Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[the old dog] 04/3/2011 09:36

Small Holding on iii posted this automatically generated TA analysis of TW



I think the general gist of it is 'buy'.

Woof

[michael9000] 04/3/2011 09:24

What do people see this share being in 4 years time I wonder ?.

[newkid] 04/3/2011 08:47

Would have hoped for this to hit and hold 42p today. TW still looks like a plaything. I just wish they would stop all these so called housing market statements. Why do we need them every month from 5 or 6 different sources. They all come up with different figures.

[sir rational] 04/3/2011 08:19

high 41.6p buy so far

[jibba_jabba] 04/3/2011 07:47

HPI at 0800..

[sir rational] 04/3/2011 07:21

Jon Bell, an analyst at Shore Capital, said: "While trade appears to be stabilising in the company's main markets, we believe the stock market is largely pricing in the sale of the North American assets and, therefore, there is little room for disappointment in this respect.

"We maintain our 'hold' recommendation on the shares, believing better value exists elsewhere in the sector, namely Bellway and Persimmon."

[sir rational] 04/3/2011 07:19

ANALYST VIEWS: IS TAYLOR WIMPEY NOW WELL PLACED FOR THE FUTURE?
Friday, 4th March 2011
RICHARD PARTINGTON
KEITH BOWMAN | HARGREAVES LANSDOWN
Taylor Wimpey appears to be firmly on the road to recovery. 2011 is expected to be a further year of progress, supported by ongoing cost cutting, while more recently acquired lower priced land should contribute to the recovery in the company's profit margin.

JOHN?MESSENGER | RBS
The group is in a stronger position to manage the land acquisition and home sale process relative to recent years. In particular, this implies a more selective land buying process aimed at maximising margin and value over volume – in essence allowing the landbank to determine sales output rather than vice versa.

RACHEL WARING | PANMURE GORDON
There has been a lot of improvement over the last couple of years, specifically in tightening up the balance sheet. It does appear to be in pretty good health at the moment, yet it still has highest level of gearing in the sector. If it did dispose its north American business it would hit normal levels. Watch this space.

[sir rational] 04/3/2011 07:02

What about when the exceptional refinancing costs drop out next year?

That would have more than doubled this year's profit before tax.

[cerrito] 04/3/2011 00:02

an excellent 82 page slide show which seems to have far more detail than in previous years.
Shows that Canada is in a different world ;2009 PBIT margin 19% going up to 20% in 2010, which compares to 7% in UK and 4% in US and Canadian order book of £568m at 31 12 10 not far short of that of the UK operation of £715m at same date.
Also for me interesting to see that proportion of legal completions in the UK to the affordable sector went up from 17% to 18%.
Bearing in mind mooted sale of North American business interested if this was hedged bearing in mind recent £ strength and see from 2009 statement that at 12.09 over hedged against US$ but presumably as their US4 assets are now worth more the hedge is now in balance.
Not sure if I see this going to 50p; no intention of buying more and question if at 41p one should sell

[paulej] 03/3/2011 21:31

I'm sitting on 40% profit today - sadly initial stake was only £2K - wish i could have afforded more. Oh well - don't be greedy!

[sequoia] 03/3/2011 20:17

smurfy2001 don`t worry I held CSC for a long time,now riding high with only 1.49 m shares looking at £5 from 60p
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[smurfy2001] 03/3/2011 20:02

SR, you don't need to persuade me, been invested in this bloody company for long enough way before the OO!! Thankfully built enough shares that will make me a packet eventually. Largest holding this one....

I can't believe this one is turning out to be a much better investment than BDEV, i've got 19K invested in that dog sat at a %14 loss.

[sequoia] 03/3/2011 19:54

Once people realise this wont fall after results then they will see 50p in thair mincie`s
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[sequoia] 03/3/2011 19:36

Would have thought NAV of 57p minus 10% =price of around 52p just my thought FWIW
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[sir rational] 03/3/2011 19:00

Reasons why 45p is too cheap to sell out

tbc but your thoughts welcome!

[jibba_jabba] 03/3/2011 18:54

Halifax HPI tomorrow..

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 17:15

Very nice, also more than 6m UT...

[smurfy2001] 03/3/2011 16:43

41p close, nice....

Currently sitting on approx 64.62% profit.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/3/2011 16:26

Blimey I've only just noticed that all of my October 2009 buys are now showing single figure percentage losses - one of them now under 5%.

I'm so happy...

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 16:15

...and following through with that logic, we have already been told that operating margin is already looking to improve early in 2011 - obviously the journey to double digit operating margin is not a sudden jump but a gradual progression of improvements.

What if we took half of that £64m extra operating profit - £32m - and added it on to today's £75m?

Giving £107m as a pbt target for 2011.

Some £30m above current consensus...

[the old dog] 03/3/2011 16:13

What's a fileter trader?

Woof

[sir rational] 03/3/2011 16:06

Worth asking yourself what 'double digit' operating margin by 2012 means to the P&L.

Currently 7.5%

So current operating profit x 1.33 = (£194m x 1.33) = £258m.

An extra £64m.

Could easily drop down almost in its entirety to pre tax profit...

[chairman2] 03/3/2011 16:01

closing price today will be particularly significant
for fileter traders.