Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sikhthetech] 20/5/2024 14:26

From PSN BB re: Rightmove

"Nonetheless, the market remains price-sensitive with average asking prices just 0.6% higher than a year ago. Larger properties led the price growth"


Says it all.

Average up only 0.6%, tiny amount, led by larger properties.
What about the average properties? Or the smaller properties, flats etc?. They would be below average and therefore prices falling.

0.6% means in real terms property prices are still falling.

The housing market future is still very uncertain.

[sikhthetech] 20/5/2024 14:15

Jugears,

My friend bought via an Estate Agent. Put in an offer and it was accepted, no extra negotiation needed.
He bought the property around 20% below the price it was sold at in 2007.


You're not realistic, others are saying it as it is. More and more are in mortgage debt and cost of living is still biting.

That's the reality.

My posts have been consistent. I'm using the research and info I've used for years, which has been proven right.

The same which I used when I predicted "I wouldn't buy HBs" and "Trade hyped sectors" etc. Where you and other rampers were stating that the housing markets is busiest ever and booming, when it clearly wasn't.

[danvandan] 20/5/2024 13:21

Again, not interested in your beliefs or what you claim you will do. The facts are what will eventually move the share price here. TW is selling far fewer houses and has cut back on building them as a result of the smaller market volume. Fewer sales mean lower earnings. EPS at H1 last yr dropped from 9p to 5p. If it has fallen again from 5p to 3p, there will likely be a big market reaction, made even bigger by the current misplaced optimism.

[jugears] 20/5/2024 12:58

selling more than last year, you can't sell more unless you build them! & there are only a handful of large hb's in this country that build private housing, Tw, Psn, Bdev,Crst,RDW,BKG & a few smaller ones , these build most of the new uk houses, plus the odd smaller regional builders.
TBF, if I can buy another 500k below a pound I will be very happy, likewise if they go to £3 I will still be happy, to many people just don't understand the future impact of building fewer houses now, they're to obsessed with short term rates & build volumes, look outside the box's! I am 100% sure that Tw will be one of my best performing stocks over the Next 5 years, assuming it doesn't get taken over!!!!

[sunshine today] 20/5/2024 12:48

Not only that they brag in the annual report how they are moving towards even cheaper materials to construct their new homes.

However those looking for profits to increase can forget it. !!

REASON

It will be near impossible to step up production, suppliers cant wait to lift prices and tens of thousands have left the industry for good.

[danvandan] 20/5/2024 11:58

jugears, your first sentence is wrong and this is why earnings are falling. TW is not selling more houses. It is selling a massively smaller number of houses. It is also building far fewer houses because management recognises that future sales will be smaller. Fewer sales mean lower earnings. Basic arithmetic.

As for what you personally have done or are doing and your beliefs, that is irrelevant. You, as an individual, are not 'the market'. Incidentally, there are many house-builders, large and small. Plenty of competition on pricing.

[jugears] 20/5/2024 11:48

DVD, why when they are selling more houses?
I've never shorted a share in fifty years holding long term has worked exceptionally well for me, I'm not worried about short term unless it means I can add 500k shares cheaply, long term fundamentals far out way the short, the uk has a huge shortage of homes that will not be fulfilled in my lifetime, land is in short supply,there will allways be peaks & trough in housing but I suspect we will see property increase in value by at least 50% in the next 10 years, now is a very good time to be in houses builders IMEO, if I get a chance I would very happily double my investment here, even less competition in the private housing sector & millions of new homes needed & only a handful of builders large enough to build them & that is never going to change in my lifetime & it has already been proven that off site building doesn't work & doesn't pay in this country, what is not to like here?

[danvandan] 20/5/2024 11:46

We are looking at a genuine break-out with upwards momentum. The shock of the figures in black and white in six weeks time could create a massive reverse. The market is clearly not expecting it. Vistry's announcement last week may be part of the reason that the market is being wrong-footed. In terms of short potential, this feels like an intriguing opportunity.

My target here is sub £1.

[danvandan] 20/5/2024 11:43

The shareprice continues upwards, bouyed by optimism about a rate cut and the rising tide of the undervalued ftse index. This represents a big short opportunity here, though the timing of it, as always, is hard to predict. H1 results are due on 31st July. We will then have in black and white TW's earnings. Last yr these showed a dramatic fall in earnings, almost halving the previous year's. EPS dropped from 9p to 5p. This year, against even those weak comparatives, I think we will see another big drop.

However, TW will frame the results announcement in terms of an optimistic future and say that customer enquiries are rising, and throw in whatever positive indicators it can find. None of that will alter the fact that earnings continue on a downward trajectory. The key issue for shareholders will be the return on the shares. TW will reduce the payout. At some point the market will decide that the facts are more important than the optimistic predictions. Whether 31st July will be the moment when the market realises that it's being duped, is unfathomable at this point. But irrational exuberance doesn't last forever. We shall see a change in sentiment here, sooner or later.

Shorts are increasing on TW peers (Crest and Barratt in particular) - the hedge funds see a sector-wide fall coming.
I have a short here but am keeping it small for the moment, ready for the pile-on when the market turns.

[danvandan] 20/5/2024 11:31

We are looking at a genuine break-out with upwards momentum. The shock of the figures in black and white in six weeks time could create a massive reverse. The market is clearly not expecting it. Vistry's announcement last week may be part of the reason that the market is being wrong-footed. In terms of short potential, this feels like an intriguing opportunity.

[danvandan] 20/5/2024 11:15

The shareprice continues upwards, bouyed by optimism about a rate cut and the rising tide of the undervalued ftse index. This represents a big short opportunity here, though the timing of it, as always, is hard to predict. H1 results are due on 31st July. We will then have in black and white TW's earnings. Last yr these showed a dramatic fall in earnings, almost halving the previous year's. EPS dropped from 9p to 5p. This year, against even those weak comparatives, I think we will see another big drop.

However, TW will frame the results announcement in terms of an optimistic future and say that customer enquiries are rising, and throw in whatever positive indicators it can find. None of that will alter the fact that earnings continue on a downward trajectory. The key issue for shareholders will be the return on the shares. TW will reduce the payout. At some point the market will decide that the facts are more important than the optimistic predictions. Whether 31st July will be the moment when the market realises that it's being duped, is unfathomable at this point. But irrational exuberance doesn't last forever. We shall see a change in sentiment here, sooner or later.

Shorts are increasing on TW peers (Crest and Barratt in particular) - the hedge funds see a sector-wide fall coming.
I have a short here but am keeping it small for the moment, ready for the pile-on when the market turns.

[craftyale] 20/5/2024 10:59

150 and more to come

[baracuda2] 20/5/2024 08:46

It's certainly trying though.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/5/2024 08:38

150 pence milestone done.. :o)

[sunshine today] 20/5/2024 00:36

“very very few properties ever loose money.”


“The last time there was a sustained decline in the house price-earnings multiple was the second half of the 19th century. Average house prices fell for more than 50 years thanks to substantial building of houses, many of which were smaller than existed before. At the same time earnings rose.”


History has a great habit of repeating itself.

[kreature] 20/5/2024 00:00

Oh….Repossessions jump 28%.

[kreature] 19/5/2024 23:10

“ very very few properties ever loose money.”

Sounds like this guy is braced for negative equity in the UK ? :


And how’s property value doing around the world at the moment ? eg Porto Alegre, and other more obvious places ?

[jugears] 19/5/2024 21:52

Sickly, I suspect your friend bought a house that was either derelict or from a Reit just like the one you showed me??? I would say any like for like houses will have substantially increased In value since 2007, most of my houses have at least doubled since then.
I totally disagree property long term is 99.99999999% likely to go up in value, very very few properties ever loose money.

[spawny100] 19/5/2024 20:14

Bought a property for less than it was worth in 2007? Frankly I find that very hard to believe and, without further evidence, I'll file it under "highly improbable".

[sikhthetech] 19/5/2024 20:08

Jugears,

You changes your mind every day. One day it was everything is busiest ever, Execs have told you that they are busy, yet HBs, themselves have stated they have reduced number of builds. One day it was £3 by Sept 2021 then again, you changed your target to 'investing for the long term'.

You have no idea of reality. Huge debt, cost of living crisis.

One of my friends just bought a property for less than it was in 2007. Property is not always 1 way, as you claim.

[kreature] 17/5/2024 20:30

Well I’m a firm buyer here sub 6p