Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 20/5/2024 11:46

We are looking at a genuine break-out with upwards momentum. The shock of the figures in black and white in six weeks time could create a massive reverse. The market is clearly not expecting it. Vistry's announcement last week may be part of the reason that the market is being wrong-footed. In terms of short potential, this feels like an intriguing opportunity.

My target here is sub £1.

[danvandan] 20/5/2024 11:43

The shareprice continues upwards, bouyed by optimism about a rate cut and the rising tide of the undervalued ftse index. This represents a big short opportunity here, though the timing of it, as always, is hard to predict. H1 results are due on 31st July. We will then have in black and white TW's earnings. Last yr these showed a dramatic fall in earnings, almost halving the previous year's. EPS dropped from 9p to 5p. This year, against even those weak comparatives, I think we will see another big drop.

However, TW will frame the results announcement in terms of an optimistic future and say that customer enquiries are rising, and throw in whatever positive indicators it can find. None of that will alter the fact that earnings continue on a downward trajectory. The key issue for shareholders will be the return on the shares. TW will reduce the payout. At some point the market will decide that the facts are more important than the optimistic predictions. Whether 31st July will be the moment when the market realises that it's being duped, is unfathomable at this point. But irrational exuberance doesn't last forever. We shall see a change in sentiment here, sooner or later.

Shorts are increasing on TW peers (Crest and Barratt in particular) - the hedge funds see a sector-wide fall coming.
I have a short here but am keeping it small for the moment, ready for the pile-on when the market turns.

[danvandan] 20/5/2024 11:31

We are looking at a genuine break-out with upwards momentum. The shock of the figures in black and white in six weeks time could create a massive reverse. The market is clearly not expecting it. Vistry's announcement last week may be part of the reason that the market is being wrong-footed. In terms of short potential, this feels like an intriguing opportunity.

[danvandan] 20/5/2024 11:15

The shareprice continues upwards, bouyed by optimism about a rate cut and the rising tide of the undervalued ftse index. This represents a big short opportunity here, though the timing of it, as always, is hard to predict. H1 results are due on 31st July. We will then have in black and white TW's earnings. Last yr these showed a dramatic fall in earnings, almost halving the previous year's. EPS dropped from 9p to 5p. This year, against even those weak comparatives, I think we will see another big drop.

However, TW will frame the results announcement in terms of an optimistic future and say that customer enquiries are rising, and throw in whatever positive indicators it can find. None of that will alter the fact that earnings continue on a downward trajectory. The key issue for shareholders will be the return on the shares. TW will reduce the payout. At some point the market will decide that the facts are more important than the optimistic predictions. Whether 31st July will be the moment when the market realises that it's being duped, is unfathomable at this point. But irrational exuberance doesn't last forever. We shall see a change in sentiment here, sooner or later.

Shorts are increasing on TW peers (Crest and Barratt in particular) - the hedge funds see a sector-wide fall coming.
I have a short here but am keeping it small for the moment, ready for the pile-on when the market turns.

[craftyale] 20/5/2024 10:59

150 and more to come

[baracuda2] 20/5/2024 08:46

It's certainly trying though.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 20/5/2024 08:38

150 pence milestone done.. :o)

[sunshine today] 20/5/2024 00:36

“very very few properties ever loose money.”


“The last time there was a sustained decline in the house price-earnings multiple was the second half of the 19th century. Average house prices fell for more than 50 years thanks to substantial building of houses, many of which were smaller than existed before. At the same time earnings rose.”


History has a great habit of repeating itself.

[kreature] 20/5/2024 00:00

Oh….Repossessions jump 28%.

[kreature] 19/5/2024 23:10

“ very very few properties ever loose money.”

Sounds like this guy is braced for negative equity in the UK ? :


And how’s property value doing around the world at the moment ? eg Porto Alegre, and other more obvious places ?

[jugears] 19/5/2024 21:52

Sickly, I suspect your friend bought a house that was either derelict or from a Reit just like the one you showed me??? I would say any like for like houses will have substantially increased In value since 2007, most of my houses have at least doubled since then.
I totally disagree property long term is 99.99999999% likely to go up in value, very very few properties ever loose money.

[spawny100] 19/5/2024 20:14

Bought a property for less than it was worth in 2007? Frankly I find that very hard to believe and, without further evidence, I'll file it under "highly improbable".

[sikhthetech] 19/5/2024 20:08

Jugears,

You changes your mind every day. One day it was everything is busiest ever, Execs have told you that they are busy, yet HBs, themselves have stated they have reduced number of builds. One day it was £3 by Sept 2021 then again, you changed your target to 'investing for the long term'.

You have no idea of reality. Huge debt, cost of living crisis.

One of my friends just bought a property for less than it was in 2007. Property is not always 1 way, as you claim.

[kreature] 17/5/2024 20:30

Well I’m a firm buyer here sub 6p

[danvandan] 17/5/2024 18:46

pigsears, I am not asking about how well you did. 1992, interest rates 15%, taylor wimpey share price crashed to 38p. Evidently your memory is not very good.

You acknowledge that housing production is drastically reduced - that means fewer sales, that means lower profits, and that means lower dividends, and that means a lower share price. If that's your vague idea of what 'bobbing along' will be, I agree.

[jugears] 17/5/2024 18:19

Oh & energy price have tumbled & set to fall another 7% in June!

[jugears] 17/5/2024 18:18

Dicvandum,I remember very well when rates went to 15% thanks but still managed & I have said before that once people get used to higher rates they will drift back to the market as it appears they are doing,I'm a great believer in what will be will be, the boe need to be carefull not to leave rates to high to long or could face putting the UK into a deep recession, but at the moment things seem to be bobbing along nicely & that housing shortage is getting bigger by the day, happy days fo hb investors.
I think you will find that hb chose to cut production by a 3rd last january(all hb's) why increase production yet if you can sell for more in the future & how do you know if they could sell more if they choose not to build more, there doesn't seem to be any shortage of plots sold on sites & I haven't heard of any hb saying they struggled to sell any of the houses that they chose to build.

[kreature] 17/5/2024 17:15

Pensions getting cashed in early…last throw of dice?. Will prob take a position here next week. Well done all in getting the share price back to this ridiculous level.

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/almost-80-of-pension-savers-are-raiding-their-pots-early-pulling-out-47-000-on-average/ar-BB1mvbRt

[danvandan] 17/5/2024 17:08

Btw, about the 'huge housing crisis looming'. If a labour govt is elected in the autumn and decides to tackle housing, its response COULD be a massive affordable housing building program built by non-listed builders. How would THAT affect profits for TW and the rest?

All of your hopes for TW rest on a June rate cut and the market magically turning positive on that. Look around you. The facts are out there.
1. UK housing is the worst value amongst developed nations; smaller houses, poor quality houses for far too much money.
2. House-building volume is massively reduced because demand has evaporated.
3. Interest rates have returned to normality after an unprecedented decade at near zero rates.
4. The UK economy is close to recession, unemployment is slowly rising, discretionary spending is reduced.
5. Core pricing on basic necessities (food, housing and energy) is at record levels.

All of this points to lower house prices and because we have recently seen peak prices, volumes are likely to be much lower. Ultimately the house-builders are going to see much lower profits after many years of making big profits, bolstered by wrong-headed conservative govt 'help-to-buy' schemes. The good times for house builders have come to an end for the foreseeable. The reason is basic arithmetic.

[danvandan] 17/5/2024 16:53

If you really have 'been in the industry for 50 years' perhaps you should think back to when interest rates were 15% and how the build up to that was a constant, 'rates will be falling' and 'rates MUST be reduced' while rates continued inexorably higher.

How do you think the housing market will react if and when the BoE decides that a June rate cut is unwise and defers it again? Currently, a slight majority of analysts expect that to happen.

[danvandan] 17/5/2024 16:35

Shares here are primed for a drop - one-year high without the fundamentals to support it.