Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[gbh2] 19/8/2016 14:19

I think you're right Terminated and as I mentioned above I don't know where the rumor came from.

IF it happens will a second referendum nullify the first or reaffirm just what the electorate wants?

[m4rtinu] 19/8/2016 14:04

Perhaps they should have restricted the EU vote to "regulars", ie those that normally vote in GE and local elections. As many who voted in EU vote don't normally vote ;)

[optomistic] 19/8/2016 13:24

If they nullify the referendum results it's going to 'put a lot of people' off voting in the future.

[terminated] 19/8/2016 13:19

I don't think it would matter if article 50 is invoked. They could still call another referendum once negotiations are over just to confirm it is what we want. Invoking article 50 is just the beginning, until it is all signed off is remains just an intent to leave.

[gbh2] 19/8/2016 13:01

The electorate's wishes can be ignored until they're put before Parliament.

[cc2014] 19/8/2016 12:36

The government has been given a mandate to invoke article 50 by the electorate and as such has to act on it within a reasonable time.

I would suggest that not to invoke it for 2 years is not reasonable. I am not sure how this would be seen in law but I suspect it ignores the electorate's wishes so much as to be subject to dismissal from post and possibly subject to a prison term.

[gbh2] 19/8/2016 12:21

My impression is that Article 50 wouldn't be submitted until after a second referendum ie once voters have a more "informed" view of the consequences.

I'd post the item but I'm pretty sure it was a speculative comment (rumor) from someone during a recent TV news broadcast.

[steeplejack] 19/8/2016 11:33

Interesting.Are you suggesting that Article 50 will only be triggered once negotiations have been concluded and then the result of those negotiations will be put to the electorate in another referendum.That would degrade the first referendum result to little more than a commitment to negotiate an exit from the EU.I don't think that would be very popular with the Brexit voters.It's very sensible of course because a lot can change in the next two years with elections set for France and Germany in 2017 quite apart from the consequences of a collapse of the Italian banks.That said,the Brexiteers voted out and that means out of the single market and the whole package.Some might not have thought much about the economic consequences but that doesn't mean their decision to leave the EU is any less valid.Anyway,if the EU makes life very difficult for a GB exit,who would want to stay in Europe.A lack of flexibility will speak volumes.When Greece had their EU referendum a year or so back,the balloted questions were quite complex.They asked people if they wanted to leave the EU or renegotiate etc.There wasn't anything as definitive as a remain or leave that the British electorate were given.

[gbh2] 19/8/2016 10:17

The latest Westminster linked tale is that the Government are going to attempt to complete EU negotiations during the next two years and then launch another referendum based on the "facts" of what we are to expect if we vote to leave again.

imo opinion everything will remain up in the air until we see article 50 submitted.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 19/8/2016 10:02

Completely with you on that cc2014 ... its important to realise that TW or indeed the whole sector won't be shorted on any kind of a fundamental basis, but just used to give some high vol downside protection to the long side of the balance sheet. If anything we should welcome a decent short base being built in the sector, especially at a time when the business fundamentals are actually moving the other way and improving.

As for the yield, which remains sustainable through the cycle, this looks completely absurd in contrast to the equally absurd 10 year gilt carrying a negative 1.5% real yield.

[cc2014] 19/8/2016 09:52

Having read various articles over the last month, it seems clear that my view of the future outlook for this sector is not aligned with many of the "city types/fund managers/commentators".

They see in about 6-9 months time a deterioration in this sector with is sustained for many years as a result of Brexit. All the recent data on good employment figures, retail sales and commentary from the sector, they see as "public don't know what's coming so they haven't reacted yet"


I guess I see it differently - if we have already devalued the pound by 10%, then even if we have to pay EU export tarrifs as a country we will be better off, even if we don't impose import tariffs.

Also, our imports from EU are more than our exports, so this would suggest if both parties go for tariffs, UK gains a tax benefit from this.


Finally, the forecast seems to suggest GDP might be 3% lower by 2020 than it would have been otherwise. BUT, it would still be positive. If GDP is still going up, then demand for housing will still be going up (albeit at not as much as it would have done).

I've taken my position. I'll collect my 9.2% dividend (as my entry point is £1.19 including all charges) and take my chances. Even in most pessimistic view of life I struggle to see anything less than £1.80 as a decent 3-6 month target.

[raffles the gentleman thug] 19/8/2016 09:30

I think thats something to be welcomed rather than feared personally

[m4rtinu] 19/8/2016 08:56

It seems Clinton Group are the only ones with an interest of > 0.5%

[martyn9] 19/8/2016 08:51

Along with many others it would appear,shorters hell bent on keeping this sector pegged back.

[cc2014] 19/8/2016 08:46

Clinton Group appear to have built up a 0.71% short interest in this share.

[gbh2] 18/8/2016 17:50

opti - "I don't think .53p will be much of a driver to the x/d date, but good to see a firm TW."

I don't think there's a limit to institutional greed, they want every half penny they can get their hands on and they know they can walk it back down once the cash is on their books.

[cc2014] 18/8/2016 12:34

Nice rise today against the trend of FTSE which has been falling all morning.

Surely the city boys don't get their research from the FT? *grins*

[optomistic] 18/8/2016 11:53

Oh is that so pritesh...

[priteshpatel9] 18/8/2016 11:51

@optomistic - probably because he's no longer chancellor. ;)

[optomistic] 18/8/2016 11:42

George Osborne must feel a right prat after all his pre referendum vote scare stories...not seen a lot of him lately have we :-)

[raffles the gentleman thug] 18/8/2016 11:40

yep all we need is for pension fund managers to come back from vacation, realise the 10 year gilt is yielding 0.5% and their pension deficits are ballooning exponentially and panic will set it. The trouble for them is TW ain't going to be trading at 157p by the time they start writing out their buy orders.

I confidently predict these shares will shortly be back to their highs for the year !!

[tlobs2] 18/8/2016 11:33

It looks like the economy isn't going into meltdown after all !

Improvements all round it would appear :-)

[raffles the gentleman thug] 18/8/2016 11:03

I really don't think you could conjure up more conductive conditions for the housing sector at the moment - jobs market in rude health, 2.2% wage inflation, negative gilt yields, all time low mortgage rates and still 500,000 people a year flocking to live in our country.