Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jibba_jabba] 08/10/2010 15:44

You could be right, i will be topping up from that figure anyway.. but will be ready for a drop to 23p just in case..

[shaws37] 08/10/2010 15:37

JJ, i think it will bounce off 25p again for a quad bottom then continue to bounce off this support until - well, who knows.

[jibba_jabba] 08/10/2010 15:35

Re looked at the chart as yesterdays one now broken down..

Waiting to buy more, to early yet i think... my view only..

[dsmith57] 08/10/2010 15:32

Held a number for two years. Saw the light today and am now totally out. Anyone here will have to wait an age for any major move and ALL the signs are negative for now and for the foreseeable future. Good luck.

[shaws37] 08/10/2010 15:15

Oh dear, what a disastrous day again. On the bright side, another great top up opportunity.

[jab118] 08/10/2010 14:28

The REVERSE HALF MOON is forming perfectly, major crash in TW share price IMMINENT.

Hi Mr Ramsay, your "* is looking fine ;-)

[fewdollarsmore] 08/10/2010 11:06

Apologies if I have missed it but anyone know when the results are out?

[honest crust] 08/10/2010 10:40

House prices like any other commodity are based on supply and demand-

The more there are available with all the ingredients (liquidity) the cheaper they become-simples!

The fundamental in a cost of the house is the land and the build cost.
Build costs have been slashed compared to 2 years ago and with rising material cost (oil,Iron Ore,copper etc)is is very unlikely that these cost can be reduced further.
That then leaves land- which due to planning restriction has been the real issue in that there is a mass shortage of available land for future development.
Thus unlocking the planning and its antiquated process will allow for cheaper housing.
This will lead to first time buyers being able to get on the ladder and start the domino effect.

HC

[imastu pidgitaswell] 08/10/2010 10:39

I would agree with that - rather than a visible quantified drop in cash prices, we will see a drift in nominal terms via inflation. It's the least bad option. And then the proles will be buying somewhere to live, we will have volumes, and we will have TW. at 250p+...

:-)

[careful] 08/10/2010 10:35

my guess is that hmg and the fed will create some inflation.
they cannot admit it as interest rates will go up on the debt.

house prices will fall in real terms.
5% infltion added to a 10% fall in nominal terms would equal about 40% reduction in real terms.(after 5 years)

that would be better, it is amazing how you can rob the proles without them knowing.
just trash your currency.

[ny boy] 08/10/2010 10:35

I'm not adverse to buying property related shares however if the entry point is attractive as these will usually outperform 6 months before any property turnaround, now property shares are turning down and telling you in advance what will likely happen in the property market.

[ny boy] 08/10/2010 10:33

imastu pidgitaswell> Yes depends on their cicumstances, many get sucked in by clever sales marketing,you have to take a very long term view on property decades not a few years, we won't get back to the boom years this decade (We may never see such a return due to new rfinancial regulations etc). Over the last 20+ years you have had BOOM...BUST....BOOM...BIG TIME BUST... All about timing as to whether you made any money or not?

This global recession will take years to unwind, banks are still holding huge amounts of commercial & residential property. There are better returns in other asset classes at present that are also more liquid and quicker to sell.

I wouldn't be in a hurry to buy residential property, there's no boat to miss! There will be plenty of opportunities to buy over the coming years. In any event the darkest & coldest days of winter are usually the best to hammer a deal. When hardly anyone is looking/buying!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 08/10/2010 10:30

I think they will hold off for exactly that reason - why buy it now when you believe you can buy it cheaper in a few more months. But it's when that outlook changes that volumes will change - hopefully without price increases. And one of the factors affecting that outlook is the affordablity calculation.

It's the price swings that have stuffed this country (and others). What we need is stability and then we will have a housing market with volumes.

[careful] 08/10/2010 10:26

market principles are the same for property as shares.
'houses are just not selling'
no such thing.
there is a price at which any property will sell.
that is how markets work.

[wig123] 08/10/2010 10:19

The pyschology of a housebuyer differs from a stock trader. There will always be buyers and sellers in differing circumstances, many look at their purchase as a HOME and not soley an investment. With all the incentive schemes that the hbs are running at the moment, those that are inclined to buy, will I doubt, hold off just because there is a wider expectation of a few % off the ask.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 08/10/2010 10:14

NY Boy - you're talking London again. It's a different country from the rest of this sceptic isle... How many normal people put £500k deposit with Coutts or burn £35k a month?

I'm talking about people in the rest of the country who have never owned a property, thinking about it and wondering whether they should go ahead and do it, or wait. Inevitably they will wait, so there will be a further slow down and prices will fall. But at what point will they stop falling as prospective buyers continually assess? Anyone's guess, I'm just suggesting the trough may be closer than you think in price terms.


In terms of investing in housebuilders, it's not so much about price (if they don't collapse...), it's about volumes. When volumes pick up, because people are making transactions as they are happy to take the risk of buying, so will housebuilders.

[denjon] 08/10/2010 10:07

Perhaps mergers and/or takeovers are the way forward in this sector now....too many house-builders to be sustainable in present downturn.

[wig123] 08/10/2010 10:06

New Model, the UK has had mass immigration since time began, the Great in Great Britain was built on the back of foreigners.

[ny boy] 08/10/2010 10:06

The reality is, there are lots of people stuck in over priced property that isn't selling as (a) mortgage lending is very tight and (b)deposits are much higher and even if you have a big deposit you (c)need an excellent credit record, so that rules out a big chunk of the punters that have been looking. I know lots of top end stuff that's just not selling as even the rich have taken to the hills and either moved into gold or buying equities not property as the outlook for growth is sluggish at best, the wealty cash buyers will only look at buying if they see an absolute bargain, they wait to pounce on such opportunities, otherwise they don't even bother to look.

I know one guy lives in a plush apartment, cash burn £35k a month little income put £500k + on deposit with Coutts a few years back and its been almost erroded! Little chance of selling any of his apartments unless he takes a big drop in the asking price, which in fact is a similar problem, most vendors are living in fantasy land thinking they will get a buyer, they might if the prices drop at least 25% +

I told the guy why would you want to open a Coutts account and deposit money with them, he said at the time, because they are a superior bank and look after wealthy Clients and if I have a Coutts cheque book it gives me status. I told him, they have just sucked you in with a load of BS, go back to them when the going gets tough and see if they want to help you... He did recently asked for a mortgage holiday of 3 months, they declined him!

[newm0delarmy] 08/10/2010 10:01

I agree..however we dont need mass immigration as an excuse to concrete over everything.



wig123 - 8 Oct'10 - 09:42 - 4296 of 4301

Yeah right, thousands upon thousands of barren acres left fallow and susidised by UK inhabitants in order to maintain the wealth of the few. lol!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 08/10/2010 10:00

careful,

I know this has been done to death ad infinitum, but do you really think house prices will 'collapse' from here?

London is different, thanks to its overseas population, and the lovely bankers and their bonus pools, and yes you can't get a one bedroom flat with a leaking shower for less than £200k. But even if you take the £162k average price quoted yesterday (and that average is notably lower if you exclude the London impact on it), if two people are buying, with a deposit of somewhere around £20k, they would have to get a mortgage of around £140k, which apparently is around 5% these days. That gives monthly costs on a repayment mortgage for 25 years of £850 per month.

Even on the 'old' version of 3 x salary, or 2.5 x combined, a £140k loan requires a combined salary of £56k.

Or another way, average house prices have risen something like 60% since 2000, including a steep rise and subsequent fall, or a compound rate of less than 5%.

All very broad brush, and there is scope for further falls due to job risk, blah blah, but I wouldn't expect a wholesale collapse - we have quietly had one since 2005 already, and looking at the basic numbers as they now stand, if one could set aside the inevitable 'fear' factor, a prospective should see things as about par.

[wolterix] 08/10/2010 09:54

and don't forget, it costs them around £60k to build each one....

:)

[wolterix] 08/10/2010 09:51

not sure what they base this average house on? 3 bedroom semi?

but an average price of £150k say, doesn't seem to me to be 'wildly' overvalued

[wolterix] 08/10/2010 09:50

Homeowners who cannot hold off selling any longer have been blamed for the biggest monthly drop in house prices for almost 20 years, prompting fears of a renewed downturn in the UK property market.

Experts said that people who were buoyed by the last Labour government's promises that the worst of the credit crunch was over are struggling to attain asking prices for their properties, leading to a 3.6% fall in the average UK house price in September.

The figures contained in the Halifax's monthly house price index yesterday were the biggest drop since the bank began compiling them in 1983. In August, it had reported the number of approved mortgages for homes in August was at its lowest level in six months.

It said a rise in the number of properties for sale and a drop in demand fuelled by uncertainty over the economy had wiped £6000 off average values. The fears came as the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee yesterday opted to keep interest rates at 0.5% for the 19th consecutive month.

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said the figures were "at face value, an absolute shocker", but it was important to put them into perspective.

He said: "Rather than crash, we expect house prices to trend down relatively gradually over the final months of 2010 and in 2011 to lose around 10% in value."

Bill Cullens, chief executive of Clyde Property, said: "The message from people in Government at that time was just how well they had handled the credit crunch and what great confidence they had going forward.

"What we all noticed in the property business was that this created a degree of confidence that we hadn't seen for two-and-a- half years. The result of that was that property prices started to move upwards which was, frankly, not justified. All you're seeing now is a sensible adjustment."

The average UK house price now stands at £162,096, and around £147,000 in Scotland.