Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[omg48] 16/3/2024 08:32

What a depressing thread this is 😩. Should call it the troll feeder thread. Why anyone engages with them baffles me.

[kreature] 15/3/2024 20:39

“what has gone wrong?”

Didn’t banks create outrageous affordability via interest only mortgages ? Thus enabling HBs to sell overpriced houses ?

[rwlly1] 15/3/2024 20:17

tblob3 I allways start at 4.30 in a morning 365 days a year I do tend to take a brake ocasionaly if that is all right with you. Jug Builders could build affordable houses that people wanted to live in, in the fifties and sixties, what has gone wrong? Politics wise I am center right

[tlobs2] 15/3/2024 15:53

rwilly for a farmer you're a bit of a lazy get to be fair. Get out there and start to improve your efficiency.

[kreature] 15/3/2024 13:32

People want their own nice homes. So won’t be funny when they realise a management company is in control of it. Pop up the fees and down goes the value of the home . Imo

[jugears] 15/3/2024 12:18

rwilly/lefty, the problem is that people don't want affordable homes,They want nice homes, the other big problem is that only enough houses come to the market for higher earners so there is know incentive to build affordable properties when hb's struggle to supply to those that can afford it. I have looked into building affordable timber framed homes many times, I could build a 1 bedroom/bathroom/ kitchen diner come living room single storey building for about 45K but who would want them?,The biggest cost is not just the land,firstly it has to be levelled & stabilised, then you have to build roads,sewers & connect utilities & this is where the money goes.

[rwlly1] 15/3/2024 10:02

tlobs2 People are not forced into buying food but they have to, just like they need a roof over there head, I think you must have had too much of the wacky backy.

[lefrene] 15/3/2024 09:48

It's a credit game, if the created money dries up or becomes more expensive there's less dosh to push up prices. Thus prices have to adjust to the amount of created money available. There can be as much 'demand' as you like, but if those demanders can't get the credit they need something has to give. Thus the vendor of the good has to adjust his price to whatever created money is available to the would be buyer.

Prices can be controlled by placing parameters on credit availability, see post war Britain circa 1947 to 1974. Homes at genuinely affordable prices, hence a boom in consumer goods, since families had money to spend on goods and services instead of giving it all to rapacious banks who contribute nothing to the real economy (except inflation) by creating credit out of thin air, that drives up the prices of all things.

[tlobs2] 15/3/2024 09:15

You've been pulling on far too many teet's rwilly ;-)

People are not forced into buying houses. They choose to buy them. That's what sets the price whether they are new or old properties.

Lots of buyers of new properties do so without having to have mortgages, so the interest rate "scares" put out by some people don't apply.

[rwlly1] 15/3/2024 07:03

They cut production to keep house prices high, end of story.

[jugears] 14/3/2024 22:17

As demand hadn't fallen how did the house builders know how much to cut production by, Don't you think it strange that they all individually guest the exact same percentage & then all went on to sell without any reported problems the exact number of houses they built without any real fall in house prices, several sites & companies said to me before I retired that they could have sold more houses if they had been ALLOWED to build more, just a thought!

[sikhthetech] 14/3/2024 21:55

rwlly

"if it were just a shortage of properties builders would have increased production."

Exactly. The fact is HBs reduced the number of builds only because demand fell.

Simple fact.

There was huge demand in 2006, yet house prices still crashed.

Now with brexit that freedom of movement from EU no longer exists.

Also Help to Buy was introduced, providing 20%(40% in London) INTEREST FREE loans, enabling FTBs to get a mortgage to buy a home. That scheme has ended and the govn can't afford to introduce a similar one to replace it.


Demand was there in 2006 as well

Dec 2006:
Savills says housing market is not about to crash..
Prices high due to inadequate supply rather than a bubble.

Sound familiar..;-)


"The housing market is not about to crash, according to the latest Savills UK Residential Research Bulletin. Low growth in 2005 seems to have constituted the full extent of the housing market slowdown, with house price inflation excelling in 2006."

"Price levels are high and large, growing numbers of households are unable to buy their homes but this is due to inadequate supply rather than a speculative bubble, said Ms Barnes."

[fenners66] 14/3/2024 21:43

So you don't believe that demand influences anything?
Read the words I put about builders trying to manage the impact of demand
but the simple fact is that since the UK population has risen so much
600k + legal immigration
50k illegal ?
150k growth ?
in the last year alone and guess what , they all need to live somewhere....

Take out the population growth in the last 10 years , or as I said cut population instead by
that amount , what happens to house prices then?

Remember the builders only build about 200k a year
But house prices are an average of all the households - you know the 28.2million or so and
builders have little influence over the vast majority of them...

Like I said - get real

[rwlly1] 14/3/2024 14:50

fenners66 Is it not true that builders cut production to keep prices high, if it were just a shortage of properties builders would have increased production. If a huge amount of people stopped eating dairy products they would have to replace with something else, any sugestions or are you all hot air.

[spawny100] 14/3/2024 11:35

VTY gone bonkers today after cancelling final dividend. The UK market is weird these days...

[fenners66] 14/3/2024 11:27

rwlly1 - are you trying to take the trolls crown.
You believe the largest purchase the vast majority of people ever make in their lives , price is determined by - builders and NOT supply and demand?

You think supply is the only element ?

It is used by the smart to regulate the impact of demand - to look at your dairy example , how would your price hold up if tomorrow "scientists" declared milk causes cancer and a huge amount of people stopped using it overnight?

When you look at house prices - where do you think they would be if instead of rising , the population of this country fell by the amount it has been rising for the last 10 years ?

Still think the builders would have any impact on house prices ?

Get real.

[rwlly1] 14/3/2024 11:19

JUGS ag land has gone up so much partly because of the ridiculous price of devellopment land, The money from which is just being rolled over into ag land to save on tax, which is distorting the market.

[rwlly1] 14/3/2024 11:13

Tlobs2 I know all about profit and loss. I am a dairy farmer, over the years we have had to get more and more efficeint to survive. Perhapse all we needed to do as farmers is get together and cut production by say 10 percent and create a food shortage, making food that expensive that only the well off can afford to buy it, we would then be classed as true buisnes people instead of mugs.

[kreature] 14/3/2024 10:31

‘ IMEO we have seen the worst,’

Surely just getting started jugs ? Not all about rates, you’re very narrow minded tbf. What about earnings, and redundancies and cost of living and wars and everything else ?

[garycook] 14/3/2024 10:14

VTY,The pick of the HB,s atm. Even with no dividend.

[tlobs2] 14/3/2024 08:12

rwilly, do you not understand the basics of how supply and demand works? Or maybe profit and loss?

Investors are here to make money by taking some of that profit by way of dividends.

If you don't like that then tough. So stop spitting your idealistic dummy out.

[kreature] 13/3/2024 22:54

Well Doggerland was flooded 10,000 years ago at the end of ice age. I don’t remember anyone complaining about rising sea levels at the time ? Barely discernible theses days. But yeah, bit irresponsible building on floodplains hoping nothing will go wrong

[danvandan] 13/3/2024 18:06

Not forever willy.

That said, rising sea levels and more flooding events will make a lot of land non-viable. I am still seeing estates being built on flood plains - I don't know how they are getting away with it. Insurers may have a say in driving prices, though I'm not convinced we really need a lot more houses. UK birthrate is below replacement levels. Immigration is all that's driving population growth. It could change direction.

All of that might be the medium-term and long-term future. Right now, I'm looking at the 6-month chart and it appears to be flat-lining. PSN, however, is showing the direction of travel for the sector - I think all of the big house-builders will be going down for a while, so I now have a short on here. If I were significantly long TW and keen to hold, I'd be thinking about a hedge - that's not advice btw. I'm sure everyone here is able to think for themselves and will be happy with their position, but regardless, gla.