Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jibba_jabba] 31/10/2010 20:18

When is the best time to buy a share?

[essentialinvestor] 31/10/2010 20:02

BDEV will update at the AGM on the 17th.

TW probably this week or next.

[shaws37] 31/10/2010 19:57

BDEV could turn out to be the donkey. At least Tw have the american arm to play with. imv.

[essentialinvestor] 31/10/2010 19:44

The IMS was the 04th last year, so not long to wait.

The sector updates over the next few weeks will set the tone for much
of 2011 imv.

Further falls to come for many HB's in my view.

[smurfy2001] 31/10/2010 14:17

Future investor communications
• November 2010 IMS
• January 2011 Full Year Trading Statement
• March 2011 Full Year Results
• April 2011 IMS and AGM

[smurfy2001] 31/10/2010 14:08

Robbie Paul,

Taylor Wimpey have not written up their land, if they did the NAV would be much higher. There's no point writing up what in what is a volatile market. So if the market does lose %10, it won't affect Taylor Wimpey but higher losses would mean another writedown.

Company Price P/TB Gearing Yield P/E
Barratt 80p 0.39 30.1 0.3 29.3
Taylor 24p 0.51 42.3 0.3 11.1
Bellway 559p 0.65 (4.4) 2.0 15.6
Bovis 353p 0.68 (11.4) 0.9 28.3
Persimmon 356p 0.74 10.0 2.2 12.3
Redrow 117p 0.83 10.9 0.1 27.9
Berkeley 832p 1.30 (37.7) 0.2 12.9

[ludlowe] 31/10/2010 11:01

no mention of taylow wimpey (4828)

[robbie paul] 31/10/2010 10:48

Based on next years earnings forecasts most builders are trading on up to p/e of 20. If house prices were to fall by 10% surely most builders sp's could tank by 50%. The long term average pe for builders is normally 5-10 so sp's are factoring some sort of recovery which may take a while to arrive and any set back to house prices would hammer the sp's.

[essentialinvestor] 30/10/2010 23:23

The Sector SP's are falling with the cuts to 2011/2012 earnings estimates.

Take a look at some of the recent earnings cuts accross the sector, and the fall in some SP's is yet to fully reflect the lower forecasts imv.

There are some lower levels to come for many, as this new reality is fully factored in.

[racg] 30/10/2010 22:07

Well worth saying twice!

[hiq] 30/10/2010 20:24

Hello!

Who's watching y-fukker?

[ludlowe] 30/10/2010 20:14

soz jab , after years of respect ,that was one stewpid post .fact

;')

[smurfy2001] 30/10/2010 20:12

> ludlowe - 30 Oct'10 - 17:11 - 4822 of 4824

For once, l agree with you mucker.

> jab118 - 30 Oct'10 - 15:22 - 4818 of 4825

How's sheriff?

[the disciple] 30/10/2010 19:14

Who would take advice from a name on a BB especially one who can't even remember wich name he's posting under ,isn't that right Sheriff.

[ludlowe] 30/10/2010 17:11

jab118 - 30 Oct'10 - 15:22 - 4818 of 4821

Berkeley and Bovis SAFE

Barratt and Persimmon-good chance of Companies going bankrupt within two years

Taylor Wimpey-probability of default very high

===

I don't hold any builders only banks

You've posted some sh'te in the past matey in an attempt to look smart, funny, whatever, forking out £5 p/m for a bluey to stop racq banning you, this time you look a right tw@t .fact

[wolterix] 30/10/2010 16:47

do you mean all IOO ?

[jab118] 30/10/2010 16:28

racg, it does not do you any justice to take your anger out on me, with your bullish stance on TW & Barratt. However, I have called this share 100% correct in the last 18months and made plenty of being bearish when all the experts contradicted my opinion, now now dear boy.. cut your loses and get out, or your painful financial position will only get worse, all IMO of course...;-)

[jab118] 30/10/2010 15:22

Just checked the rest of the UK Housebuilders and based on their last set of accounts,the model says-

Berkeley and Bovis SAFE

Barratt and Persimmon-good chance of Companies going bankrupt within two years

Taylor Wimpey-probability of default very high

DYOR

regards
jab

[libertine] 30/10/2010 10:42

From FT

Uncertainty hangs over UK housebuilders
By Neil Hume
Published: October 29 2010 19:53 | Last updated: October 29 2010 19:53

Housebuilders do not have a lot going for them at the moment. Public-sector job losses, fiscal tightening, problems getting mortgages and deteriorating consumer confidence are just some of the headwinds.

Hardly a day goes by without more bearish data. If it's not a housebuilder or a trade federation warning that the crucial autumn selling period has not delivered the expected pick-up in homes sales, it's news that mortgage lending remains in the doldrums.

Indeed, the Bank of England revealed on Friday that mortgage approvals had fallen to a seven-month low of 47,474 in September. To put that figure in perspective, economists consider an approval level of 70,000-80,000 as consistent with stable home prices.

But what does all that mean for quoted housebuilders such as Bovis Homes and Persimmon? Obviously, it is not good news that the market is slowing (or, as some analysts claim, has ground to halt). However, this should not come as a surprise to anyone given the media fixation with house prices. Moreover, given recent share price weakness, isn't a lot of the bad news in the price?

The UK housebuilding sector has fallen about 14 per cent in the past month, underperforming the wider market by 17 percentage points. Shares in Taylor Wimpey and Barratt Developments are trading close to 12-month lows, having lost a fifth of their market value in the past month.

Deutsche Bank reckons the housebuilding sector now trades on a little under 0.5 times its forecast of tangible net asset value for 2011. This is the lowest point this year and according to Deutsche shows that share prices are already discounting a double dip in home prices – or another fall of greater than 15 per cent year-on-year.

As such, the bank thinks the sector is cheap and has advised clients to take advantage of recent share price weakness to build positions. Deutsche also believes that industry data could turn positive at the start of next year thanks to easy comparatives and a less nervous consumer.

That view is echoed by Simon Brown of Matrix. He thinks data could pick up during the spring selling season and reckons increasing rental costs and the realisation that government spending cuts are to be phased in should tempt buyers back in the market.

But let's take a more pessimistic view for a moment and see how valuations stack up. Alastair Stewart, analyst at Investec Securities, believes there is a serious risk of a double dip in house prices and land values. As such he has slashed his target prices for housebuilding stocks to reflect that risk.

Given the dismal backdrop, Mr Stewart thinks housebuilders should trade at a 30 per cent discount to his estimate of their net asset value. This involves substituting companies' audited land values, which he says are based on flawed accounting assumptions, and replacing them with what he thinks are the real average theoretical cost of land. In every case this is lower than the reported level.

What's interesting from this exercise is that only Taylor Wimpey and Bellway are trading below Mr Stewart's target prices. The rest are above and some, such as Persimmon, considerably so. Under this scenario housebuilders are not cheap, although one can perhaps take comfort from the fact that share prices are heading towards these more bearish targets.

Equally one can take comfort from the fact that there remains a fundamental undersupply of houses in the UK. Mr Brown expects a new build rate of 125,000 units, at best, over the next three years, which he notes is below the annual household formation rate of 220,000.

But, unless there is some focus on these longer-term structural issues, the housebuilding sector seems very unlikely to reverse its performance against the wider market. As long as the outlook remains uncertain, investor focus will remain on mortgage availability data, house price surveys and how well the economy holds up as the government's austerity programme kicks in. As long as it does, housebuilders will struggle.

[libertine] 30/10/2010 10:21

"Friday on My Mind" is a 1966 song by Australian rock group The Easybeats. Written by band members George Young and Harry Vanda

[ludlowe] 29/10/2010 20:48

upp .. excellent track!