Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[imastu pidgitaswell] 01/12/2010 13:22

Hear, hear...

[careful] 01/12/2010 13:19

builders seemed to be making a good profit when prices were well below todays levels.
labour costs must have reduced because of surpluses in the construction industry.
there is brick mountain throuoput europe.
why are we so jumpy about small reductions in prices.

it is transaction numbers that matter.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 01/12/2010 13:18

I actually think it's a bit more than that - there was a risk, albeit small, of not being able to refinance the debt as it fell due in 2012. With events in Ireland, and probable events in Portugal and elsewhere, banking funds will be difficult to get in 2012 - anyone remember the scare stories (from Panmure and other scrotes) 3 months ago or so about all the sector's debt falling due in 2012 and how tough it might be to refinance?

All gone away for TW. now, and just a potential problem for the rest of the sector. Hence I'm a little surprised the share price hasn't performed better since last week, especially with the anecdotal evidence from all the builders that business has picked up since the CSR announcement now that most people have some degree of clarity on their job situations.

But it doesn't matter much, it's just a timing thing. I do hope, however, that we don't have a banking/refinancing problem in the sector, as the market doesn't seem to be able to distinguish between those with and without issues.


SR - it's about volumes, not prices. House prices can stay flat for years (I hope they do, then we will have clarity and potential buyers and sellers can make reliable assumptions) and TW can make good money as long as volumes pick up.

[sir rational] 01/12/2010 13:15

Latest housing market data and surveys remain consistently weak, and the housing market really does not seem to have got much going for it at the moment. For example, the Bank of England reported earlier this week that mortgage approvals for house purchases weakened modestly further in October to be at an eight-month low of 47,185. This was down from a peak of 59,215 in November 2009. It was also be substantially below the 70,000-80,000 level that in the past has been considered consistent with stable house prices. Mortgage approvals have actually averaged 90,300 a month since 1993.

High (and likely to rise) unemployment, muted wage growth, an increasing fiscal squeeze, low consumer confidence, difficulties in getting a mortgage (particularly for first time buyers), a housing supply/demand balance currently firmly in favour of buyers and a house price/earnings ratio above long-term norms are a poor combination of factors for house prices. Low mortgage interest rates and the current stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers on all properties costing up to £250,000 only partially offset these adverse factors – especially given the difficulty many people face in getting a mortgage!

Critical to the development of house prices over the coming months will be the amount of houses coming on to the market, mortgage availability and how well the economy and jobs hold up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in. There are some signs that the number of properties coming on to the market are starting to dip, which could provide support to house prices. At the moment though, buyer enquires are slowing more than new houses coming on to the market.

[spennysimmo] 01/12/2010 13:01

The refinancing news or the news of putting the US up for sale will make no difference to the share price in the short term.

Refinancing is for future flexibility. In the short term they have just taken the debt away from the banks and put it elsewhere.

Putting the US up for sale will again do nothing in the short term. Again this is for the long term and once it has been sold, providing a buyer can be found, then the price obtained and whether or not it is a good or a bad deal is what will move the share price

Overall sector sentiment and property market conditions is what will move the share price

What TW are doing very cleverly and quite aggressively is positioning theselves very stongly from a fundamental structure standpoint for when market conditions do turn for the better, which they will.

[fewdollarsmore] 01/12/2010 12:56

I can gaurantee that if the price rocketed on the news then the company would make some sort of announcement but since the price has fallen not a peep.

[spennysimmo] 01/12/2010 11:42

It is a revolving credit facility (basically like a credit card) so I would be very surprised if there were penalties for paying off debt as the purpose of a revolving facility would be to reduce and increase as needed.

[127tolmers] 01/12/2010 10:55

I am somewhat surprised that there is no RNS to confirm or deny substantial press rumours of a US sale.

I think the US sale timing is excellent now that the refinancing is agreed as it will now not look like a fire sale and a better exit price should be achieved. Given the regional nature of the US businesses they may do better selling on a state by state basis.

Does anyone know if there are any substantial penalties if any of the new financings is repaid early?

I would have expected the market to rise on the back of the financing announcement and the directors purchases. I still expect a rerating despite gloomy UK house price falls (normal at this time of year)

[edmondj] 01/12/2010 09:06

Serves the directors right, trading ahead of news!

[newkid] 01/12/2010 08:55

Surely it would be better to float then sell.

[smurfy2001] 30/11/2010 22:09

lol imastu.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 30/11/2010 20:07

Still in the downtrend...

[wolterix] 30/11/2010 19:44

is it a lady?

[spennysimmo] 30/11/2010 19:42

I thought the NAV was around 44p? Or was it 47p? Forty something I thought.

[smurfy2001] 30/11/2010 18:54

new poster? welcome sir.

[sir rational] 30/11/2010 18:43

if 24p = 0.4x NTAV

then 1x NTAV = 60p

[smurfy2001] 30/11/2010 16:36

Yup, already said that ;-)

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hiq - 30 Nov'10 - 09:25 - 5423 of 5425

Interesting thought - we had those Dir buys yesterday, a few hours before they went public about TM.

smurfy2001 - 29 Nov'10 - 19:19 - 5416 of 5425 edit

Too early too sell IMHO but coincides nicely with the large director share buy.

[spadman] 30/11/2010 09:57

My wife spends more on Jewelry than the FD does on their own stock

[imastu pidgitaswell] 30/11/2010 09:56

And I wonder if anyone told the Taylor Morrison director who shelled out for Taylor Wimpey shares?

[hiq] 30/11/2010 09:25

Interesting thought - we had those Dir buys yesterday, a few hours before they went public about TM.

I wonder if the Directors were thinking that selling TM for £600m will be seen as a very good thing - the mkt just needs to digest & catch up.

Worth having a look at the analysts

[hiq] 30/11/2010 09:20

Not sure of the tax position but getting £600m looks possible and that must be seen as a pretty good result in the current climate.

Shame they can't wait a few years but that doesn't seem possible.

[hiq] 30/11/2010 09:16

Taylor Wimpey to sell US operation
By Ed Hammond

Published: November 30 2010 00:11 | Last updated: November 30 2010 00:11

Taylor Wimpey has launched the sale process of its North American business in a move that could earn the UK's second-largest housebuilder an expected £600m.

The move to begin an auction process for the group's Taylor Morrison subsidiary comes less than a week after it announced a refinancing package and is part of a strategy to become purely UK-focused within the next two years.

Some of the US's largest publicly quoted housebuilders are among interested parties, according to people familiar with the sale discussions. However, they also said there was interest from private equity groups and specialist property investors.

Taylor Wimpey has long expressed an intention to sell its North American operations as it seeks to cut back its £633m debt pile and expand both sales volumes and profit margins in its badly recession-battered domestic operations.

JPMorgan Chase has been appointed to advise on the sale process, which will include Taylor Morrison's high end Mirasol development in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, which hosts an event on the US PGA golf tour. Mirasol's website lists homes ranging from $800,000 to more than $4m.

People familiar with Taylor Wimpey's thinking said the company was looking at the possibility of splitting the US and Canadian businesses, which are expected to have a combined land value of £600m at the end of this year. However, it is thought to be very unlikely that the company will break up the individual operations.

The move to begin the sale comes less than a week after the housebuilder reached agreement with its banks on the terms of a revised £950m credit facility, which would allow it to dispose of the businesses without seeking approval from the lenders or its various holders of bonds and private placement notes

Taylor Wimpey has guided investors that it would be reluctant to part with its overseas divisions for less than the value of the land each unit holds and had previously indicated that a sale was unlikely to go ahead before early 2011.

Taylor Wimpey, which also has small operations in Spain, declined to comment.
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