Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 23/5/2022 13:47

ST interest rates going to 6% will not be anywhere near enough to control inflation, unlike in the past we now have a different type of inflation where the world is coming out of a recession & is struggling to produce enough stocks of goods to fill the gap created by lock down, the world cannot be expected to close for 2 years & then expect everything to be back to normal it takes time to build that stock back up, not helped by a conflict in Ukraine pushing energy & fuel prices up. The world is not in a position to except immediate higher interest rates as economies are still far to fragile, putting them up slowly on the other hand will have little immediate impact on inflation, Imo current inflation is temporary & that we are better off just going with it for now & using the wait & see approach, I am not sure that any country would be stupid enough to put interest rates up to high & to quick & risk there economies coming to a grinding holt, whatever happens I think my 98p target is long lost.

[fenners66] 23/5/2022 12:12

Shock horror , interest rates to rise from their lowest level in over 300 years. Hello !

Rates will soon reach the dizzy heights of 2019.
Which of course was at the very low end of interest rates , ever .

Whilst the hype is about a huge % rise statistically , its based upon a huge % of next to nothing is still , next to nothing !

Either way - the point was , is there going to be a UK house price "crash" this year.

4 months of record growth so far....

[beckers2008] 23/5/2022 12:11

Look at the currency markets you trolling idiots, lol, just lol!

[ftir1] 23/5/2022 11:51

It's unfortunate that there is a generation of younger people in this country that has known nothing other than "house prices always going up".

Unfortunately they are about to learn a very hard lesson.

[rwlly1] 23/5/2022 11:43

Im affraid that getting base rates to where they should be at present is the amount of dept in the system. Not only have you got public dept to GDP the same as after word war 2,dut also private dept is of the scale. 6% is where base rates should be at present, but it would bankrupt half the population.

[sunshine today] 23/5/2022 10:58

Put simply if world rates don’t rise the pain to come, gets far worse.

Your on the assumption that governments don’t have the guts .

Think on

[beckers2008] 23/5/2022 10:49

sT,

You are living in cloud cuckoo land.
Look at the currency markets, that tells you where base rates are going and it is nowhere near 6%. You are looking very foolish with your constant BS spouting.

You are an idiot, lol, just lol!

[fenners66] 23/5/2022 10:47

Your mixing your argument - stating that house price growth leads to higher interest rates.
It does not.
Central banks attempting to curb CPI inflation - does unless they come up with a better idea.
Since this is a supply shock a better idea is really what is needed.

[sunshine today] 23/5/2022 10:38

No : but we should have done, if the BOE was carrying out it’s 2% inflation remit.

Since they failed to act then, the task now requires base rates of 6% immediately.

Be warned, the shock treatment is on its way.

The hedge funds know this, hence the share price performance.

[fenners66] 23/5/2022 10:36

1974....
Derby County won the league....
2022 Derby relegated to 3rd tier.... yeah no difference in the world whatsoever.....

[fenners66] 23/5/2022 10:34

Go back to the reported article - "In the past two years, the price has soared by £55,551 - compared with the £6,218 increase seen in the two years before the coronavirus pandemic."

so that £55k is 17.5% in 2 years - we did not get 6% interest rates because of.....

[fenners66] 23/5/2022 10:32

ST - Inflation leading to higher interest rates - is not house price rises , if it was we would already have higher interest rates.

Do you understand why they put up interest rates to curb inflation ?

It is an involuntary cost which curbs demand.

Problem this time is its a supply problem not excess demand...

[sunshine today] 23/5/2022 10:15

1974

Oil up ( same as today )

House prices up ( same as today )

THEN : Came the savage slump.

[sunshine today] 23/5/2022 10:11

fenners6623 May '22 - 10:06 - 6815 of 6815
0 0 0
House prices rising - does not scream anything about base rates going up.

//////////////////////////

Odd that, since it has done throughout history.

Last big round of inflation put base rates at 16%. !!!

[fenners66] 23/5/2022 10:06

House prices rising - does not scream anything about base rates going up.

If anything it could act like energy costs - an involuntary rise in spending which curbs demand , which is exactly what a rise in base rates is supposed to do....

[sunshine today] 23/5/2022 09:40

That headline screams base rates of 6%.

That said, the clowns here don’t see it.

[fenners66] 23/5/2022 09:31

Oh yeah I was alerted to that price move by listening to it on the News on Radio 5 this morning....

[fenners66] 23/5/2022 09:29

"Pricing remains very robust with substantial offers being made across the whole market."

Aled Ellis, director at Aled Ellis & Co in Aberystwyth, said: "The property market is still buoyant in our area despite inflationary pressures and higher interest rates.

"The trend is set to continue as there is very little coming on the market, and when it does we agree a sale very quickly.

"Since COVID, we're still seeing a lot more people are able to work from home, and wish to live in rural areas as long as the broadband connection enables them to do so."

[fenners66] 23/5/2022 09:28

Back to the point of discussion that I am interested in , the 2022 "House Price Crash" ...

"The average asking price of a house has reached a record high for the fourth consecutive month.

Rightmove said that the average price tag on a property this month is £367,501 - up from £360,101 in April.

In the past two years, the price has soared by £55,551 - compared with the £6,218 increase seen in the two years before the coronavirus pandemic.

Rightmove said that over 20 years of tracking property prices it had never before seen such frenzied market activity.

Tim Bannister, Rightmove's director of property science said: "What the data is showing us right now is that those who have the ability to do so are prioritising their home and moving, and the imbalance between supply and demand is supporting rising prices."



Prices up £7400 in a month , perhaps the troll meant "crashing up" ?

[beckers2008] 23/5/2022 09:06

25G,

Your over £2k out, think you need to pay attention to detail.
After mortgage costs that couple has over 3k a month to spend.
£650k is a good starting place, you need to do your sums.
The market is what it is, gov policy won't change so onwards and upwards.
See the share price is through the 20dma, strong support at 120p. Gap ups to be filled, could TW. be about to turn positively. Let's wait and see.

[jugears] 23/5/2022 08:59

Plenty of house for sale for less than £300k so what's the problem,your making assumptions with out taking in to account how much deposit some one puts down,plenty of young people have large deposits for houses they dont come straight from uni & buy an expensive house most young people live at home rent free & save for a deposit,interest rate rises & higher inflation does not effect everyone except the low paid that are not & probably never will be on the property ladder!

[25guilderbag] 22/5/2022 23:07

I'm currently on the sidelines re TW, although the downtrend is obvious to see.Not wanting to sound smug, but 650,000 doesn't buy much house, particularly for two aspiring graduates. The mortgage isn't far off my 30k estimate, at 5% they'd need to be earning and extra grand a month to meet repayments. How does it work when they start a family, a career break or child care will cost £££. Not to mention the upbringing costs. It will be a struggle despite their income being far in excess of the typical household. They deserve and should expect better. How will they obtain the 1.25m home (at today's value) that they should be hoping for? My view remains that the market is broken.

[beckers2008] 22/5/2022 20:07

sT,

You are talking nonsense, no one is prepared to lend, what planet are you on!
How is China comparable with England, lol. You are letting yourself down, fella.

With the rental market so strong, there is no way house prices are going to drop 10 - 12%.
With an ever increasing population, the demand for houses will continue to outstrip supply. Take a look at the currency markets, they have reigned in their projections for interest rate rises, currency markets are rarely wrong, so we will have low rates for the foreseeable future.
There is so much pressure for the demand for houses and now the UK gov are not committed to 300k houses per year, the HB have full control and will ramp up and reign in as they wish, simples.
The demand for houses will continue to outstrip supply by a massive margin, this year and every year unless gov policy changes, can't see that happening.


25G,

I didn't mention grad's they will soon be earning top money within a few years of employment, I think you are being too pessimistic.

A 3 year fixed with Nationwide on a LTV ration of 77% over 25 years is only £2,304.00 pcm for a £500k loan on a £650k house, this is nothing for a couple pulling in 100k.

It's obvious that you both are short on TW. or you talk like you are.
I'm long, enough said.

[25guilderbag] 22/5/2022 18:11

If you've just graduated a 100k joint income doesn't cut it, not even close if you want a 'middle class lifestyle'.30k mortgage, 10k two car leases or annual rail tickets, 15k everything else. The rest is gone through taxation and student loan repayments.Where does the money come from to bring up kids, schooling, saving for future etc?