Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[optomistic] 29/7/2016 09:01

farmai...yes please :-)

[farmai] 29/7/2016 08:40

One thing nobody is talking about here is whether there will be further consolidation in the house builders given the absurdly cheap valuations

[gbh2] 29/7/2016 08:00

The mid year dividends are a bit Special, I don't hold all the time but I make sure I'm holding for those :)

[farmai] 29/7/2016 07:31

Surely you mean the divs in years to come.

TW is the gift that keeps on giving !

[daybreakers] 29/7/2016 00:45

I bought a few of these. Looking forward to the divi.

[farmai] 28/7/2016 14:50

TW has a long way to go to get to its 50 day moving average - thats at 164.98 today and in my opinion it will easily get there, and then enter a proper uptrend

[cc2014] 28/7/2016 10:57

I think what I find most interesting is the amount of volume going through at these prices. It's not like it's a spike for a few hours. These are significant positions being taken, whether opened or closed and whether long or short.

[steeplejack] 28/7/2016 10:50

Ridiculous disparity of broker forecasts.Goldmans are looking for 125p while Deutsche have a target price near a £ higher at 218p.

[bonio10000] 28/7/2016 10:23

Basically analyst aresholes holding out to be proven right to protect their rep.

They can;t handle it if it is proven that Brexit will be a meh event to the market, which banks and housebuilders seem to be showing it will be.

[cc2014] 28/7/2016 10:00

I'm baffled too and continue to hold TW. and PSN and look for a significant upside.

I hold CTO and NMD in the "construction sector" which worry me a bit more but even then I see no downside at these prices.

[paleje] 28/7/2016 09:25

Today's Times has a small piece:-

The stock market continues to leave me baffled. Shares in Taylor Wimpey, one of the UK’s three biggest housebuilders, yield 8.9 per cent, on next year’s 13.8p indicated dividend, even after rising 9¾p to 154½p on the interim figures. This year’s payment is less generous, 10.91p, but even then the yield is 7 per cent.

For any share, in normal times, where the yield had risen above 6 per cent, the market was saying that the dividend was to be cut and that the company was in trouble. Yet there seems no possible eventuality, other than a complete meltdown in the housing market, why that payment should not be made. Taylor Wimpey is piling up cash.

The company has made it clear that if the UK housing market turns down, there is the option of buying less land — in which case cash will continue to pile up — or slowing down on the near-300 sites it operates from in the UK. The company is right in the middle of that housing market, in price terms, and has little or no exposure to the high-end London sector, which might give rise to concern.

There is no sign yet of that UK market turning down. Taylor Wimpey says it saw a slight increase in customers backing out of purchases right after the referendum vote, which was to be expected, but that the rate of reservations has since picked up again and is running at the normal level for this time of year.

Completions are heading up and average selling prices are rising. Margins in the first half were flat at 19.2 per cent but this is a one-off from writedowns for technical reasons at two older sites. They should easily top 20 per cent for the year, helped by the normal second-half bias in completions.

At the date of the referendum, about 90 per cent of expected private completions for this year were presold. Taylor Wimpey has almost six years of completions at the current level available in its land bank.

Given all the above, it is hard to conceive how those dividend promises, confirmed again yesterday, will not be met. The company will decide next summer on whether it will make a special dividend payment in 2018 but, at present, this seems likely. That dividend yield makes for a compelling investment case.

My advice Buy
Why Dividend yield is among the highest in the market, while it is hard to imagine circumstances under which payments are not made

[sogoesit] 27/7/2016 18:20

Indeed, scrutable, looks good and dividend upcoming.
With the dividend I will be break-even following my pre-Brexit purchase; power to the dividend!

[scrutable] 27/7/2016 16:33

tlobs

What I didn't expect was a completely unblemished report. Not one hint of a dark cloud ahead. Pretty unusual today.

[steeplejack] 27/7/2016 16:07

Interesting article published by FT back in May which i hoped to copy here but they won't let me .Anyway,it points out that US pension funds in particular (who placed a % of their assets with Hedgies) are fed up because of exorbitant fees and poor performance and are withdrawing money at a rate of knots.Yet,why they thought that X investment bankers,going it alone,would metmorphosise into superb asset managers is a mystery.How can these geezers know about everything from carbon tax credits to biotechs.Sorry,going off topic.

[gbh2] 27/7/2016 16:03

Pedantic, I was using the term rather than Institutional holders !

[steeplejack] 27/7/2016 16:01

Pension funds,insurance companies,managed funds(segragated and pooled)unit trusts,investment trusts,overseas mutual funds an oh....hedge funds.

[gbh2] 27/7/2016 14:48

Who else has the number of shares required to move a share price, certainly not PIs.

[steeplejack] 27/7/2016 14:21

A little anecdote ...true story

An investor went to visit a hedge fund in Mayfair.During the meeting,the investor asked the fund manager over just what time horizon the hedge fund invested.The investor referenced to a particular stock that the hedge fund manager had just purchased."Would you regard that holding as being potentially long term?" enquired the investor."Well", replied the hedge fund manager,"Let's put it this way,we won't be selling this afternoon."

I reckon that hedge funds who have adopted that sort of cavalier attitude have faced a horrendously topsy turvy ride in recent years and many have liquidated.To make consistently good returns,you've got to find a well managed company in a growth area and simply buy and hold.Boring perhaps but true.Just wish I'd listened to my own homily over the years!

[kmann] 27/7/2016 14:21

What planet are Canaccord Genuity and barCap on? And as for Credit Suise and the Goldman Sachs boot boys! FFS

This the the UK not Greece!

[cc2014] 27/7/2016 14:14

The price rise seems to be accelerating as the day goes on. yum

[steeplejack] 27/7/2016 14:05

I agree about Hedge Funds.They're not that clever.Their appeal is that they can go long and short in anything you care to imagine but that simply means they can make or lose money in a variety of different products in bigger size than most would wish to contemplate.If Soros thought the remain camp would win and thus didn't short sterling,I don't see the hedge funds going against such perceived wisdom and going short ahead of the result.If they shorted after the result on a heavy price markdown then they must be in a right bloody pickle!As ever,it's greed and fear.The prevailing tide after Brexit was to seek the surety of overseas earners which would benefit from weak sterling.The jury was,and remains,out on how the domestics would fare but the assumption was that things would be difficult and potentially worse.Let's remember,we haven't left the EU yet,it's business as usual until Xmas 2018/19.What is happening is that everyone's just getting on with their lives,the referendum is no longer all dominant,life goes on .Brexit doesn't mean we'll be living in mud huts and if it does,who's going to build them.

[mike456] 27/7/2016 13:47

I'm not convinced by the hedge fund argument ... IMO it's far to easy a get out when someone is looking to blame someone for a fall in SP
IMO we had the big fall due to uncertainty due to BREXIT and holders with stop losses getting stung with a 60p fall on the market opening on the day of the exit result.
Personally I'm very happy to have been given the opportunity to buy back in when the share price went down to 117p and reinvested about 40% of the gains I had made previously on TW whilst buying from 45p and selling around the peak .... Here's hoping my good run continues :)

[farmai] 27/7/2016 13:37

As we both know hedge funds and fund of funds are a broken business model, as we can see from June redemption activity with equity long/short fairing the worst.

Nothing is to be gained from shorting cheap quality stocks

[gbh2] 27/7/2016 13:27

The Hedge Funds control the share price and they can drive it down with impunity until they start wanting the dividend.

[farmai] 27/7/2016 13:12

I am a new buyer and can confirm that !!