Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[taffee] 25/4/2014 13:07

All the evidence of extreme stress is right in front of you...in fact
The reason rates are 0.5% is because things are so very bad...by all
Historic measures house prices are hugely out of sync with wages

Interest rates are going up....scary stuff for anyone highly leveraged

[el1te] 25/4/2014 12:53

And it doesn't mean that house prices won't continue to march higher. This argument is becoming ever more cyclical.

End of the day, we're invested here if we think the housing market will stay strong and housebuilders will continue to grow their profits. You're saying the opposite. Great, but banging on about a market crash (as people have for years) does not mean there will be one. For that reason, I continue to see the recent sector pullback as a minor low, and that it's merely going through a period of consolidation before the next move higher.

Just appreciate that confidently stating that housing prices will crash soon is rubbish. No-one on this board (or at least I highly doubt it) is clued up enough to predict if and when they will crash with certainty. From this point, I view the risk-reward as still being attractive.

El1te

[taffee] 25/4/2014 12:50

Doesn't mean they will be wrong in the future

[el1te] 25/4/2014 12:29

Tara - People have been saying the same thing about a market crash for years, ever since 2008 after suddenly everyone is 'aware'. No surprise that they've all been dreadfully wrong to date

Example 1:

Example 2:

El1te

[tara7] 25/4/2014 12:25

No it does not.

We all know how the young ones spend every penny ever week to age 33 (when they want a house.)

The game is up.

[larsson 2] 25/4/2014 12:23

This new 'stricter' mortgage application is no more than an Income and Expenditure profile which before the new millenium was accompanied by an asset and liability statement and past three months salary slips. A bricks and mortar survey was the next step in the process incase of necessary damage /repair was essential. Returning to the more prudent days now are we at last?
This should have no bearing on TW just makes mortgages affordable

[shaws67] 25/4/2014 10:40

gbh is right, hft's run the show. Not taffee telling everyone to sell. Pmsl.

[gbh2] 25/4/2014 10:10

Computer technology has changed everything.

[typo56] 25/4/2014 10:03

Nothing wrong with a forty year old investment book. Market psychology hasn't changed.

[gbh2] 25/4/2014 09:57

As this is one of the worst places to seek investment advice, best try one of your forty year old books, they'll be about as much use imo!

[taffee] 25/4/2014 09:38

This share is in a bear market the future low is unknown
If you are well in profit it may be prudent to sell at least half

[el1te] 25/4/2014 09:36

And what PE do you think the housebuilders were trading on all the way from 10p upwards? Sub 6?

[tara7] 25/4/2014 09:21

Never shorted a share in my life.

The time to buy this company was at 10p not over a quid.

Most here could do very well selling today.

If it was me I would be out and fast.

No builder or bank should ever be on a pe over 6

That can be found in any investment book more than 40 years old.

[battue2] 25/4/2014 09:13

Strange how they come out of the woodwork after things change, perhaps they had to cash in at a loss after getting caught up in the recent rise.Bless them.

[battue2] 25/4/2014 09:11

Theres some miserable gits on here today.

[typo56] 25/4/2014 08:39

Tara, your sums are for first time buyers with no deposit. We can't have all houses affordable to those at the bottom of the market, which means the average price can't be affordable to them. I agree though, it does feel a bit heated at the moment.

[thegameofmoney] 25/4/2014 08:37

With the "new strict mortgage criteria" coming out this weekend I think the market is just a bit nervous. It will pass, the banks are business's at the end of the day and aren't not going to lend to people because their hair cuts cost a little to much lol.

Tgom

[scrabble1975] 25/4/2014 08:31

Brilliant Tara. Maybe you should move town, or get better at your share dealing then...

[gbh2] 25/4/2014 08:30

Biggest driver off the UK market is the US market and when that decides to turn back positive our market will follow as sure as Night follows Day!

[homeboy35] 25/4/2014 08:30

tara is short on housebuilders then!

What's changed so much in a few weeks?

You are panicking if you dump now!

[tara7] 25/4/2014 08:29

Quick sums

Home town Aver wage £27K

Home town aver house £241k

Overvalued by a factor of 3.

Has been overvalued for years however the game is now up.

Good luck.

[el1te] 25/4/2014 08:21

Give it a break. We're all aware of the risks and rewards here. All that you are saying is complete guesswork. Nobody knows if there will be a crash, and I reckon that there won't be for at least a couple of years. Over that time, housebuilders will continue to flourish.

That expectation is as realistic as yours. The bank of england are not going to raise interest rates significantly if there is the realistic possibility of a market crash. Be realistic. More likely is that some scheme will be put in place as a safeguard. You can't factor in new legislation/measures into your forecasts. That legislation would be vastly more likely to safeguard those struggling, a oppose to punish them.

There is a big political game being played. No-one wants to be in charge during a market crash as that would cripple the economy. So is the bank of england going to create a crash? Not willingly and certainly not intentionally

[taffee] 25/4/2014 08:20

London market was a mania...same happened in Tokyo 1989/1990..prices fell
Up to 90%....google it if you don't believe it....they though it was a
New paradigm then too..actually it was just a huge bubble...prices have fallen
For 20 years and property is still seen as a poor investment

[scrabble1975] 25/4/2014 08:18

Ah, there you are tara7. Time to buy then everyone! Lolll