Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[shaws37] 18/1/2011 10:35

Yes very silly moo, they are trying their best to make TW look poor, dont forget panmure gordon have £6million pound losses to claw back.

Just to reiterate a whopping SIX MILLION POUND LOSS. ouch.

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 10:33

Silly moo it's 9.4p/share not 7p

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 10:31

Panmure Gordon analyst Rachael Waring said:


The focus of today's statement, in our opinion, will relate to two potentially positive bits of information – the sale of the group's North American operations and the recognition of £300m of deferred tax assets.

As a small caution, the Spring selling season is clearly the most important time of the year for housebuilders, and will give us a good indication of whether conditions in the UK have actually stabilised, and whether we're going to see further deflation (and further write-downs) from here. Whilst it may have been a little more prudent to wait until we have seen the direction of the market, [the deferred tax recognition] is clearly positive news.

To reflect the recognition of deferred assets, our target price moves from 29p to 36p, though our recommendation remains hold for now.


Simon Brown at Matrix also issued a hold recommendation. On the US sale news he said:


Although this may appear an attractive proposition for the group given the benefits a reduction in the group's £660m net debt position, the likelihood of raising £600m from the sale of these assets may be clouded both by the buyer's desire to insulate the deal from further short-term weakness in the US housing market and the group's need to agree a funding solution to the pension-fund deficit of £280m.

A potential sale of the North American business is no panacea for shareholders, although it does de-risk the business to a degree, while giving up considerable cashflow potential, especially from the Canadian operations.

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 10:13

You're right

[imastu pidgitaswell] 18/1/2011 10:08

We had that debate a couple of weeks ago - using the Simple Moving Average, or the Exponential Moving Average, as the SMA had the 200 day still heading down, but the EMA had it moving up and therefore showing a golden cross.

I recall the received wisdom is that we should be using the EMA, as it gave a nicer result. There may have been a technical reason, of course...

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 10:07

Bingo again - £60m ;-)

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 10:06

Taylor Wimpey Raises Its Profit Estimate on Improved North America Margins

By Chris Spillane - Jan 18, 2011 9:31 AM GMT

Taylor Wimpey Plc, the U.K.'s second-largest homebuilder by volume, beat its full-year pretax profit forecast on improving margins in North America.

The company will report pretax profit excluding one-time items of at least 60 million pounds ($96 million), exceeding a November estimate of about 50 million pounds, Chief Executive Officer Peter Redfern said today in an interview. Analysts estimated pretax profit of 37.5 million pounds, he said.

U.K. homebuilders, such as Barratt Developments Plc and Bovis Homes Group Plc, expect margins to improve this year after acquiring cheaper plots of land, cutting building costs and focusing on higher priced houses.

Taylor Wimpey rose as much as 6.5 percent, or 2.3 pence, to 37.4 pence in London and traded at 36.5 pence as of 8:43 a.m., giving the company a market value of 1.17 billion pounds.

The company is in discussions to sell its North American operations with several parties and values the net assets of the division at 500 million pounds to 600 million pounds.

"We are effectively in talks," Redfern said in the interview. "We have a number of offers that have been made which we're evaluating."

The homebuilder plans to use the proceeds of the sale to pay down debt and buy U.K. land assets. Full-year operating profit in North America will exceed earlier forecasts, it said.

Taylor Wimpey sold 2.2 percent fewer homes in the U.K. last year as low levels of mortgage lending constrained the U.K. housing market, it said today in a statement. The average selling price rose to 171,000 pounds from 160,000 pounds.

Mortgage Limits

"In the U.K., constrained mortgage lending and the continuing uncertainty in the wider economic environment remain the greatest restriction on the market and we continue to run the business cautiously," Taylor Wimpey said in the statement.

The U.K. housing market has weakened as the prospect of the biggest government budget squeeze since World War II and tighter lending conditions hurt demand. House prices fell for a third month in December as a lack of mortgage finance prevented buyers from making a purchase, said Acadametrics and LSL Property Services Plc last week.

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 10:04

This chart has a slightly different interpretation of the SMAs and shows the 'big' golden cross is not yet here - I think that when the 50 day crosses the 200 day, the instis pile in with more confidence.

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 10:00

Good luck. Danger of taking profits right now is that you'll never get in again sub 40p.

I should wait to see what the real analysts say, there'll be plenty of stuff in the FT later

[aphrodites] 18/1/2011 09:58

shammy

I posted yesterday that my Elliot Wave chart was forecasting a move up to the 39/40p region.

On today's move I am taking my profits because I believe we are approaching the top of Wave 5 which on retracement will bring us back to just above 35p.

The next move could be another 5-Wave upwards but 40p will be hard to break unless the rumours my colleague in Asia heard about an 80p bid are correct.

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 09:43

Maybe they lost £6m because they keep getting their calls so wrong ;-)

[shammytime] 18/1/2011 09:34

Lovely looking chart...40p today ;)

[shaws37] 18/1/2011 09:32

Dont forget Panmure Gordon are sitting on circa £6 mill losses so they will be running a short. lol

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 09:27

She couldn't bring herself to put in a decent target, silly moo

[fewdollarsmore] 18/1/2011 09:27

3rd time lucky on 37... or triple top

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 09:24

Shares in Taylor Wimpey rise 4.47 percent, the second biggest riser on the midcap market, after the builder raises its guidance for full-year profits and confirms it has received approaches for its North American unit.

'At the time of Taylor Wimpey's IMS statement in mid November, the group suggested pretax profit would be at the upper end of expectations for the year to Dec 2010, at which stage we upgraded,' says Kate Moy at Arbuthnot Securities.

'However, due to outperformance in North America, it appears we will be upgrading again.'

The broker upgraded its forecast to 50 million pounds from 31 million in November.

[pointscorer] 18/1/2011 09:21

There goes 37p!!

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 09:20

Cheers - what's the betting that the doll from Panmure Gordon reiterates her 29p hold?

[shammytime] 18/1/2011 09:18

Fantastic to see. Fantastic analysis Sir Rational.

This will be 40p in no time ;)

[sir rational] 18/1/2011 09:17

Golden cross happening in front of your eyes

[smurfy2001] 18/1/2011 09:16

Good posts Sir Rational, only just logged in to read the good news.

Plenty of upside to come now.

In a far better position then when the shares were 50p plus.



Well it's not every day that a share quoted @ 35p sees its NAV improve by 9.4p overnight

[shammytime] 18/1/2011 09:15

Starting to motor now :-D

[shaws37] 18/1/2011 09:10

Hopefully the GC will give fireworks, lots of whizz bang, and not just a poor "fut".