Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[scrutable] 27/7/2016 08:23

tlobs

What I didn't expect was a completely unblemished report. Not one hint of a dark cloud ahead. Pretty unusual today.

[rogerbridge] 27/7/2016 07:45

Solid results here and looking forward to the dividends in the future. Our local TW site is still busy , there is a shortage of homes, so I think investors will eventually get involved as Brexit fears subside.

[tlobs2] 27/7/2016 07:37

Scrutable, so it was twice as good as you expected ;-)

[gbh2] 27/7/2016 07:37

Good results and a reassurance of their commitment to the already announced 2017 dividends plus an honest comment re the outlook imo.

That said I cannot see it making much difference to HF shorting until the next ex dividend date approaches.

[scrutable] 27/7/2016 07:33

What a superb report overturning the national pessimism about construction which is distorted by the London view of things. Life in the country at large is ,not only undisturbed but thriving on the back of historically unprecedented mortgage rates. TW is as I expected steam rolling along, dumping large dollops of cash in the kitty (£29m), and promising a large dividend bonus next Summer.. This report should cheer people up a bit.

[garycook] 27/7/2016 07:32

Yes,Great half year numbers and very encouraging.Should get a pop today on this news.Also Dividend policy intact,and paying the 9.20p,in July next year.

[scrutable] 27/7/2016 07:31

What a superb report overturning the national pessimism about construction which is distorted by the London view of things. Life in the country at large is ,not only undisturbed but thriving on the back of historically unprecedented mortgage rates. TW is as I expected steam rolling along, dumping large dollops of cash in the kitty (£29m). This report should cheer people up a bit.

[tlobs2] 27/7/2016 07:25

That should have the doom mongers running for the hills !

Well done TW :-)

[farmai] 26/7/2016 08:33

Just Capital increasing its holding by 10% - no surprise given how screamingly cheap they are

[tlobs2] 26/7/2016 07:17

So it appears that we have an overseas investor building a stake in TW.

I think that with the current exchange rates there will be a lot of attractive looking investment opportunities in the new independent UK ;-)

[farmai] 22/7/2016 18:37

Thanks Scrutable.

I do think people forget when discussing the woes or otherwise of the property market that Taylor Wimpey's average selling price last year was only £230,000. So they really are at the lower commodity end of the market, where house purchase costs are significantly more favourable than those of £1m plus properties in London and the South East.

Obviously the biggest danger for this market is the employment picture, but so far no deterioration is evident.

As regards the new Chancellor I believe everything will be up for review including a reassessment of stamp duties where the 12% rate on high end purchases is ridiculous and hurting treasury revenue through falling transactions.

[scrutable] 22/7/2016 18:16

apologies for duplicate

[scrutable] 22/7/2016 18:13

farnai, I agree completely with you.The situation is dire but temporary. Estate agents are feeding the panic to get sellers to reduce their price and persuading buyers to hold off until the sellers crack in their resolve. It's a time honoured way to increase turnover.

The fundamentals are that buying below £1m has never been as cheap for occupiers to fund . The BOE is seeing to that. However, The geared buy- to- let business has been euthanised in a single day by the immoral device of charging income tax on income deployed in funding. FOr investors trying to fund their pensions through geared buy-to-let their interest charges are in future to be loaded by 20%-40%.

I am very glad to see George get the bullet.

The market for new builds below £1,000,000 is booming. Above that it is struggling with raised stamp duty. TW, Barratt Devs etc will continue to do well. We should have this confirmed on Wednesday with the TW interims. Berkeley Bros may struggle to sell their hundreds of luxury apartments already completed and still empty or in build in Greater London.

The market now has to differentiate between the different house builders according to the price range they cover... and it will. TW is now very cheap..

[farmai] 22/7/2016 12:55

Agree other than for the fact that the structural shortage of housing continues - demand dramatically exceeds supply and I can't see anything ameliorating the immigration picture for years and years to come - once the market focuses on the fundamentals and not entirely predictable backward looking economic data or the ever present scare stories in London where multi million pound houses get marked down by 10%, the shares will easily climb back to normalised levels

[gbh2] 22/7/2016 12:52

Though it's been ignored by the BBC & other news media, it's the financial sector that's down, the manufacturing sector actual beat the Forecast !

[steeplejack] 22/7/2016 12:37

The PMI survey is going to grab the headlines.London is slowing fast.If you go out and about,the shops are noticeably empty compared with a few months back.As far as housebuilding is concerned that's not a dire warning of course.Nor are downcast estate agents.If the economy slows sharply,I suspect the government will embark upon a wholesale building programme in old fashioned Keynesian fashion.The problem is how the market will start to rate a sector that is arguably going to face a less rosy future.Yet,with building shares having been well and truly clobbered since the vote result,I reckon the market has discounted the worst.I expect TW. to hang around the 140-160p range in the coming months.I can't see what's going to cause a further share price recovery towards the 2 quid level right now.

[farmai] 22/7/2016 09:57

OMG indeed - seldom have I seen a share with this much buy/sell imbalance after two hours trading.

After the PMI data I think we can safely say an August rate cut back on the cards, which is supportive to home builders

[omg48] 22/7/2016 09:43

7.5m share buy @148.8

[farmai] 21/7/2016 13:53

Put it this way, its difficulty to see why the share price should drop from here given the land bank and balance sheet of TW, and latent earnings capacity.

Obviously the upside is limited at the moment by those fixated with property price direction, but one should still be able to make a substantial gain from here

[joemillion] 21/7/2016 12:01

Couldn't agree more. Topped up with 22k shares this morning. Will look to top slice at £1.70 target and expect the share price will reach this within the next month or so. Easy money from current levels. Good luck to all.

[farmai] 21/7/2016 10:03

The outlook next week should be relatively benign I would have thought. The important thing here is that house building that is critical to economic performance of the country, we have a new prime minister singing the virtues of the sector. For that reason there must be a reasonable chance we see an autumn statement from the treasury supportive of the sector. 150p is too cheap here

[steeplejack] 21/7/2016 08:27

The Barret trading outlook was measured saying that it was too early to gauge the impact of Brexit but fundamentals for Barret and the industry remained very sound.If TW. say similar,I wouldn't expect the price to fall.Anyway,the Bank of England is suggesting that things aren't falling off a cliff.

[battue2] 20/7/2016 21:46

Half year results next week, so should see a run up at least to the day before .
Should be good until they get to the paragraph about the outlook in the near term, if its anything like BDEV it will knock the steam out of this rise .

[tlobs2] 20/7/2016 20:15

I am happy to see a softly softly gentle rise back to a more realistic price for TW shares.

I can't see £2 a share until the dust settles but £175 to £1.80 could and should be a realistic target given the dividend potential.

[gambos49] 19/7/2016 17:55

Thanks Twinkle