Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[cupra kid] 11/4/2024 18:09

BDEV will be BRED come the end of the year or first quarter of 2025. They want the Redrow land bank.

[proj] 11/4/2024 13:21

G'day all. Quite the battle at the 130p point atm.

BTW, anyone got any thoughts on the pro's and con's of TW's peers, such as BDEV, Persimmon, & Redrow?

[jugears] 10/4/2024 18:29

Lef that is why I vetted the company that bought me out very carefully, it took about 3 years for me to give in to thier offers, I suppose it can determine the outcome if you choose to sell or have to sell & although the reality is harsh once you have sold out & know longer connected to the company then its not your fault that it failed, sadly there are those that buy companies to milk them dry & others that passion comes before money, I had no aspirations when I started to be wealthy or to run a large company in the end I had 20 people on the shop floor operating 8 CNC machines that did the work of 80 blokes, property & land that I still own & half a transport company, people seemed to like what we did & what we offered & I just expanded as the work increased, I would be gutted if the company failed but I think that is very unlikely under the new owners, like wise I was working 16 hours a day 7 days a week & enjoyed every minute of it but I wouldn't want to now, very happily semi retired.

[proj] 10/4/2024 17:18

Good on you, lefrene. You've got integrity.

Btw, apologies all if I have taken this thread off on a tangent. Housing is a societal thing, but I hope you don't think I'm an old hippy!

[lefrene] 10/4/2024 17:12

Jugs, it's horses for courses, different types of businesses have different facets.

My workers knew that if they needed help to deal with a situation, I had the experience and knowledge to get them out of problems, and would do so at the drop of a hat. I went to lengths to make sure they had as much information as I could give them, and that if the client tried to bully them into doing something illegal, I would tell them to leave the job, I would still make sure they got a days pay.

I made a point of going incognito to my clients depots and doing a days work, just to see how the drivers/workers were treated. There were a number where having done a days work, I refused to let them have any more of my staff.

I don't miss it, I was working 16+hrs 7 days a week.

[jugears] 10/4/2024 16:58

proj, back in the day there were plenty of houses to buy, unfortunately the population has grown & we are now building less houses, I'm afraid there will always be those that can afford & those that can't & those that can't are getting further away from getting on the property ladder
Sikh, look at the number of homes being repossessed or people getting into mortgage difficulty they are lower than pre covid, & going back to my large village we are in a commuter belt you can get to Birmingham/Manchester/Derby/Leeds/Sheffield in under an about an hour, these are all high industry areas which invariably have staff that move about.

[jugears] 10/4/2024 16:46

Lef, I didn't read all of you post but one thing I always made sure of was that I new how every aspect of my company worked from sweeping the floor to delivery goods, meeting customers face to face & working on the shop floor & being able to use every machine & tool we had & every thing connected to the admin side of the business, Paye,accounts, health & safety, buying & estimating, I had several offers for my company & didn't have any plans to sell it but one company that I had worked with for many years made repeated offers it wasn't until I was 100% sure that my staff & customers would be looked after that I agreed to sell, having spent a year or so with the new company I'm glad to say I made the right decision, I though I would miss running that company but I don't in reality looking back it was totally bloody stressful!

[sikhthetech] 10/4/2024 16:43

Lefrene,

Absolutely,

There is huge debt held by govns, businesses and individuals, mostly during the times when interest rates were low and on the expectation that rates will fall soon.

When the reality hits, many will fail.

The fact some banks have already failed. They snowball but the snowball effect takes time to be felt.


Just look at the number of councils becoming technically bankrupt. That will result in some depts cutting back.
Hundreds or thousands of workers are likely to be made redundant.

[proj] 10/4/2024 16:39

Very good point, Jugears: shortage of housing stock is driving prices up even more.

My original point was that people with pretty decent jobs (teachers, nurses etc.) haven't a chance of owning....except for the bank of mum and dad (or is that dad and dad these days!)and/or crippling mortgages (if they can even get one).

Back in my day (in best Monty Python 4 Yorkshiremen sketch voice}, buying a home was the norm, not an anomaly

And if a lot of people don't have a stake in society, how are they likely to behave?

[lefrene] 10/4/2024 16:36

I'm expecting the USA at best to hold rates or indeed raise them again. @Friends of the FED have set up a special purpose company to buy up insolvent banks, and my guess is the FED wants to greatly condense the number of mid range banks in the USA, to make the industry easier to control, and perhaps impose new conditions on their clients.
Look out for the word 'tokenise' as your friendly helpful bank tokenises your account for your security! Tokenising is actually taking the clients assets onto the banks balance sheet, thus 'bailing in' the client, who will not realise until to late, that they no longer own assets, but instead have 'tokens' of entitlement to the things they once owned.

All those mortgaged properties thus become assets on the banks balance sheet! The sheeple won't understand the sleight of hand until they have a problem, and find that they don't actually own the equity in their mortgaged hutch. Interesting times are very close indeed.

[jugears] 10/4/2024 16:35

proj, my best friend owns estate agents shops across the midlands, he has been saying for 18 moths that are are to few houses coming to the market, I can see this from the midland regions that I look at, I think we are far from a uk housing housing market collapse, despite some people not being able to get on to the property ladder there is still a chronic shortage of homes & as most hb's have cut production since covid that shortfall is now probably bigger than at any other time, its just a waiting game IMEO.

[sikhthetech] 10/4/2024 16:35

Optomistic,

It looks like US Fed may have to keep interest rates higher for longer, or even increase them.


That will impact anything impacted by higher interest rates.

That together with huge debt held by govns, organisations and individuals is not good for housing market.

[jugears] 10/4/2024 16:27

proj, there aren't enough houses to go round so why worry about the 20-30's or even the 30-40's I have explained before how easy it would be to build affordable houses if the uk government really wanted to! the problem is that we have to many people that do earn enough to buy the houses that do come to the market& more if there were more to buy, thus putting houses even further out of the reach of the lower paid & I don't see higher interest rates have made a lot of difference.

[lefrene] 10/4/2024 16:25

Jugly you paint with too broad a brush. I built up an industrial staff agency. It was quite a learning curve. The one thing in my life I'm proud of, is that the 200 drivers I employed didn't have a single accident, and that's because I took them through my short training exercise, plus I knew exactly the sort of people I was looking for when recruiting.

The buyer wrecked it, because his ego was more important to him than taking the time to understand the day to day problems that artic drivers face. Once I heard the business was destroyed I got in touch with some of my former drivers, to find out what happened. The bloke didn't understand that civvy street is not the RAF, you don't order people about to try to hide your own incompetence. If you do, Class 1 drivers can swiftly find work elsewhere, and they did. Add in that the bloke took on a fancy office in Cheltenham, mistaking high turnover for high profit, even though I had spelt out to him not to be carried away by the illusion of wealth that a circa £100k a week turnover can create.

I was glad to be out of it, the industry didn't value a an accident free 100% reliable service (no client was ever let down, not once). Traffic managers frequently asked for inducements with vieled threats of not using your staff, I never gave into that, and got at least two depot managers sacked for corruption, which was satisfying. One was always chasing after bills, and the overall tax bill was over 60% of the turnover.

I suppose we all have our experiences.

As for TW it seems to be about the soundest of the big builders, with a strong balance sheet, but given the drying up of credit I expect their private house building to shrink noticeably, and that they will be looking for a lot more public work, such as housing associations. It's 1991 again.

[optomistic] 10/4/2024 16:25

All the builders took a dive a little earlier, any help with this please?

[proj] 10/4/2024 16:22

Hi Dan - firstly, thanks for the heads-up on why TW dropped sharply this afternoon. The labour numbers slipped my mind.

Yes, I can't believe Jugears is extrapolating the macro picture from a few house sales in his village. If there were a couple of foreclosures in his village, would he deduce that we were in the midst of a global housing market collapse?

In Jugears' defence, people are patently getting the money from somewhere (though of the 20 or so families that have moved into our street over the past 30 years or so, only a few were under 30 (by the look of them). But I agree with you, Dan, there is an almighty problem with credit coming.....even the money-printing presses must be running out of ink.

[danvandan] 10/4/2024 16:08

proj, you highlight the fundamental issue - property in the UK is hugely overvalued, caused in large part by flawed govt policy over many years, inflating the market with 'help-to-buy' schemes and ineffective attempts to stimulate home-building. We are due for some kind of correction imv, though whether it will be the sudden deflation of an asset bubble or a slow puncture remains to be seen.

Regarding TW specifically; trading update and AGM in 13 days' time (23rd of this month). It'll be interesting to see how the business is actually doing, outside of anyone's 'village'.

[proj] 10/4/2024 16:01

Jug Air - sure, there will always be outliers: people from rich families and others (as you rightly say) on a hefty wedge (investment bankers etc.). But I'm talking about the vast majority of people in their 20s & 30s who, despite having 'good jobs' don't have a prayer of owning a property. Why do you think the average age of FTBs has risen from late 20s to early 40s? I don't say this to talk TW or the housing sector down (both will be fine in the long run, imo). No, I say it because I genuinely worry about the fabric of our society, when young people (aside from the trustafarians and whizz kids) don't have a chance of owning their own bricks & mortar. Add to the mix all the student debt, and their chances look even bleaker. Our generations were very lucky in many ways, and I try to remind myself as regularly as I can.

[danvandan] 10/4/2024 15:56

For anyone wondering about the sudden 3% drop this afternoon, US labour market numbers today have apparently pushed the prospect of a rate cut further away. I think it might be worth keeping in mind that rates could actually go up.

Direction of travel for the TW shareprice continues downward. My target is 110p (apparently I'm not alone). Not disaster, just a fairly well-trodden path in this share's ups and downs.

[danvandan] 10/4/2024 15:51

@sikhthetech just now. Lol!

[sikhthetech] 10/4/2024 15:38

Jugears,

"2 houses have sold in my village to young people in their 20's"
"I can only assume they have well paid jobs?"

The 'my village' comment again.
Where is this village?


Can you tell us how much deposit they paid and where they got the money from? ;-)
You have a lot of homes for sale/sold in your village every month. Are you sure you don't live in a city? It's obviously a place where no one stays long.

[jugears] 10/4/2024 15:23

Pro, why can youngster in there 20's buy houses for 600k? oh because they obviously can,2 houses have sold in my village to young people in their 20's for that money I can only assume they have well paid jobs? The younger generation seem to have far more income these days than when my generation were young!

[jugears] 10/4/2024 15:19

Fortunately I sold my exceptionally well ran company to a like minded family company, I stayed on for a year to help the transition run smooth, the new company is going from strength to strength achieved a record year last year for turnover & profits & this year looks to be better, Lefty if you employed 250 people & sold out & only stayed for one month then it is no surprise whatsoever that the company failed, I would have stayed longer if I needed to.
Sick most properties I have seen at Auction are there for a reason, mostly in a ran down state or there because the owner is deceased or an investor has over stretch & needs a quick release of capital, not all properties sell quickly even in a housing boom & not all properties find buyers if the owners are asking unrealistic prices either, can you tell me why house prices are not falling & why there are still very low numbers of houses coming to the market?

Where has left come from I call lefrene Lefty for no particular reason, I call sikh Sickly because he makes us sick lol