Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sir rational] 19/1/2011 09:45

Let's not ignore the fundamentals, the chart stuff is good fun but the fundamentals underpin it.

And they're strong & getting stronger.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 19/1/2011 09:39

spenny - you pay peanuts, you get monkeys...

Aphrodites - I would say the hard work and effort on the rise was pretty pain free and no effort at all - that's a very quick rise from 26 to 38, even if the low was absurd, and it can rise just as quickly again, as April 09 showed. As I am long from higher up, am quite happy to wait.

[spennysimmo] 19/1/2011 09:27

Aphrodites, the longer term weekly trend is firmly up. In my opinion, until that changes, you have sold out too early.

[aphrodites] 19/1/2011 09:24

imastu

As I posted yesterday the Elliot Wave technical analysis suggested 39/40p would be the top of the last and 5th wave in the series of 5.

I sold yesterday on this basis.

As I also suggested 35p would need to hold otherwise a 3-wave downwards patten, which frequently follows a wave of 5, could take us back to the 33p level. If any lower, 30p will follow.

We could even see a head and shoulder pattern develop around the 33/35p level.

The jury is out, as am I, but I would not be happy to be long around here as all the hard work and "puffing" could be unwound very quickly.

[sir rational] 19/1/2011 09:18

Little blips are inevitable on a strong run up like this.

Not a case of better to travel than arrive since the journey is far fromn over, ie TM sale and the re-rating for a de-risked debt-free TW..

[imastu pidgitaswell] 19/1/2011 09:11

Just wondering about that second shallower triangle from the first peak in 2009:



(Can't seem to get rid of that white box from the top left when I post that - can move it in the live chart, but doesn't stay moved when posted).

[shammytime] 19/1/2011 08:55

Nice intraday bottom formed...nice run looks on the cards now

[sir rational] 19/1/2011 08:44

lol

Opening spike shows the way forward...

[fewdollarsmore] 19/1/2011 08:41

Yesterdays gains pretty much wiped off.. was hoping we would continue to the 40's..

[spennysimmo] 19/1/2011 08:40

I didn't however expect it quite that quick!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 19/1/2011 08:17

It is looking pretty stretched at the moment, better for the longer term to see pullbacks and support levels being created.

But mustn't grumble either way...

:-)


PS - if nothing else, there's no gap today after that little plunge from the open...

[sir rational] 19/1/2011 08:15

The FT to the rescue, Spenny. FT seal of approval will lead to broad support on any weakness

[spennysimmo] 19/1/2011 07:58

I of course hope not but being realistic and looking at my charts I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a pull back to around 36p this week.

[jibba_jabba] 18/1/2011 21:05

I thought i read a little while back that Schroders were sitting on a loss, one can assume they have been averaging down, hence the huge holding..

[smurfy2001] 18/1/2011 20:26

What Does Deferred Tax Asset Mean?

An asset on a company's balance sheet that may be used to reduce any subsequent period's income tax expense. Deferred tax assets can arise due to net loss carryovers, which are only recorded as assets if it is deemed more likely than not that the asset will be used in future fiscal periods.

Investopedia Says

Investopedia explains Deferred Tax Asset
It must be determined that there is more than a 50% probability that the company will have positive accounting income in the next fiscal period before the deferred tax asset can be applied.

If, for example, a company has a deferred tax asset of $25,000 on its balance sheet, and then the company earns $75,000 in before-tax accounting income, accounting tax expense will be applied to $50,000 ($75,000 - $25,000), instead of $75,000.

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 20:24

FT is closely followed by some big buyers ;-)

[smurfy2001] 18/1/2011 20:22

Nope. Still holding but can relax given the outlook, that's what l meant.

Sir Rational - 18 Jan'11 - 20:10 - 6315 of 6318

Smurf did you sell a few?

[imastu pidgitaswell] 18/1/2011 20:17

Deferred Tax is probably not the bonanza you're hoping for - slide 34 summarises it at H1 2010.



Of the £798m total, £123m has already been recognised. Today a further £300m (in the UK) has also been recognised. What is left (£475m) is in theory another 14-15p, but I doubt we'll see it all on the balance sheet, certainly not next year and certainly the US part will form part of the Taylor Morrison sale negotiations.

But better to have the possibility than not.

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 20:17

Yet I'd somehow prefer them to sell TM for a couple hundred mill more in 2015 ;-)

[sister mary] 18/1/2011 20:12

Nice to see a reasoned, intelligent insight from this chap .. Sir Rational

None of this .. 100p by fri, dont know why, but 100p by friday

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 20:10

Smurf did you sell a few?

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 20:09

Seq - deferred tax asset is 9p now (announced), 10p next year (possibly, they can choose timing). TM sale is in the price but if it gets £600m then suddenly TW. can get de-geared, re-rated and enjoy something like NAV x 1.25 like peers, ie 75p to start with.