Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sir rational] 01/3/2011 07:35

Little comp amongst friends, guys & gals, feel free to join in.

SP @ 09.30.00 on the dot tomorrow?

SR 40.89
WM 41.26
69 41.09

other entries?

[sir rational] 01/3/2011 07:34

Persimmon Profit Rises on Sales of Higher-Priced Properties
March 01, 2011, 2:23 AM EST
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e-mail this story print this story 0diggsdiggadd to Business Exchange By Chris Spillane

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Persimmon Plc, the U.K.'s third- largest homebuilder by volume, said 2010 profit rose as the company sold more homes at higher prices.

Net income climbed to 115.3 million pounds ($188 million) from 74.1 million pounds a year ago, the York, England-based company said today in a statement. Home completions rose to 9,384 from 8,976 and the average selling price of Persimmon's homes rose 5.7 percent to 167,249 pounds.

U.K. house prices have fluctuated as a lack of supply supports values while fading consumer confidence, government budget cuts and reduced lending crimps demand. Mortgage approvals last month stayed close to their lowest level since January 2009, the British Bankers Association said last week.

"Despite a continuing low level of mortgage approvals, the group is achieving improving returns and remains well positioned for the upturn in the housing market when it occurs," Chairman John White said in the statement

[sir rational] 01/3/2011 07:11

Nationwide HPI +0.3% Feb

[smithy69] 01/3/2011 06:31

SR 41.09 thanks

[sir rational] 28/2/2011 22:51

Little comp amongst friends, guys & gals, feel free to join in.

SP @ 09.30.00 on the dot tomorrow?

SR 40.89
WM 41.26

other entries?

[walkmi] 28/2/2011 22:47

Sir R - Put me in for 41.26 Ta.

[jibba_jabba] 28/2/2011 21:26

Housebuilders Barratt Developments and Redrow have both recently published results that point to a recovery by the sector, while later on this week Taylor Wimpey will update the market on its trading.

Sandwiched in between them is the giant of the sector, Persimmon, which brings out full year figures on Tuesday. The company let most of the cats out of the bag back in January when it said full year underlying profits would be at the top end of the range of market expectations, which, at the time, spanned from £75m to £96m.

Given that the market consensus is now £98.8m the market suspects Persimmon might even have been acting coy when it raised guidance last month.

Be that as it may, with a detailed trading update fresh in the memory focus tomorrow will be on how well trading has been going in 2011. "Whilst other housebuilders have commented about a good start to the year it remains early days in terms of the spring selling season, and the outlook for 2011 is therefore still uncertain. That said, we believe that Persimmon is a good quality company, which is well placed to cope in a housing market in which we see little improvement over the next 12 months," said Panmure Gordon.

"During the year [2010], we forecast that Persimmon will have completed 9.384 homes at an average selling price of £167,000. Net margins should have continued to improve to around the 8.0% level. Debt is likely to remain in check, with the group likely to report full-year debt of £51m (3% geared). This is a strong position, and provides the group with sufficient power to make value-added land deals when needed," the broker said.

Panmure Gordon is below consensus with its pre-tax profit forecast of £95m. The broker is also conservative on the dividend front, predicting a full year pay-out of 7.0p, versus market consensus of 7.42p.

[sir rational] 28/2/2011 21:12

Last entry 07.59.59

[sir rational] 28/2/2011 21:11

Little comp amongst friends, guys & gals, feel free to join in.

SP @ 09.30.00 on the dot tomorrow?

I say 40.89p

other entries?

[sir rational] 28/2/2011 20:55

The issue here is timing, guys and gals. (Got an annoying Polish sausage w@nker on another thread questioning my timing.]

If I sell @ 45p I will get +22%, @ 50p +35%, @ 65p +75%.

Annualised, double those (nearly).

Greed/ risk/ pain.

Wasn't too happy @ 23p, of course.

I currently think 50p looks a foregone conclusion and too dangerous to be out.

Will decide on target price after a bit more news...

[sir rational] 28/2/2011 18:59

Elsewhere Taylor Wimpey added 1.73p to 39.54p after four bids had reportedly been received for its north American and Canadian operations by Friday's deadline. Canada's Mattamy Homes, US group Heritage, hedge fund billionaire John Paulson and Starwood Capital were all said to be interested, with the highest bid reported to be more than $1bn. Taylor Wimpey intends to use the proceeds to pay down its borrowings.

[jibba_jabba] 28/2/2011 18:58

Tomorrow..

Nationwide House Price Index (07:00)
Consumer Credit (09:30)
M4 Money Supply (09:30)
M4 Sterling Lending (09:30)
Mortgage Approvals (09:30)
PMI Manufacturing (09:30)

Oh almost forgot old Percy reporting aswell..

[sir rational] 28/2/2011 18:28

Handsomely in profit already ;-)

[smurfy2001] 28/2/2011 16:57

Looking for 45p as next major hurdle.

[sir rational] 28/2/2011 16:38

Nice big UT...I reckon we'll be well over 40p by 10 past 8 tommoz...

[sir rational] 28/2/2011 16:32

Yep - big mistake here will be to miss out on (say) 25-50% upside by relief selling, it wasn't much fun @ 23p lol

[imastu pidgitaswell] 28/2/2011 16:28

Dunno - but the basic point is that they're worth the NAV, or higher.

We had this a couple of weeks ago - as the likes of RDW (trading at 95% of its NAV, with low debt and a UK-only builder) demonstrate (there are others valued higher than NAV), when (not if) TM sale goes through, then the 'new' TW. will have the same NAV of 56p+ and be a low debt UK builder, and should be valued at a minimum of 50p, reasonably valued at around 55p.

[lol short killer] 28/2/2011 16:26

40p+ tomorrow. That's for sure.


lol

[sir rational] 28/2/2011 16:24

Have to see what the analysts say...what the maximum premium any of the peers with low debt has got over NAV?

[spennysimmo] 28/2/2011 16:20

£1 by Christmas? lol.

[sir rational] 28/2/2011 16:19

So another round of bids due this Friday, revising my idea of the update on Thursday to just be an update on process.

Which means more positive news next week.

[sir rational] 28/2/2011 16:18

Don't forget the deferred tax asset that's linked to TM!