Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sir rational] 10/7/2011 16:53

45p by the eoy sounds about right.

But it'll overshoot at some point and that's when I'll sell @ 50p ;-)

[shaws37] 10/7/2011 16:41

45p by year end is ok, i would have thought 52p+ would be more of a target especially with their debts massively reduced once TM sale complete.

But im just hoping as looking for a healthy return.

[lyntwyn] 10/7/2011 14:13

What to buy for a market bounce (sunday Times)

Investors have been told to prepare for a third-quarter bounce in stock markets, despite disappointing jobs data from America on Friday. The FTSE 100 closed flat at 5,991 last week, but has rallied 6% over the past two weeks as markets became confident a Greek debt default can be averted.

Fund managers and professional investors have been steadily buying shares in anticipation of a rebound, with equities at their cheapest for several decades. ....



In Britain, Nick Raynor at the Share Centre favours banks, housebuilders and retailers. He tips Barclays, which is paying a small dividend again and which was trading at 252p on Friday. Raynor said he expects the bank's price to rise about 20% to 300p by the end of the year.

For housebuilders, he likes Taylor Wimpey, which was trading at 38½p on Friday and is expected to reach about 45p by the end of the year. Home Retail, which owns Argos and Homebase, is another favoured stock. It is trading at 162½p and is expected to hit 200p by the year-end.

[sir rational] 08/7/2011 14:30

Ah but no particular reason TW. should stay down with the banks so bouncy bouncy

[spennysimmo] 08/7/2011 14:07

Bloody yanks

[imastu pidgitaswell] 08/7/2011 13:42

Well a few less reactions like that to news (edit...) would be a start...

[sir rational] 08/7/2011 11:15

I'm in profit but waiting for 50p ;-)

[sir rational] 08/7/2011 11:12

But we have fresh, formal company information that TM is about to get completed - the deal that will transform TW. and trigger the re-rating.

Plus fresh trading update showing good progress this year and rapid improvement to double digit margin.

What more would you need to feel positive?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 08/7/2011 10:58

I can be hopeful, but I've been here for getting on for 2 years (in October) without anything useful (45p+). Just wary (and weary) of anything apparently positive...

[sir rational] 08/7/2011 10:48

Bouncy bouncy

[smurfy2001] 07/7/2011 22:45

Right Honorable Lord Lucan? ;-)

[edsthebusiness] 07/7/2011 20:20

Spenny, one still has ones 'digs' in Elystan Street Mucker

:@)

[jibba_jabba] 07/7/2011 20:15

Our war for those that missed it..

1.

2.

3.

[spennysimmo] 07/7/2011 20:03

MM1, is that you matey?

[edsthebusiness] 07/7/2011 18:44

LOL, and what's your 'rationale' behind that prediction?

Ps, LLOY will be £5 next week

:@)

[sir rational] 07/7/2011 18:32

50p by mid August

[shaws37] 07/7/2011 18:11

TW. is turning out to be a swan rather than a duck compared to BDEV who will have more debt once Dubs banks the TM cash, yet it's lagging behind.

Perhaps it will be this way until August 3rd, day of results. Then.....probably sink, as usual.

[gbh2] 07/7/2011 16:19

If this last week or twos reaction to the recent Trading Update is anything to go by, we're in for a long wait.

Maybe too long for me; this is looking good for next years CGT write off list atm!!!

[sir rational] 07/7/2011 14:56

Head and Shoulders Bottom (Reversal)
The Head and Shoulders bottom is referred to sometimes as an Inverse Head and Shoulders. The pattern shares many common characteristics with its comparable partner, but relies more heavily on volume patterns for confirmation.

As a major reversal pattern, the Head and Shoulders Bottom forms after a downtrend, and its completion marks a change in trend. The pattern contains three successive troughs with the middle trough (head) being the deepest and the two outside troughs (shoulders) being shallower. Ideally, the two shoulders would be equal in height and width. The reaction highs in the middle of the pattern can be connected to form resistance, or a neckline.



The price action forming both Head and Shoulders Top and Head and Shoulders Bottom patterns remains roughly the same, but reversed. The role of volume marks the biggest difference between the two. Generally speaking, volume plays a larger role in bottom formations than top formations. While an increase in volume on the neckline breakout for a Head and Shoulders Top is welcomed, it is absolutely required for a bottom. We will look at each part of the pattern individually, keeping volume in mind, and then put the parts together with some examples.

1.Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior downtrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior downtrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders Bottom formation.
2.Left Shoulder: While in a downtrend, the left shoulder forms a trough that marks a new reaction low in the current trend. After forming this trough, an advance ensues to complete the formation of the left shoulder (1). The high of the decline usually remains below any longer trend line, thus keeping the downtrend intact.
3.Head: From the high of the left shoulder, a decline begins that exceeds the previous low and forms the low point of the head. After making a bottom, the high of the subsequent advance forms the second point of the neckline (2). The high of the advance sometimes breaks a downtrend line, which calls into question the robustness of the downtrend.
4.Right Shoulder: The decline from the high of the head (neckline) begins to form the right shoulder. This low is always higher than the head, and it is usually in line with the low of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack, and the right shoulder will be higher, lower, wider, or narrower. When the advance from the low of the right shoulder breaks the neckline, the Head and Shoulders Bottom reversal is complete.
5.Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting reaction highs 1 and 2. Reaction High 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Reaction High 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two reaction highs, the neckline can slope up, slope down, or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bullishness: an upward slope is more bullish than downward slope.
6.Volume: While volume plays an important role in the Head and Shoulders Top, it plays a crucial role in the Head and Shoulders Bottom. Without the proper expansion of volume, the validity of any breakout becomes suspect. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing the absolute levels associated with each peak and trough.
◦Volume levels during the first half of the pattern are less important than in the second half. Volume on the decline of the left shoulder is usually pretty heavy and selling pressure quite intense. The intensity of selling can even continue during the decline that forms the low of the head. After this low, subsequent volume patterns should be watched carefully to look for expansion during the advances.
◦The advance from the low of the head should show an increase in volume and/or better indicator readings, e.g., CMF > 0 or rise in OBV. After the reaction high forms the second neckline point, the right shoulder's decline should be accompanied with light volume. It is normal to experience profit-taking after an advance. Volume analysis helps distinguish between normal profit-taking and heavy selling pressure. With light volume on the pullback, indicators like CMF and OBV should remain strong. The most important moment for volume occurs on the advance from the low of the right shoulder. For a breakout to be considered valid, there needs to be an expansion of volume on the advance and during the breakout.
7.Neckline Break: The Head and Shoulders Bottom pattern is not complete, and the downtrend is not reversed until neckline resistance is broken. For a Head and Shoulders Botom, this must occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion of volume.
8.Resistance Turned Support: Once resistance is broken, it is common for this same resistance level to turn into support. Often, the price will return to the resistance break, and offer a second chance to buy.
9.Price Target: After breaking neckline resistance, the projected advance is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the bottom of the head. This distance is then added to the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered, as well. These factors might include previous resistance levels, Fibonacci retracements or long-term moving averages.

[sir rational] 07/7/2011 12:18

Looks more like an inverted H&S by the day...