Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[cyfran101] 10/4/2014 01:20

Lack of supply is causing the house prices to rise at present. Not only is there a chronic lack of houses being built but also people are reluctant to move as they fear not getting the house they want at present.

That's good news if you can sell them but the recent drop was attributed to the warnings of affordability particularly as the ratio of income to house prices is higher now than the 1980s housing boom peak.

My point was the new stress tests that have to be implemented by April 26 will restrict "enabled" demand as the buying process is more expensive and the process will approve fewer people. The BBC report did state that the drop was more than expected and the deadline to fully implement the tests has not passed as yet.

If the FTBs are disconnected from the buying process then we have a problem and 57% of lenders (Mortgage Lenders Assoc research) indicate more people will be turned down.

Who is going to be buying? Yields for buy to lets are diminishing as house prices soar 5-8% and wages for renters barely budge.

I'm posting because when you have statements like "Fact is that all builders are selling everything they build - in increasing quantities (Copied from the Irish papers circa 2006?)" then a contrary point of view is required.

Time will tell

[scrabble1975] 10/4/2014 00:02

Broker views are all very well imho, but the legs are somewhat out of this presently, although a good bounce from this level up to 120p is almost a certainty. I'm sure it has further legs, but your money might be best elsewhere for greater short-medium returns. All imo, dyor etc.

[mike456] 09/4/2014 22:37

The broker views look good according to this site

hxxp://sharedealing.nandp.co.uk/broker-views/TW./Taylor-Wimpey

09 Apr 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
07 Apr 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
04 Apr 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
03 Apr 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
02 Apr 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
01 Apr 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
27 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
20 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
18 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
17 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
12 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy 113.30 166.00 166.00 Reiterates
10 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Numis Hold 113.30 - 130.00 Downgrades
10 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
07 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Barclays Capital Overweight 113.30 156.50 160.10 Reiterates
07 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Deutsche Bank Buy 113.30 158.00 158.00 Reiterates
05 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Davy Research Outperform 113.30 - - Reiterates
05 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Credit Suisse Neutral 113.30 134.00 127.00 Downgrades
05 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Jefferies International Buy 113.30 140.00 151.00 Retains
03 Mar 14 Taylor Wimpey PLC Citigroup Neutral 113.30 119.00 131.00 Reiterates

[monet] 09/4/2014 17:48

Housebuilders were buoyed by a bullish note by Deutsche Bank, which said the sector's sensitivity to interest rates has been overestimated.

Barratt Developments was among top risers with a 3.9 percent rise, while among midcaps Taylor Wimpey added 3.7 percent and Bovis Homes climbed 1.8 percent, as Deutsche Bank named the trio its top picks.

Latest broker views
9 Apr Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy
7 Apr Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy
4 Apr Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy
3 Apr Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy
2 Apr Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy
1 Apr Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy
27 Mar Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy
20 Mar Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy
18 Mar Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy
17 Mar Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy

[gbh2] 09/4/2014 16:53

Have you looked at the dividend, hardly that of good defensive stock imo!

[sven2006] 09/4/2014 15:17

Guys would you consider this a defensive stock if a bear market starts - afterall everyone needs homes

[homeboy35] 09/4/2014 14:21

Nice bounce back today. Lets see 120 again by friday

[phillis] 09/4/2014 10:15

Cyfran
Fact is that all builders are selling everything they build - in increasing quantities

[monet] 09/4/2014 10:06

Cyfran are you shorting TW?

[jugears] 09/4/2014 09:36

Why do monthly figures matter, So long as there is an overall yearly icrease where is the problem ?

[hillbrown] 09/4/2014 08:59

CYFRAN YOU ARE EXAGERATING FOR EFFECT.


What the BBC SITE SAID-

Mortgage approvals fall for the first time in a year
The number of people taking out mortgages in the UK has fallen for the first time in a year, according to new figures from the
Bank of England.
There were 70,309 mortgage approvals in February, a sharp fall on January, when 76,753 loans were approved.
The news surprised some economists - until now the number has increased every month since February 2013.
But the Bank said January's figure had been "erratically high," and the fall did not indicate a slow-down.
Analysts had expected a small dip in mortgage approvals in February, due to bad weather.
However they had not anticipated a drop of more than 6,000.
Business loans
Nevertheless Howard Archer, chief UK economist with IHS Global Insight, pointed out that the number of approvals in February was still
up by more than 33% on a year ago.
"The dip in approvals does little to dilute the view that the housing market is sustaining robust momentum," he said.

[shaws67] 09/4/2014 05:40

CyfranIt's no where near as dramatic as you make it out to be. Have another read of it.

[cyfran101] 09/4/2014 01:27

This is one crazy BB.

Has no one spotted that on 26 April 2014 new regulations come into force regarding mortgage lending as a result of the Mortgage Market Review (MMR)?

You not only have to demonstrate being able to afford the loans at current levels but also be stress tested to ensure you can meet payments if rates rose to circa 7%. Buyers are also being questioned over their spending patterns.

All this is to prevent the reckless lending that contributed to the last financial crisis.

So what does this mean for the housing market?

Well lenders are bringing in these new tests ahead of the date and this has already meant mortgage approvals have dipped 10%



House builders may have been enjoying increasing margins due to cheap land bought in the downturn and house prices soaring but that will start to unwind.

Its the MMR jab that is of most concern. Soaring house prices and more restrictive lending criteria mean something is going to have to give. Lenders will be more reluctant to lend and buyers less likely to pass the stress tests.

Even if buyers have a deal in principle with a lender these will not be honoured after the 26 April.

/www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news-and-features/sectors/regulation/regulation-news/nationwide-and-nottingham-lay-plans-for-post-mmr-strategies/2007390.article

It may mean that buyers who are approved could get a better deal as they have been vetted to a greater extent but would mean interest only buyers are more likely to be rejected.

I would suggest investors take an interest in the full May mortgage approval stats from Bank of England when they are published.

[naed] 08/4/2014 23:34

This share has typically followed the saying, sell in MAY come back SSD. In reality though this has been just before in both cases. I missed the peak but got out @ £1.22 to buy my house. I've still not got the house due to ongoing legal problems and if i miss this one ill be watching to get back in a couple of weeks prior to SSD.

[el1te] 08/4/2014 20:04

Dind't get to the 110.3p 200DMA at the close, so tomorrow will set the precedent.

A bounce back above around 110.5p would be a good sign, whereas a further fall does lead to that 100p target being more likely.

Personally reckon there will be a bounce, but difficult to know as it will be led by movements in Asia overnight.

[battue2] 08/4/2014 19:24

theres still a gap at 100, although its been close to it before.

[gbh2] 08/4/2014 15:43

Some large Buys & Sells showing up today.

[hillbrown] 08/4/2014 15:25

30m traded already...........

[sarahbudd] 08/4/2014 13:20

added to SIPP

[casino444] 08/4/2014 13:15

Maybe there's some tw news we don't know about yet ,?? Buying op or see if it drops lower

[jugears] 08/4/2014 12:49

These are the days I dream about, Anyone who Knows anything about Taylor Wimpey Will see this as a fantastic opportunity to buy more ready for the push to £1.50. Good luck to all those with common sense. No reason for these to have fallen.

[mike456] 08/4/2014 12:14

I'm not convinced that the Ukraine situation justifies a 5% reduction in the TW share price so I've just bought a few more

[shaws67] 08/4/2014 11:49

No matter what share anyone is holding, the market fairly well down. Could be a long hold now for a few ppl.