Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 08:42

Today is probably the last chance to get in sub 40p

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 08:42

My prediction is: a bit more consolidation, some broker upgrades, 40p turns into hard support, down the line TM sale and 50p broken for good

[newkid] 03/3/2011 08:37

Looks like a nice set of results to me.

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 08:36

Yep agree with that but the instis also like upgrades, and current year £75m looks too low

[barf2] 03/3/2011 08:27

It's just the modern way.Very few sp's go up on results thesedays regardless of how good the figures are.

More of a discipline thing with funds - sell on figures regardless.

It is the next few days that sp's find their correct place.

[fewdollarsmore] 03/3/2011 08:21

Sir - it would be nice to break and hold 40p let alone 50p stonking results yet we are still trying to crack the 40p level..

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 08:12

Gotta be patient here, still needs the TM news to break 50p

[homeboy35] 03/3/2011 08:10

get up you beauty

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 08:05

The fifth analyst fesses up

[spennysimmo] 03/3/2011 07:54

Tinky Winky, dipsy, lala and po. The fifth wanted to remain anonymous.

[127tolmers] 03/3/2011 07:53

Reported NAV 56.9 p. Likely new short term discount to NAV 25%. Short term price target 42.7 p?

Longer term target 10% discount; but that depends on US sale, reduction in debt and restart of dividends

[barf2] 03/3/2011 07:52

Gotta laugh at these f'wits!

What sort of money is he on to make massive,fundamental mistakes of mixing the words loss and profit up?

Will he name the '5 estimates compiled by Bloomberg'?

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 07:42

lol take 2 an hour later ;-)

2. Taylor Wimpey Reports Profit for Last Year on Sales of Higher-Prices Homes
Bloomberg - Chris Spillane - ‎11 minutes ago‎
Taylor Wimpey Plc (TW/), the UK's second-largest homebuilder by volume, reported a 2010 profit after the company sold its homes at higher prices. Net income was 259.3 million pounds ($423 million)
...

1. Bloomberg - Cecile Vannucci - ‎1 hour ago‎
Taylor Wimpey Plc (TW/) : The UK's second-largest homebuilder by volume may report a loss of 4.8 million pounds for the year, according to the average of five estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The shares retreated 0.8 percent to 39 pence. ...

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 07:33

Do I detect the hand of JPM in that statement lol? Very honed & clever.

They've also kitchen sinked a load of nasties, disguised them a bit with the deferred tax credit, also seem on top of the pension deficit problem.

Forecast £75m for current year 2011 looks very beatable and therefore I conclude:

There will be upgrades.

Tell Sid.

[busters] 03/3/2011 07:22

Excellent performance on CNBC, very positive , aims to be number 1 UK housebuilder within 3 years.

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 07:22

Laying it on nice & thick about margin improvement just so the scribblers get it:

We have focused a significant amount of time and attention to ensure that every new site is optimised before opening a sales outlet. This means having the right product, layout, cost base and sales presentation. This has started to add to margin improvement in late 2010 and early 2011.

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 07:19

Well peer group has managed NAV +30% or so once their operation becomes much less geared. If TW. uses TM proceeds to pay down debt and gets re-rated, we're looking at NAV 57p x 130% = 74p.

And there's another 10p of deferred tax asset sitting there which could conceivably be taken back on the B/S this current year...

[paulej] 03/3/2011 07:14

I'll hang around then - came in at 29p so have about 33% gain so far - results looks strong enough to see further growth to at least mid 40s.

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 07:13

More love to come from analysts:

Optimising development value

We continue to manage our land portfolio actively. We have made further progress on our replanning programme and have now successfully achieved improved consents on approximately two-thirds of sites that we had identified as being suitable for replanning. Successful replanning brings a wide range of benefits. For example, a change in the number or mix of plots can result in an increase in the overall sales value of the development with a minimal increase in build costs. Equally, it may be possible to reduce build cost through a more efficient layout of homes reducing infrastructure costs or increasing the efficiency of the build programme.

[busters] 03/3/2011 07:12

Pete Redfern currently on CNBC

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 07:10

Paul - TW. already let the whisper number be known - £55m tops, so £75m is an excellent result.

The £259m is after exceptionals, principally a deferred tax credit taken back on the B/S

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 07:08

They're going to love this bit

Our year end order book was 4,684 homes (2009: 5,431), reflecting a slower sales rate in the second half and our ongoing strategy of prioritising margin. The success of this approach is illustrated by the margins in our order book, which are significantly higher than the 2009 comparative.