02/10/2017 10:09

stewart64
Yes funny that isn't it, isn't it not?
Interest rate rise has little effect on debt, companies or mortgeges, despite....
Despite the rates being used to combat rising inflation...no effect on company, mortgages, or buyer confidence/ability to pay..
And despite, all of the above will have a (massive?) positive effect on banks and their stocks......

[minerve] 02/10/2017 10:06

I have five builders in my portfolio and they are all my best stocks this morning.

[stewart64] 02/10/2017 10:03

gbh2...think the November rise, assuming it happens, will be a token and have little effect on either real saving or borrowing rates. The fact we are at the lowest rates in the history of mankind means it will be making very little difference, I will still be lending Taylor Wimpey first time buyers my money for virtually free and the Banks taking a ball crunching tiny spread.

The fact that TW has a yield of 7% against a fixed rate bond of 1% has less to do with the fact the market is worried about rate rises than the fact Brexit is coming and we are therefore all going to starve apparently.

[gbh2] 02/10/2017 09:45

Not much chance of an increase in savings interest, the banks will up the lending interest and keep the difference imo.

[stewart64] 02/10/2017 08:51

Think 0.25% rise is going to be about as worrying for mortgage holders as it will be a joy for my cash savings. It will make sod all difference. I'll be getting diddly squat extra and they will pay diddly squat extra.

[smartypants] 02/10/2017 08:17

Imminent interest rate hikes are clearly good for company finances and buyer's mortgages.

[stewart64] 02/10/2017 08:11

Scale of HTB going forward clearly not priced in.

[minerve] 01/10/2017 22:44

"the more important question is how high can prices keep going when wages are flat or falling in terms of inflation. "

But prices don't need to go higher. They just don't need to fall and the builders just make more.

[armourer] 01/10/2017 21:23

They announced on the 4th August that they were committed to HTB until 2021 so dunno if it's priced in or weather it'll continue to rise, the more important question is how high can prices keep going when wages are flat or falling in terms of inflation. Everything works in cycles. https://www.ft.com/content/c807ea4d-c41b-3a31-b90c-72da45d53cf8

[gbh2] 01/10/2017 14:16

I think it'll be new news to the average punter :)

[minerve] 01/10/2017 12:33

stewart64

Who knows? I am assuming we will see some further rises over the coming days/weeks as the news settles through into investors' and analysts' calculations. The risk always seemed to be that HTB may end but now action is completely opposite and - if the Tories stay in power - that risk has now totally been eliminated. With Brexit turmoils seemingly being kicked down the road there is now an opportunity for building stocks to ride a new wave for at least 18 mnths/2 years IMO. Great income stocks at the moment. I don't see interest rate action having much affect over this timescale either.

[stewart64] 01/10/2017 11:28

Not sure when the ten billion extension to HTB was first announced by the Tories. Are we to expect further gains tomorrow or was this already known on Thursday and Friday whence the shares became turbo charged?

[gbh2] 30/9/2017 09:19

They appear to grab a few every other week so it's only logical that they sell them at some point.