Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[danvandan] 08/3/2024 14:42

jugears, that response is rude, aggressive and badly written and suggests a deep-seated insecurity. Possibly you are a weak and ineffectual keyboard warrior type. I didn't read past your opening sentence, since you're obviously an idiot.

Icky, thanks for the history note. I think you're telling me that there's a higher degree of share loyalty with TW. Ok. That does seem to be what I'm seeing. I will keep an eye on the cash reserve. Six month chart looks ready for a fall though. Not a problem for anyone 'free-rolling' here from divis that have more than covered share costs. I'm just looking at the institutional ownership; only 25% of the total shares. A mixed picture; some have almost sold out, others have recently bought in.

[lefrene] 08/3/2024 14:38

I spoke to a couple of blokes I know who are still in the building game as plumbers and plasterers, (Buckinghamshire). New builds for them has dropped right off, houses only being built to order with secured finance. They're keeping busy though with re-furbs, so not all gloom. Both did quite well with their own small building firms from 99 to 2008, and then decided to get out of the game, too stressful. Now nearing retirement they're happy to do work for others so long as they see the money first!

[kreature] 08/3/2024 14:28

Meanwhile, the share price drifts with nothing to look forward to. No stamp duty holiday, no help to buy scheme, and low fixed rates ending. GL with that

[1carus] 08/3/2024 12:03

Jug, I think things have changed a lot historically for TW. and the market. the restructuring of TW. - for the better - but also how houses are bought. In the late 80's/ early 90's with all of the negative equity that happened the market forces was quite different. NE was caused by a repaid increase in the market due the government removing Mortgage tax relief. I was trying to buy my first house at the time and the market just accelerated away. Fortunately I was able to buy in the crash that followed. But the NE was caused by a mad buying frenzy. People would stand in queues to view houses when it all took off.
We don't have that massive ramp in prices over such a short term going on atm.
Also, much more of the purchases were mortgaged based with much higher LTV's. With Maggie's policy through the 70's on 80's of selling council properties, many families have now been the recipients of house inheritance that had not happened before. Cala is billed as a premium builder up here in Scotland, I think close to half of their houses are bought cash. As you say, demand is outstripping availability and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future it seems. TW will just ramp production up and down accordingly.

[1carus] 08/3/2024 11:29

DVD way back after TW. recovered from nearly going under, the board set out a plan to reward it's shareholders. Afterall that is why we are here. The aim was to pay a good dividend, specials where finances would allow and effectively to have a war chest to keep the dividends similar throughout the cyclical nature of the business. Admittedly, a prolonged downturn could affect that plan, but I think they assumed an 18-24 month event. To that end they seem to have managed things fairly well. Depending on the part of the cycle, and ignoring covid and short peaks in the 2.20's the price seems to oscillate between 1.20 and 1.80 for the most part. I expect the long term holders here like myself have a buy in of £1 or less, and since around 2014 have had 100% of the original investment back in dividends. The divi seems to be sustainable and attractive even at todays values and has delivered for over a decade consistently. We don't have a crystal ball to see what will happen in the future, but that is the same with any investment. I guess the question comes down to whether you think the board is doing a good job or not.

[1carus] 08/3/2024 11:03

I bought an estate home back in 2002, there was land associated with the scheme where there was an up front 'factor' payment on the purchase for a management company to take care of the grass cutting etc. It was actually quite reasonable, however, after about 5 years the company bailed out and stopped the service... the deal was too good to be true. Previous estate home to that, the council adopted the community land so there was no such problem. Sounds like we now have the case where new estate purchasers not only pay the hidden up front tax that the builders pay to the councils, but then have to pay maintenance charges to a company on something that the council should be adopting having taken a serious amount of cash up front. I am sure all of this is discussed with new buyers but I bet it is not fully disclosed. Not sure what solicitors are doing for the money these days if all of these charges are not spelt out to their clients, and it should be in writing. That said, if it is explained and you go ahead with a purchase you would have only yourself to blame.

[kreature] 08/3/2024 10:21

Not sure who Joseph is, but sounds like a good bloke. What I question is the description of ‘freehold̵7; for estate houses that are anything but free from hold. Thus negative equity imo more of a risk given management charges are usually if not always unregulated and uncapped

[danvandan] 08/3/2024 09:58

Joseph, strangely, we appear to be on the same side of the argument here. If you can stay as you are and avoid spamming this board, I will not have to tackle you - perhaps we can be civil. No need to reply. Just letting you know. I would like to see the responses from the people here who believe in TW. I'm not expecting much from them - so far they appear to be avoiding the core issues and instead talk about France and Spain and other irrelevancies.

[kreature] 08/3/2024 09:41

Yep, affordability issues with 1m households coming off low rates this year. No help from budget, no help from BOE, and freeholds deeds apparently not worth the paper they are written on due to onerous covenants and uncapped estate management charges in deeds ?

[danvandan] 08/3/2024 09:16

One more thing. Interest rates at almost zero percent was one of the big drivers of house prices. People could afford big loans. Now we have 5, 6, 7% deals and mortgages are more expensive to service. So house prices have to come down, or wages (ie inflation) have to go up, and ideally both. How much and for how long is the difficult part to determine. I am hearing the sound of denial from everyone in the property sector. Soon it might be anger if things don't turn quickly. Then it will be negotiation and prices will fall to a sustainable level. And then there will be profound sadness, followed by acceptance by people who find themselves saddled with negative equity for many years.

Some people think the zero percent days will return. History suggests otherwise. The two decades that we've lived through of ultra low rates is an historical anomaly. 5 or 6% is more usual. In the 1970s rates touched 15%. It seems possible, and even likely, that 5-6% is a range that everyone will be comfortable with, putting a brake on debt, rewarding savers. Time will tell. Speaking of time...

Long-Term Averages For UK Interest Rates:
Over the last 50 years, the average is around 9.1%
Over the last 100 years, the average is around 8.3%
Since 1694 the average is around 5.9%

[danvandan] 08/3/2024 09:06

I see that TW has increased the divi despite the drop in profits. I'm taking this as a sign of confidence from management that the profits will return, but increasing payouts against declining profits is not a sustainable strategy. Sooner or later, the money runs out. So I suppose TW is saying to shareholders, here's some extra money so don't desert the shares. And that means that TW needs a strong recovery in profits soon. Elsewhere, retail businesses are on their knees - an immediate sign that consumers and potential homebuyers are feeling financial pain. The NI cut will help a little, but can anyone honestly tell me that against that background, housing isn't an asset bubble waiting to burst?

[danvandan] 08/3/2024 08:59

Pretty amazing how this share price has held up despite a 40% fall in profits. I don't know about a housing crash, but those avg house prices are way below the pace of inflation on building materials, so profits don't look like they will match historical returns. Also, genuinely it's not much of a recovery is it? Not even a dead cat bounce. Is there genuinely a bull case here for the shares?

[fenners66] 08/3/2024 07:52

Housing market does not need any budget help

"House prices rose for fifth consecutive month says Halifax

Average house prices rose by 0.4% in February, the fifth monthly rise in a row
Property prices are up 1.7% year-on-year and only slightly down on 2022 peak"

But some of us on here have known for a long time that was going to happen.

Come on troll give us your 40% housing crash prediction for this year ... again !

[kreature] 07/3/2024 17:02

“ Unless you are paying cash then you are paying interest for the rest of your life ”

Huh? Would appreciate an explanation on that one…

Oh ok just some ambiguity I think

[1carus] 07/3/2024 16:44

The industry has grown up it seems. Biggest issue for buyers of new builds is the premium that they pay for the house. Not to the house builder but the part that covers the community costs imposed the councils. The builders write the cheque, but the house buyers pay for it, and it is a substantial stealth tax. It's all factored in and it is just accepted in the total cost.

[death by donut] 07/3/2024 14:28

Exactly what there doing on one of my sites , not TW , but another HB who's sold a shed load to a corporation. Absolutely flying up , but then they have been paid in advance.DbD

[lefrene] 07/3/2024 12:55

1carus, I would expect the builders to be just carrying out ground works as that raises the value (or at least mortgage ability) of each plot, more so if services are also laid on. Then you only build to order, ie a pre-sold home. Speculative building under current circumstances, I would expect to be much reduced.

[jugears] 06/3/2024 14:55

Sikh, I wasn't expecting anything & it will make no difference to the housing market, you pay stamp duty once on your purchase. Unless you are paying cash then you are paying interest for the rest of your life so any cut in interest rates, even just .25% would be more beneficial to the housing market than any cut in stamp duty, as I am sure it will be when interest rates imminently start to fall.
How are things over at TLY ?????

[sikhthetech] 06/3/2024 14:49

re buying 'abroad'.

There are also differences if you buy within the UK. Scotland is different from England, as is NI.

There's always a need for increased awareness when buying outside of UK. Apart from the local property laws, the legal system, taxes, rights to buy/live also tends to be different. As Lefrene says, always best to engage a local estate agent/property expert.

HBs have a history of coming out with new ways to get extra money from customers. Whether it be taking advantage of flaws within the Help to Buy scheme and introduce onerous ground rents or huge incentives.

Best find and instruct your own solicitor/surveyor.

[lefrene] 06/3/2024 14:42

LLB, that's a lot worse then France, unless things have changed from 25 years ago?

Kreature I had a good experience of owning property in France, but I took the precaution of hiring an estate agent from miles away to come with me on the day of doing the deal. (it's in two stages 6 weeks apart)

That agent was worth many times what I paid him for his day, and we had loads of fun too!

On the whole the French system is ok, but it's like dealing with dodgy secondhand car merchants, you do have to know what to look for, what to avoid. As an instance old houses in France tend to be riddled through with woodworm, so only buy a house made with oak timber.

Then there's the pantomime of the actual purchase. At the point of exchanging money/cheque, the lawyer over seeing the deal will make an excuse to leave the room. That's so that brown envelopes can be handed over, if the actual purchase price is higher than the 'official' purchase price, thus to avoid tax.

I got on well with the locals, and even got my French village twinned with Bisley in Gloucestershire, which was of course a culture clash, since in France the poor live in the countryside, whilst rural Cotswolds are for the wealthy. I did warn the French mayor of this, but they went ahead anyway.

[sikhthetech] 06/3/2024 14:41

yes, the Chancellor hasn't exactly announced anything major to help the housing market.


Clearly the govn don't see announcing major plans would have been a good way to win votes.

Not good for housing market.

[kreature] 06/3/2024 14:32

Now what? No stamp duty holiday

[kreature] 06/3/2024 14:11

Good board this. Ruled out buying in France, Spain, and ruled out buying on UK fake freehold estates