Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[tlobs2] 20/3/2024 07:44

DanVanDan are you familiar with the term supply and demand? This is from industry specialists Rightmove a couple of days ago........


An increase in buyer demand and stronger house sales during March have combined to push the average UK home’s asking price up by a further £5,279 to almost £370,000, as the market picks up after a “muted 2023”.

According to the UK’s biggest property website, Rightmove, this month’s 1.5% price growth is notably higher than the historical March average of 1%, and is the biggest monthly increase for 10 months.

Rightmove said estate agents were reporting a significant increase in buyer demand this month as more people were “seeing a window of opportunity to buy”.


More people buying then at higher prices.

Oh and your cheap shot about Poles going home. FFS they are not the sort of people that buy TW houses and neither are the boat people arriving at Dover (aided by the Labour Party).

[craftyale] 20/3/2024 06:28

No short positions now shown for Taylor Wimpey. Qube further reduced on March 18. Can we keep this thread for pertinent info only? Trolls and idiots who engage with them on the other thread.

[danvandan] 20/3/2024 01:30

Btw, the UK birthrate is well documented at being well below the replacement rate and reached a new low last year. Immigration - which I'm sure everyone on here loves - is keeping numbers up, but barely, and as we saw with the Poles during Brexit, people with extended families abroad can quickly turnaround and go home. But first and foremost, let's see if I can call the shareprice right.

[danvandan] 20/3/2024 01:25

No need for the snide comment on the end fenners. Just because you don't like the facts, doesn't mean you have to be rude to the person posting them. As for 'doing the numbers' on population, you'll excuse me if I don't take the word of people who are 'desperately' defending a share price. There are better sources out there. Ultimately it's the shareprice that we're interested in here. I notice that you say nothing about the more obvious headwinds - interest rates remaining at 5-6%, and the fact that 'asking prices' are just that. Actual sale prices speak louder - let's see how they turn out in a few weeks from now. My guess is that we are seeing an asset bubble that will deflate, hopefully slow enough that it doesn't cause too much pain.

[fenners66] 20/3/2024 00:36

Population growth has not stopped - its accelerated.
Did the numbers on here some while back
add in the migration and its approaching 1m a year.

You must be desperate (or trolling) to come up with that line.

[danvandan] 19/3/2024 19:39

A false dawn I reckon jugears. Advertised prices are not selling prices. None of the structural issues have changed. Interest rates are higher than they were and are unlikely to come down. 5-6% is the old normal. Retail businesses continue to fail (read the news on any day) because consumers have less money. Tax levels are at record levels. (more drain on consumers).

Population growth has practically stopped. UK birthrate is below replacement. Immigration is keeping it about static. We have plenty of houses. Good article here on housing in today's Guardian:

I get it that you don't want to sell or even need to sell, but you're not the only person here. Plenty of other people are interested in TW's prospects and deserve views that differ from the die hard fans.

[kreature] 19/3/2024 15:20

Asking prices rise yes. That’s very different to the actual sold prices.

[jugears] 19/3/2024 14:57

Property market continues to experience problems?????, but house prices are continuing to rise & know hb has reported any difficulty selling any of the properties they said they would build over the last 12 months & still less older houses coming to the market, interest rates are due to start falling, so you are not trying to tell us that this WONT bring more buyers to the market???? I can't see any downside here but I can see dividends rising in the future & a return to special dividends, but you can never predict the markets, these days the share price rarely has anything to do with a companies performance but I am always happy to buy more, all investments I make are long term so cycles don't effect me.

[sikhthetech] 19/3/2024 13:38

Sector newsflow on ftse 100 companies continuing as predicted.




sikhthetech - 11 Jan 2024 - 14:12:30 - 5172 of 5406 PERSIMMON PLC - THE CHARTS
TW reported TU this morning.

As expected, the TU shows property market continues to experience problems.

The risk is to the downside.

[jugears] 19/3/2024 13:31

Mean while TLY continue to plunge & RR continue to climb!

[sikhthetech] 19/3/2024 12:46

As expected, another bad TU from another HB.

The sector newsflow has been as expected.

HBs have been paying dividends, resulting in cash dwindling, whilst demand is subdued. That is not a good policy.

If there's huge demand in the UK for property then why are they building less?

HBs say they are building less because of planning constraints. They didn't have problems with planning when demand was high.



Reservations still low.

The CMA investigation into HBs shows what the current state of housebuilding is.



Crest TU:

"Build activity in the sector continued to operate at a lower level"


Pre 2019 completed sites

Since the publication of the FY23 results, the Group has become aware of certain build defects predominantly on four sites that were completed prior to 2019 when the Group closed its Regeneration and London divisions. These sites will require remediation over the next three years at an estimated cost of up to £15m. As a result, the Board has decided to appoint third party consultants to provide greater assurance on the adequacy of current provisions around these and other sites completed prior to 2019. A further update will be provided at the Group's interim results in June.

Outlook

The Group continues to focus on optimising value and expects FY24 completions to be in the range of 1,800 to 2,000 homes, with completions weighted approximately 35/65% in favour of the second half of the year, reflecting the opening order book and the low level of reservations in the first two months of the financial year.

[jugears] 19/3/2024 08:22

Cafty, Definitely an increase in foot fall even my friend has said that,but still very few house coming to the market.

[fenners66] 18/3/2024 20:50

Another nail in the trolls coffin of a house price crash again this year.
6 years or so and no crash
If only it was as simple as proving the troll wrong for 6 consecutive years and they would stop.
But of course they are not here for that point of view, they are here to engage anyone in an argument...

[cowie19] 18/3/2024 19:30

I think one needs to take in the above post with a severe pinch of salt.

[craftyale] 18/3/2024 06:25

An increase in buyer demand and stronger house sales during March have combined to push the average UK home's asking price up by a further £5,279 to almost £370,000, as the market picks up after a "muted 2023".According to the UK's biggest property website, Rightmove, this month's 1.5% price growth is notably higher than the historical March average of 1%, and is the biggest monthly increase for 10 months.Rightmove said estate agents were reporting a significant increase in buyer demand this month as more people were "seeing a window of opportunity to buy".

[kreature] 17/3/2024 21:21

If it’s good-debt, I guess that’s good. Eg a buy to let mortgage that is well covered by a tenant. How many regret not taking on good-debt when rates were near zero ?

Prob all end in disaster anyway, so they can bring in the CBDC digital currency, apparently all ready and waiting

[sikhthetech] 17/3/2024 19:39

There is huge debt crisis, govn, business and individuals.

There are concerns about the level of debt held by some.

The debt situation snowballs, as they will spend less elsewhere. Any small change can impact those in debt significantly.

The govn can't afford to help as much as they would like to. The historical spending/ QE, is coming back to bite.

[lefrene] 16/3/2024 14:01

I believe back in the 50's there were high capital gains tax on profits from planning gain. Those running things back then understood that the value to an economy is had from actually building things, and not from expropriating money from home buyers for a patch of dirt.

Thus more money left over from wages for home buyers to buy home produced goods and services. It started to go wrong in 1974 when Heath, to rescue his banking mates who had messed up in South America, removed the very sensible property borrowing regulations. It's been an ugly mess ever since, and without doubt significantly driven up the costs of welfare.

[rwlly1] 16/3/2024 13:49

JUG I do realise that land prices with planing permission is causing the problem, but it is a viciose circle The higher that house prices go the more profit for builders To bid price higher.

[jugears] 16/3/2024 13:12

Rwlly I did until recently work 7 days a week, only because I like to keep my eye on the ball, now I don't need to, but still have enough to do to make me want to get up at 6 every day, How do you build houses cheap? back in the 50's land with planing wasn't that much more than land without, probably because it was plentiful, now land with planing permission is about 50 times more expensive than land without, I have known sites where is cost 50k a plot just to put utilities on, Red tape & health & safety & method statements have increased build cost substantially, not to mention labour & material costs, there will never be affordable houses because they are always unaffordable to some people.

[omg48] 16/3/2024 08:32

What a depressing thread this is 😩. Should call it the troll feeder thread. Why anyone engages with them baffles me.

[kreature] 15/3/2024 20:39

“what has gone wrong?”

Didn’t banks create outrageous affordability via interest only mortgages ? Thus enabling HBs to sell overpriced houses ?

[rwlly1] 15/3/2024 20:17

tblob3 I allways start at 4.30 in a morning 365 days a year I do tend to take a brake ocasionaly if that is all right with you. Jug Builders could build affordable houses that people wanted to live in, in the fifties and sixties, what has gone wrong? Politics wise I am center right

[tlobs2] 15/3/2024 15:53

rwilly for a farmer you're a bit of a lazy get to be fair. Get out there and start to improve your efficiency.

[kreature] 15/3/2024 13:32

People want their own nice homes. So won’t be funny when they realise a management company is in control of it. Pop up the fees and down goes the value of the home . Imo