Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[shaws37] 03/12/2010 15:49

you might not be far off with your 27p. rather see 42p min.

[slytherin] 03/12/2010 15:44

19 millon new houses? Fantastic! That'll get the share price up to 27p

[smurfy2001] 03/12/2010 15:43

Surprised no one mentioned this??

Berkeley boosted by strong southern housing market but warns on mortgage lending, zero carbon

The housing market in the London and South East continues to defy any downturn, to judge by Berkeley's performance.

The company specialises in the south of the country, and it has just announced an 18.5% rise in half year profits to £61.6m. Managing director Rob Perrins said:

Today's results, which show an increase in both earnings and sales reservations approaching 20%, demonstrate the underlying resilience of the housing market in London and the south east over the last six months. Overall this strong performance provides the board with confidence that Berkeley can outperform management's original expectations for the current year and is well placed for the following year.

This confidence has helped lift the company's shares by 26.5p to 866.5p. But it warned that excessive regulation of mortgage lending risked putting a brake on the housing market, although it agreed that "irresponsible lending must be prevented."

The company also complained that building regulations which were becoming increasingly exacting on zero-carbon should take into account the fact that builders had to construct homes where people actually wanted to live.

Peel Hunt analysts issued a hold recommendation on the company, saying:

Good performance in the first half, and we will be raising our forecasts and target price. The best news is that Berkeley is finally spending more money on land rather than hoarding cash. A great business but the premium over the best of the rest means the shares are already fairly valued.

[shaws37] 03/12/2010 15:34

nearly 19 mill traded today.

[smurfy2001] 03/12/2010 12:24

Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Increased a Record 10% in October

Pending sales of U.S. existing houses unexpectedly jumped by a record 10 percent in October, indicating the industry at the center of the last recession is stabilizing as the job market improves.

[smurfy2001] 03/12/2010 12:22

Return of the 90pc mortgage raises questions for first time buyers

Would-be first time buyers, frozen out of the housing market by cash-strapped lenders demanding 20 per cent or even 25 per cent deposits, are being offered pre-credit crunch style 90 per cent loan to value (LTV) mortgages again.

[smurfy2001] 03/12/2010 10:54

I expect good figures, Christmas increase in employment...

[spennysimmo] 03/12/2010 10:53

US employment data out at 1.30pm today.

[smurfy2001] 03/12/2010 10:05

Wake me up please when we're at 45p

Thanks

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/12/2010 10:05

BKG looks to have broken its down trend(s). It is a bit different to the other builders, with its strategy, net cash and London exposure, but it is in the same business in the same country at least...

Might be a good indicator for the rest of the sector.

[spennysimmo] 03/12/2010 09:52

Well so far so good.

[qed2] 03/12/2010 09:44

Great bit of work, Spenny - many thanks.

[slytherin] 03/12/2010 09:32

Good prediction this morning Spenny. Respect, innit

[fewdollarsmore] 03/12/2010 09:12

Thanks for taking the time to post should be interesting to see if the turn out right and we hit the 30p level..

Appreciate the time taken to do get the sorted, thanks again

[kfp] 03/12/2010 08:22

Losing money ? welcome to the world of investing !

[19jeremy] 02/12/2010 23:31

Hi spenny

I am very much an amateur here and do not have the time to follow the I should. However I did buy into Tw. And am out of pocket at the moment. So does your chart indicate good things are about to happen?

Cheers

[spennysimmo] 02/12/2010 22:43

Ok, back up and running. FEW, take a look at this chart. It is the daily chart for TW. and to me it is very interesting. Firstly have a look at the lilac horizontal lines and the associated lilac arrows. What I am pointing out here are low points in the share price and the positioning of the MACD Histogram at that time. The MACD histgogram is a very good indicator of the force behind a rise or fall. As you can see, on all these lilac indicated low points the MACD-H at that time was very low. The force of the bears to bring the share price down was strong. Now have a look at the first brown line and arrow. The line shows another low point in the share price but this time the MACD-H stayed above the zero line. The bears did not have enough force to bring the MACD-H into negative territory. The force of the bears was weak this time, even though the share price was at a low point and look what happened afterwards. The bears had run out of power and a rally followed. We are at that point again. The share price yesterday and Tuesday were again at low points (the second brown line) but again the bears could only just manage to force the MACD-H under the zero line (the second brown arrow). The force of the bears is again weak. Today this was confirmed. The MACD-H turned positive, both the MACD-H and the 21 EMA turned up and the share price closed at the high of the day. In the absence of any overnight negative market news, I suspect a very positive opening tomorrow for the longs and a rally to follow over the coming days. There was also very good fundamental property news from the US today which just adds to my positive outlook right now. Hope this helps and it is just my view.

[spennysimmo] 02/12/2010 20:59

FEW, for some reason I need to rebuild my Windows partition and reinstall my charting software and set it all up again. I'll try and do it this evening but might be tomorrow.

[mashraf] 02/12/2010 17:13

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rise a Record 10%
By Courtney Schlisserman and Timothy R. Homan - Dec 2, 2010 4:34 PM GMT

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A "For Sale" sign sits outside a home in Raleigh, North Carolina. Photographer: Jim R. Bounds/Bloomberg


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Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, discusses the European sovereign debt crisis, Federal Reserve monetary policy and the U.S. labor market. LeBas speaks with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)

Pending sales of U.S. existing houses unexpectedly jumped by a record 10 percent in October, indicating the industry at the center of the last recession is stabilizing as the job market improves.

The increase in the number of Americans signing contacts to buy previously owned homes followed a 1.8 percent drop in September, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. Another report showed claims for jobless benefits over the past month on average dropped to a two-year low.

Combined with figures showing chain-store sales topped estimates last month, the reports added to evidence the world's largest economy is strengthening, sending stocks up for a second day. Cheaper borrowing costs, lower prices and more jobs may entice homebuyers in coming months, helping the real-estate market regain its footing after the end of a tax credit caused demand to slump.

"The fundamentals that are driving home sales are low mortgage rates combined with job and income growth and that's why housing should be expected to grow in coming months," said Dean Maki, chief economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. "Housing activity will still look low relative to the boom years, but we expect a solid growth rate to occur."

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 1.1 percent to 1,218.97 at 11:31 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities gained, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note down to 2.95 percent from 2.97 percent late yesterday.

Claims Slowing

The number of applications for jobless benefits averaged 431,000 a week over the month ended Nov. 27, the lowest level since August 2008, Labor Department figures showed. Claims increased by 26,000 last week, more than forecast, to 436,000, after reaching a two-year low.

"The labor market is definitely improving," said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania. "Overall, the economy seems to be outperforming expectations this quarter, which is encouraging because it gives us positive momentum into next year."

A Labor Department report tomorrow may show employers added 145,000 workers last month and the unemployment rate held at 9.6 percent.

Pending home sales were projected to decrease 1 percent, based on the median of 40 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 4.8 percent to a gain of 3 percent.

Three of four U.S. regions saw an increase, today's report showed, including gains of 27 percent in the Midwest, 20 percent in the Northeast and 7.1 percent in the South. Purchases fell 0.4 percent in the West.

'Uneven' Recovery

"The housing market clearly is in a recovery phase and will be uneven at times, but the improving job market and consequential boost to household formation will help the recovery process going into 2011," Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said in a statement. "But activity needs to improve further to reach healthy, sustainable levels."

Compared with October 2009, pending sales were down 22 percent.

Housing is an ongoing concern for Federal Reserve policy makers, who last month announced additional asset purchases to spur growth and reduce unemployment.

"Housing markets remain depressed, with several Districts reporting further weakening during the past six weeks," the Fed said in its Beige Book report, which is based on anecdotal information.

The Fed's report, released yesterday, showed the economy strengthened across much of the U.S. as hiring improved, manufacturing expanded and retailers anticipated a stronger holiday shopping season.

November comparable-store sales rose 5.3 percent at U.S. retailers, compared with a 3.5 percent estimate, Retail Metrics Inc. president Ken Perkins said in an interview.

Mortgage Rates

The average rate on a fixed 30-year mortgage reached 4.17 percent in mid November, the lowest level since Freddie Mac records going back to 1972, after the Fed announced it would pump another $600 billion into the banking system by June to spur growth. The average rate climbed to 4.46 percent in the week ended today, a four-month high, on mounting evidence the economy is improving.

The real-estate agents group's housing affordability index, which takes into account borrowing costs, home prices and household incomes, climbed to a record in October.

Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings. Purchases of previously owned homes are tabulated when a contract closes, typically a month or two later.

Credit's Influence

Sales of existing homes, which now make up about 90 percent of the market, fell more than forecast in October as foreclosure moratoriums and a lack of credit disrupted the market, data from the Realtors group showed last week. In July, sales ran at the weakest pace in records going back a decade.

The tax credit worth as much as $8,000 required contracts be signed on April 30 and closed by Sept. 30. Many of the closings occurred in May and June because the original incentive called for transactions to be completed by June 30.

Companies including Beazer Homes USA Inc., which builds houses for first-time buyers, are cautious about next year.

"Sustained high unemployment levels and the overhang of foreclosures make it very difficult to predict when and to what extent the housing market will recover," Ian McCarthy, chief executive officer of Atlanta-based Beazer, said on a conference call with analysts on Nov. 5.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at [e-mail]; Timothy R. Homan in Washington at [e-mail]

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at [e-mail]

[shaws37] 02/12/2010 16:56

wow, great end to the day. c'mon 42p lol.

[fewdollarsmore] 02/12/2010 15:43

Yes Spenny would be good to see a chart

An added boost came after a realtor association said its gauge of pending sales of homes rose 10.4% in October due to "excellent" housing affordability conditions,

[slytherin] 02/12/2010 15:38

Here comes the big drop back down to barely positive for the day!

[spennysimmo] 02/12/2010 15:35

I'll have a look and post tonight if you want. Excellent house data out of the US this afternoon, hence the surge in property stocks this afternoon.

[fewdollarsmore] 02/12/2010 15:30

Need to continue and close above 26.5p to break the downtrend?

Spenny any proper chart opinions?

[spennysimmo] 02/12/2010 09:37

Now there is.