Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[technicalinveztor] 14/9/2017 17:44

JUGEARS14 Sep '17 - 17:39 - 19242 of 19242 0 0

I don't understand your post Your English not very good!
............................................................................................


" Your English "is" not very good. "

If you wish to try and score points, be accurate.


"I predict this will stay at 190 for a while"

Sorry, that's gone, Look at today's price.

[jugears] 14/9/2017 17:39

tech I don't understand your post Your English not very good! Why is there a strong sell & why are you indicating these are going to fall by 50% ? this is a very robust company with strong assets, good profits & for now an excellent dividend, if your unlikely prediction was correct I would re mortgage my house & buy as many as I can because long term these will always be a very good investment even if interest rates rise.
Interest rate rises will be very slow & far between & extremely unlikely to ever go above 2.5%, The BoE made the fatal mistake by cutting interest rate to anything less than 2.5% during the financial crisis & IMHO a very difficult to reverse mistake, The world is used to low interest rates & thats where they will be staying LOW! I find it very difficult to accept any figures that come out of the government & treat most as fiction. Over the last year I have seen my business & vehicle insurance increase by 25%, Mdf by 35% & All American hardwoods by 50 to 75% so I am not sure where there figures come from.

I predict this will stay at 190 for a while , probably down short term to about £160/70 & back over £2.00 next year,tech you have made a very luck call this week , enjoy it while it lasts because whilst Tw is still paying a dividend I don't see investors moving to far away for long from this.

[technicalinveztor] 14/9/2017 17:27

Ok, now logged onto chart software, details are --

Price closed 186.50p.
200 ma is 182.34p


Price is in free fall.
RSI is in free fall.
Mac-D still +VE, but only just. The Fast line has well and truly crossed down over the slow line and widening...fast approaching -VE.

OBV is still very high, only a small dip down which MIGHT be a saving grace. Time shall tell for sure.


Next support will be 78.60% on the FIB, which gives a share price of around 181.96p

[technicalinveztor] 14/9/2017 16:21

There will be a slight rise after a big fall.Overall. Long term trend is now down.Double top failed, macd soon to be -ve, rsi falling .Strong sell but use any small rise to off load.Double figure share price very feasible in the coming weeks.

[jugears] 14/9/2017 16:15

back up tomorrow & we all know who the winners & losers are going to be today, Thumbs up to the fat cats & boo to the panic sellers.

[gbh2] 14/9/2017 15:58

Interesting angle of looking at a investment Doyden :)

I've never considered an investment in isolation before, but since my first TW purchase (May 2009) I've made exactly 49 further purchases & 46 sells, which in isolation have resulted in over 24K profit not including dividends or the value of my current holding.

Not bad for a Hobbyist, if only I'd had a similar performance on all my other interests.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 14/9/2017 15:50

I thought the message was a little bit clearer than that. And most central bankers are looking at the US in a rather envious way having started to achieve a decent rate level to cushion and provide stimulus for the next downturn

[pet lover] 14/9/2017 15:49

So house prices are now falling with ten year mortgages at just 2.9%.

When rates hit 7% 14% and 21% your see houses down around 90%.

Most think that's daft.

I personally see a default of government bonds around the world.

As it spreads the only way for a country to survive is to follow.

[podium] 14/9/2017 15:45

Interest rates might go up in the future, just like the past umpteen years then.

[doyden] 14/9/2017 15:15

They still haven't raised interest rates even in the face of inflation well above their target and with record employment. Okay they've said they'll likely raise rates soon but I've seen it all before. They are trying to affect the market and consumer spending by words rather than actually pulling the lever.Even if and when they do raise rates, it will take years to reach 5% if it even makes it that far. Low rates are the new norm for years to come. So, I'll rest easy that TW will continue to perform well. I see no end to the strong demand for housing so I believe TWs attractive dividend will be around for a while yet. Besides it would have to fall to 24p to hit my average price having held since 2008. Oh and the dividends have long since paid back my original investment so my shares are free anyway. Back above £2 by Christmas.

[jugears] 14/9/2017 15:10

Money men taking advantage of any situation that could possibly effect the shares, Do you really think that with the Uk about to exit the Eu & the uncertainty that this will bring We are really going to see interest rates rise any time soon. Prices have increased due to imports being more expensive & not people going out having a spending spree, I have never trusted Mr Carney & now he is playing a very dangerous game & if he is not careful could have very serious consequences IMHO at the moment we are better having higher inflation & a lower pound & interest rates until till we Know the full impact of Brexit.

[martyn9] 14/9/2017 15:09

Interest rates will rise at some point in the near future that's a fact, but the BOE won't want to create panic and imo will only move up at a modest .25% increments.

[technicalinveztor] 14/9/2017 14:29

Once below the 200ma, it's a game changer.Strong Sell.

[jugears] 14/9/2017 14:01

Down today up tomorrow!

[jugears] 14/9/2017 13:59

Inflation may be rising but i will eat my hat if interest rates rise before next summer,The BofE are playing a very dangerous game, The price of goods may be rising(Due to Brexit Only) but the economy is still just bumping along any rate rise now above 1/2 a percent & things will grind to an immediate halt, I have always said that interest rate should never have dropped below 2% This would have given a far better balance between savers & borrowers & IMHO would have helped the economy improve far quicker after the financial crisis than it did. It doesn't matter what interest rates are whether they are 1% or 3% people get used to paying that figure & adjust there life stile to suite it doesn't really stop them from buying houses, but would cut down on the useless foreign Junk that we import & thus cut down on our balance of payments.

[technicalinveztor] 14/9/2017 13:14

Might get some capitulation hopefully.

[d1nga] 14/9/2017 13:12

Hinting at interest rates going up obviously not good news for builders

[smartypants] 14/9/2017 13:03

Looks like low interest rates are bad for mortgages and house builders ??
Especially if they are held completly as expected ??

[pet lover] 14/9/2017 12:56

Margins of 20% go to zero when prices fall that amount,then the land write downs come into play.

[pet lover] 14/9/2017 12:55

Margins of 20% go to zero when prices fall that amount,then the land write downs come into play.

[technicalinveztor] 14/9/2017 12:41

Sub 190's arriving.

[jugears] 14/9/2017 12:29

Not worked on any sites for a long time that haven't got social housing on them.

[gbh2] 14/9/2017 09:15

TW like most Builders, often use the "Insufficient profit on this build" in certain areas, in order to avoid allocating plots for social housing.