Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[m4rtinu] 15/11/2016 14:36

Speeds - thanks for comment. And for positive article above. MU

[speedsgh] 15/11/2016 12:59

Jefferies: Taylor Wimpey on course for strong 2017 -

Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey (TW) has been unaffected by this year’s political events and Jefferies analysts believe profits will grow next year.

Analyst Anthony Codling retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of 203p on the stock, which was trading at 150p at the time of writing.

‘Taylor Wimpey’s plans for 2016 have not been derailed by this year’s political events and the forward orderbook suggests that profits will grow further in 2017,’ he said.

‘We are leaving our estimates for this year and next year unchanged. Cash generation is strong and the group remains committed to the previously announced £450 million dividend payment to shareholders in 2017. Taylor Wimpey remains our top pick of the housebuilders we cover.’

He said the group had stuck to ‘a clear strategy since the credit crunch, to focus on value rather than volume and to invest in strategic land’ and was now getting close to ‘optimal scale’.

[speedsgh] 15/11/2016 12:57

m4rtinu - I wonder why they prefer to label these larger dividends as "special". Why not incorporate them into "interim and final"? Unless, of course, they don't intend to continue with them indefinitely.

I've noted that payment of a small core/maintenance dividend supplemented by special dividends to return excess capital has become more prevalent in recent yrs, particularly in highly cyclical sectors (HBs, property companies e.g. TW., UAI) or those where it is difficult to predict the amount of capital that may need to be retained by a business in any given year (insurers e.g. LRE, DLG, ADM).

I suppose it is all about flexibility; easier to maintain a core/maintenance dividend even in tougher times. Instead of having to officially cut/rebase the dividend, one simply pays a variable special dividend. Partly investor expectation management/PR management. As an investor in such sectors/companies you just need to accept that, when it comes dividends, what goes up is most likely to come down at some point. Don't necessarily base your dividend expectations on the better years, rather an average payout over the cycle. Aimho

[tyranosaurus] 15/11/2016 10:06

I don`t consider the recent 0.53p dividend to be significant.

[libertine] 15/11/2016 10:00

27 July 2016
Returns to shareholders

We have been clear that our Dividend Policy, as an output of our strategy, is inherently linked to the cyclical environment in which we operate and so comprises an ordinary dividend to be paid through all stages of the cycle and a special dividend to be paid at appropriate times in the cycle. We remain confident that we can continue to be significantly cash generative. This will enable us to sustain a significant ordinary dividend to shareholders on an annual basis through all stages of the cycle, including through a 'normal downturn'.

[m4rtinu] 15/11/2016 09:46

I wonder why they prefer to label these larger dividends as "special". Why not incorporate them into "interim and final"? Unless, of course, they don't intend to continue with them indefinitely.

[gbh2] 15/11/2016 09:19

I thought they did well predicting what they hoped to pay in special dividends a year in advance which is why I don't expect a figure for 2018 until next year.

[michaelbinary] 15/11/2016 09:13

speedsgh - well that's really good news for me. Barratt's have been really good in the last 3 years, hopefully TW will match that.

[speedsgh] 14/11/2016 16:27

michaelbinary - from 2015 Annual Report...
"The Board expects surplus cash returns to continue to form a significant proportion of the annual total return to shareholders. These cash returns will be set on an annual basis, in line with the cash generation of the business."

Also from 2013 Final Results...
"We see significant cash returns as a feature of the current stage of the cycle and anticipate making further significant cash returns annually to shareholders from 2016."

[gbh2] 14/11/2016 16:05

I don't anticipate them mentioning 2018 until they are ready to issue the next set of results.

[michaelbinary] 14/11/2016 15:36

Hmmmm, I dont think TW are paying special dividends in 2018 ?, although I would love to be wrong as a hold a lot of them. :-)

[gbh2] 14/11/2016 13:14

tlobs, nothing at all wrong with the figures and other than I may have to pay more for future top up of shares I couldn't care less how fast the share price increases as long as the 2017/18 special dividends are safe.

As much as the above is what I might hope for it's not what I expect, however don't put me in the "this sector is dying doom & gloom" category - I hold, I'm sitting on a huge banked profit from this last three years and I have high expectations for the future.

None of which stops me from expecting the institutions will want to keep earning cash & imo the only way to put money on their books is through shorting because they control the share price

[tlobs2] 14/11/2016 13:02

gbh2 .......... What's not to like about the following? (with thanks to speedsgh)


Current total order book (excluding JVs):
to 6/11/2016: 8981 homes, £2.3bn
to 8/11/2015: 8546 homes, £2.1bn
to 9/11/2014: 7815 homes, £1.7bn
to 10/11/2013: 7557 homes, £1.5bn
to 11/11/2012: 6662 homes, £1.1bn


That to me like YOY growth despite the uncertainty about the economy over the years. Hardly the ideal opportunity for a questionable short! IMHO

[gbh2] 14/11/2016 12:50

The only way the institutions can make money before mid 2017 is by shorting good news share price rises. I'm expecting to be able to add below 150p possibly as low as 143p at least up until the next set of results.

[tlobs2] 14/11/2016 12:40

red army, if you are "not sure why" then it's perhaps a good idea not to do anything! LOL.

Investors are here for long term dividends and based on todays results that's what Taylor Wimpey are set to deliver over the coming years.

[speedsgh] 14/11/2016 12:36

Sales rates (per outlet per week):
2016 YTD: 0.75 (H2 to 6/11/2016: 0.70)
2015 YTD: 0.76 (H2 to 8/11/2015: 0.73)
2014 YTD: 0.66 (H2 to 9/11/2014: 0.60)
2013 YTD: 0.65 (H2 to 10/11/2013: 0.65)
2012 YTD: N/A (H2 to 11/11/2012: 0.57)

Cancellation rates:
2016 to date: 13%
2015 to date: 12%
2014 to date: 13%
2013 to date: 13%
2012 to date: 15%

Current total order book (excluding JVs):
to 6/11/2016: 8981 homes, £2.3bn
to 8/11/2015: 8546 homes, £2.1bn
to 9/11/2014: 7815 homes, £1.7bn
to 10/11/2013: 7557 homes, £1.5bn
to 11/11/2012: 6662 homes, £1.1bn

Forward sold for private completions:
2017: 23%
2016: 27%
2015: 25%
2014: 30%+

Average number of sales outlets:
2016 to date: 291 outlets
2015 to date: 301 outlets
2014 to date: 306 outlets
2013 to date: 315 outlets
2012 to date: 313 outlets

[red army] 14/11/2016 11:51

I'm not sure why but the charts on UK housebuilders are looking very weak now and potentially a good short.

[hernando2] 14/11/2016 11:38

'only' 23% forward sold, i think thats a great number., and there is an advantage to not maximising forward sales in this environment. I know someone who is buying in Ashby de la Zouch, Looked at a new build and quoted 450,000 price good for two weeks. Passed on it went back after another two weeks 460,000.

Only 2 % is , but 10 grand is 10 grand...

There is a dire housing shortage and if you want a decent house in a nice area you pay a lot for it.

[tlobs2] 14/11/2016 11:18

You obviously know more about Taylor Wimpey than they do !

All the builders have reported strong sales recently and this was in line what others have said and as such should be back up to Pre-Brexit levels in the near future IMHO

[daybreakers] 14/11/2016 10:53

It's what they didn't say is concerning, hidden messages there.

Zones 1 and 2 in London have slowed.

Only 23% forward sold. It was 27% last year.


When article 50 is triggered, it will hit housebuilders hard.

It is slowing.

[m4rtinu] 14/11/2016 08:55

There needs to be plenty of "carrot and stick" regards to builders in Autumn Statement. Incentives to build houses, including affordable ones and penalties if they hold on to land, without utilising it. Basically they need to expand capacity. This will mean some imaginative thinking on the supply side. EG I noticed that one of the builders is going to have its own brick factory.

[gbh2] 14/11/2016 07:27

Still the Autumn statement to come and they must say something about housing, all that's left is for the institutions to get on board and stop screwing up the share price

[catswhiskas] 14/11/2016 07:25

The weakness is well in the price nevertheless the fact this hasn't announced at least profits going to be more than ten thousand times higher than last year it's probably going down as per usual on this news !!!

[tlobs2] 14/11/2016 07:23

I think those figures look very good indeed and we are going forward with a strong order book and cash in the bank.

Good start to the week :-)

[gbh2] 14/11/2016 07:20

Some weakness when compared to same period 2015 but overall the tone is positive, the figures are good and the future special dividends look solid imo.