Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[binladin] 29/10/2010 12:31

could go bust and noone to stop it...
its in the bigger boys interest............

[gekkoizback] 29/10/2010 12:28

Boys in Armani shades are selling into any strength, best join'em guys'n gals.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 29/10/2010 11:36

Actually they don't, there are no P&L covenants, as it's such a moveable figure, hence they're cashflow and asset based. Have a read of the covenants:



Choose the 2010 half year results presentation (right hand side), page 37

Operating cashflow - covenant £139m, actual £563m
Tangible net assets - covenant £497m, actual £1,577m
Asset leverage - covenant 80%, actual 23%.

They're a million miles from breaching any of them, or the future ones, also on page 37.

[slytherin] 29/10/2010 10:56

The issue is not about lack of cash to service debt, or indeed lack of land or ability to buy land, it's short term profitability covenants in a dead market. The company is sound as such, but the P&L covenants give the banks the opportunity to plunder ownership from shareholders. I'm out for now, can't see any support until 20p reached, but will watch closely for stabilisation and the great longer-term potential that still exists.

[ludlowe] 29/10/2010 10:31

surprised nobody commented on that 4.5m buy at 22.5 ,

[spennysimmo] 29/10/2010 10:03

Robbie, nobody knows that yet, except the powers to be.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 29/10/2010 09:59

Remember also that the £1.5bn net asset figure is net of a £0.4bn+ provision for the pension deficit and that there are no intangibles in it - after all the write-downs and the kitchen sinking, it is as clean a number as any business has reported.

At the last half year, Redfern said, re the refinancing:

"Whilst the Group's current debt facilities do not expire until July 2012, an
earlier refinancing is preferable to provide additional operational flexibility for the business. We have had good early discussions with our main banking group and expect to widen the discussions to other lender groups in the coming months."

Let's hope they are sufficiently wide, and that there is no banking cartel...

[robbie paul] 29/10/2010 09:55

spenny won't be any info on refinancing though, when is refinancing expected to be completed, early next year?

[spennysimmo] 29/10/2010 09:54

Interim Statement WILL be early Nov.

[robbie paul] 29/10/2010 09:52

Buy the fear then or run for the hills. TW the more info that comes out looks to be the weakest in the sector,..a basket case? Open season for shorts in this sector!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 29/10/2010 09:50

A business with a debt total of £0.6bn, and a net tangible asset value of £1.5bn (net tangible assets 47p per share, 3.2bn shares) therefore a gross value pre debt of £2.2bn, and 'the banks' are seeking debt for equity?!

What planet are these bankers on? A perfectly solid business, easily meeting its covenants and interest payments through operating cashflow, with the flexibility to dispose of assets should the need arise - why on earth would a bank not renew its loans to it on a normal commercial basis? Other than just straight theft, which to be consistent they would then have to apply to all corporate lending? Do we have no banking codes of practice, or legal system in this country? Are they to be allowed to just take a business from shareholders whenever they wish?

I can only say that should it come to pass, it will kill the UK economy stone dead, permanently - no business would ever seek a corporate loan again.

Bizarre.

[shaws37] 29/10/2010 09:30

Emphasis on the word "may" and "perhaps" so they don't know any more than us.

They didn't even mention the American arm which they could sell off.

One thing i do agree with is their suggestion Redfern should be sacked.

[defcon4] 29/10/2010 09:11

jeez shaws,holy cow that makes grim reading,d4e/rights issue. TW. stuck between a rock and a hard place. "Both analysts agree that a further debt-for-equity swap with the lenders may be needed, and perhaps even a rights issue." You can well imagine pi's won't be offered the same terms as the big boys if further funding is needed. I guess we must pray house prices don't drop but i shan't be holding my breath on that one.

[shaws37] 29/10/2010 08:56

With the exception of Steve Morgan's boardroom coup at Redrow, the bosses who were in place when the market froze in spring 2008 are all still behind their desks.

They won't be sitting comfortably, given the battering the industry took in last week's spending review and the miserable autumn selling season.

All this must provide an awkward backdrop to the early stages of refinancing talks at Taylor Wimpey. Only 18 months ago, the housebuilder completed a financial deal so lengthy and complicated that one banker who worked on it compared it to Tolstoy's War and Peace. If you had bought £100 worth of shares in the days after the deal was signed, hoping that the only way was up, they would now be worth about £50.

Taylor Wimpey's land spend in cash is capped at 10% of its net asset value. If further writedowns occur, its ability to buy land will plummet, hence the second refinancing.

The lenders are calling the shots. One banker close to the process said last week: "If you think the company was taken to the cleaners last time, wait for this time."

Analysts are divided over whether this second deal is riskier than the last one. Kevin Cammack at Cenkos Securities thinks not, mainly because the company is refinancing £600m-plus, rather than £1.9bn.

But Robin Hardy at KBC Peel Hunt believes bondholders, who form the largest group of the lenders, could play hardball by asking for their money back. He added that getting banks to buy out bondholder debt could be difficult because the banks were "no longer on the hook" with debt as they were when they made the first deal.

Both analysts agree that a further debt-for-equity swap with the lenders may be needed, and perhaps even a rights issue. It makes you wonder how much more Taylor Wimpey's upbeat boss Pete Redfern can take with a smile on his face.

[gcom2] 29/10/2010 08:07

I dont know anyone remotely worried about any of the cuts, you just get on with it,don't you?

Except the BBC and telegraph,completely hysterical.

[shaws37] 28/10/2010 21:50

Gap from April 2009 filled without a doubt now. Still have a gap to fill at 41p from this year.

[jibba_jabba] 28/10/2010 18:36

After the recent announcement of cutbacks in the UK, we have seen
a surge of enquiries from people looking to relocate. (Spain)

[sir ramsey] 28/10/2010 18:34

Mucker Smurf, good luck sir

;')

[jibba_jabba] 28/10/2010 18:25

Smurf they may go lower, if they do i will use the sb account, be happy with £50/£25pp long...

UK mortgage approvals tomorrow they reckon are up?
US gdp tomorrow

Next week US voting and QE2...

I will update the scrolling bar tomorrow..

[smurfy2001] 28/10/2010 17:13

I missed my buy today, hope you're right JJ.

[jibba_jabba] 28/10/2010 16:43

Glad i stuck to my plan, 23p gap has now closed and i am now buying.. or should i say topping up.. the shorts i think have moved on as the short interest has been low.. the bots did there job today..

[gcom2] 28/10/2010 16:34

I'll 'ave a few if they are free.
Get with the real world pal.

[careful] 28/10/2010 15:56

i am tempted to add.
but US housing, Spanish housing and uk housing look to be dead, and will remain so for a long time.
some reckon uk house prices may fall significantly.

Once confidence is shattered, these minor adjustments we have witnessed so could turn into a rout.
So many houses are of terrible quality. Run down, drab, poor districts.
They may become virtually worthless.
(see that house in Detriot...it went for $1.)