Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[sunshine today] 22/5/2022 18:07

The other end of the scale is when no one is prepared to lend .

That would put houses at 10% -12% of todays prices .

See China 45 years ago .

[sunshine today] 22/5/2022 18:05

The reason house prices are off the scale.

325 year low borrowing rates

[beckers2008] 22/5/2022 18:04

sT,

Then why oh why are house prices and rental prices at the level they are.
The Rental market price bracket is increasing weekly, there is huge demand but no properties, forcing people to buy.
And all the while the population is increasing, take a look at the latest ONS population projections, it is staggering!

[dexdringle] 22/5/2022 17:56

Base Rate will peak at no more than 3% because energy prices peaking, and a mini recession, will between them take the steam out of the inflationary pressure.

House prices will either stay flat or fall temporarily by a maximum 5%.

By 2025, house prices will be higher than they are now....

[sunshine today] 22/5/2022 17:53

Beckers200822 May '22 - 17:30 - 6799 of 6800
0 0 0
25G,

There are many friends/couples I know, jointly on more than £100k per year, likewise.
A house worth £500k is easily affordable. Else house prices wouldn't be where they are.
Currently £1,300 pcm rental for a 3 bed local authority house, the demand for new builds isn't going away, house prices wil continue to increase this year and years to come


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6% of the U.K. population have household income of £100,000.

A good % are over 50 years old.

Thus, 97% of house buyers are not in that wage bracket.

[rwlly1] 22/5/2022 17:43

Lucky them, the point i am trying to make is not everybody can be on such high wages, because if they were everything would be that much more expensive, the £100k plus would not seem very good anymore.

[beckers2008] 22/5/2022 17:30

25G,

There are many friends/couples I know, jointly on more than £100k per year, likewise.
A house worth £500k is easily affordable. Else house prices wouldn't be where they are.
Currently £1,300 pcm rental for a 3 bed local authority house, the demand for new builds isn't going away, house prices wil continue to increase this year and years to come.

[rwlly1] 22/5/2022 17:06

Beckers you are, an I'm all alright Jack sort of person by the sound of things.
And why would you trust Boris with anything he says, you do realise if everybody was on £50k+ a year the cost of living crisis we have got at the moment would seem like a tea party. The man is all bluff and bluster, he will say anything to distract from the mess the country is in.

[sikhthetech] 22/5/2022 16:57

Beckers

"As I have consistently stated, it's supply vs demand. Don't you get it?"

The problem is you and the other longs don't understand the supply and demand...

The markets look forward, results look back.

[25guilderbag] 22/5/2022 16:54

Graduates on 50k can aspire to own a two bed semi at 10x salary. How are they going to afford a nice four/five bed detached, with mortgage payments over 30k per year (at todays low interest rates)How are the upcoming graduates going to buy when student loan interest is a whopping 12%.The repayment figures are horrendous for graduates on 50-80k.How does it work??

[smidge21] 22/5/2022 16:04

When thinking about the supply and demand (I'm) balance, I always remember the impact of external demand. 13% of people living in UK weren't born in the UK; in London it's 37%. (Not making any political point). Organic building growth has a hope of keeping up

[sunshine today] 22/5/2022 13:47

On plane last night talking to a young A and E nurse.

Shift work

12 hours

£27,000 gross

Pays car park in city centre £9.00 a day ( no public transport ).

Student loan.


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Absolutely outrageous we have posters here with a mindset of greed .

How on earth is it responsible of us as a nation, to put housing so far out of reach, of those we all so desperately need in a time of crisis.

[rwlly1] 22/5/2022 13:22

Beckers2008 Your post just goes to show how broken the whole housing market is.
If i was a housebuilder and needed anywhere near £434k to build a 2 bed semi, i would hold my head in shame.
Also a 3 bed ex council house which would take all the take home pay of a lot of workers just to pay the rent and council tax, do you think that is fair or sustainable?
JUGEARS You can surely see what is happening over the duck pond, the chickens have come home to roost already because of excessive quantative easing, our turn next.

[jugears] 21/5/2022 15:20

Considering consumer confidence has supposedly dropped, there certainly seems to be a lot of business going on, I have travelled around 1500k this week visiting sites & all say they cannot build fast enough to meet demand,Imo the roads are busyer than I have seem for years & just spent an hour queuing to get in to my local retail park,yep confidence seems like it's at an all time low. Lol

[beckers2008] 21/5/2022 13:20

Thought I would carry out a 'Rightmove' search of properties to rent within a mile radius of Basingstoke Railway Station (42 minutes fast train to London Waterloo). Basingstoke is a thriving town with population of circa 108k up from 82k in 2012.
I searched for 3 bed semi detached or terraced houses to rent ranging from £0.00 to £1,500 pcm.
There are only 2 properties for rent, both added within the last 5 days! These will be snapped up, that's it, no more available.
Starting with the cheapest, a 3 bed ex local authority house for £1,300 pcm.
The second, a very small 3 bed within 1/2 a mile of the station for £1,500 pcm.
I have never seen so few properties for rent in this area.
This area is less than 12 miles from Spencers Wood, the Taylor Wimpey village development just outside Reading, Berkshire.
Now over 95% sold, yep, that 2 bed semi for £434k is sold!
They only have two x two bed apartments left starting at £287,500.

Current state of play and we are in latter stages of May. Will there be a housing crash? With no 3 bed's to rent in this area for less than £1,300 pcm, unlikely.

[jugears] 20/5/2022 20:27

Is that the duck pond????

[beckers2008] 20/5/2022 19:24

Only £40m more rinsing and repeating left.
My target of 114 looked likely last week but saddly for TW. very strong resistance at 120p.
Will it be tested next week?
Trouble is, volume is tiny so evidently CS is finding it tricky to manipulate this down much further.
I did state that 120p would see major resistance. It seems I was correct.
Let's wait and see what happens in the current cycle?

[sunshine today] 20/5/2022 18:05

Interestingly, over the pond, retailer’s , are being smashed 40%, in an hours trading, after acknowledging the consumer has stopped spending, while costs are going up 10% -20%.

House builders next.

[ghhghh] 20/5/2022 10:36

Look at the five year price graphs, even seven years.

Compare the NAVs per share then versus now (up c. 50%)

HBs are patently great long term value and already factor in a significant fall in prices (over > 10%).

The bears claim that house prices will crash when an orderly 5 - 10% dip is more likely.

They think that the HBs CEOs will obliviously steam into this looming iceberg despite it being clearly visible.

IMO the most concerning bear point is no recent director buying across the sector...

Been an interesting two weeks re markets. Started by panicking about multiple rate rises and are now panicking about falling consumer demand over the next 4 - 6 months.

The two are, to some extent, mutually exclusive. IMO rising interest rates are a greater threat to house prices than falling consumer confidence.

[jugears] 20/5/2022 08:31

Lol Explain ?

[buywell3] 20/5/2022 08:22

buywell can't help but believe that the BoD's of a whole lot of BIG companies currently doing buybacks are going to have egg on their mushes soon

[jugears] 20/5/2022 08:17

Gfk???? omg lol

[sunshine today] 20/5/2022 04:50

Dear me, what a surprise, NOT !!!


UK consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level for nearly 50 years amid the cost of living crisis, according to a survey, fuelling concerns that the economy will slide into recession in 2022.

The UK consumer confidence index fell 2 percentage points to minus 40 in May, its lowest since records began in 1974, said research company GfK in a report published on Friday.


JUGEARS, might do well to read the full report.

It’s free I understand.

[rwlly1] 20/5/2022 04:02

Thanks JUGEARS you have answered my question by not answering my question.