Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[scepticalinvestor] 04/9/2020 07:19

Further pain for housebuilders....RNS Number : 0099YCompetition and Markets Authority04 September 2020 Leasehold homes: CMA launches enforcement actionThe CMA is launching enforcement action involving 4 leading housing developers it believes may have broken consumer protection law in relation to leasehold homes.As part of its ongoing investigation, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is today opening enforcement cases focusing on certain practices of:·    Barratt Developments·    Countryside Properties·    Persimmon Homes·    Taylor WimpeyThe move comes after the CMA uncovered troubling evidence of potentially unfair terms concerning ground rents in leasehold contracts and potential mis-selling. It is concerned that leasehold homeowners may have been unfairly treated and that buyers may have been misled by developers.The CMA's action relates to the following areas of concern:·    Mis-selling-      Ground rents: developers failing to explain clearly exactly what ground rent is, whether it increases over time, when increases will occur and by how much.-      Availability of freehold: people being misled about the availability of freehold properties. For example, the CMA found evidence that some people were told properties on an estate would only be sold as leasehold homes, when they were in fact later sold as freeholds to other buyers.-      Cost of the freehold: people being misled about the cost of converting their leasehold to freehold ownership. When buying their home, the CMA found evidence that some people were told the freehold would cost only a small sum, but later down the line the price had increased by thousands of pounds with little to no warning.-      Unfair sales tactics: developers using unfair sales tactics - such as unnecessarily short deadlines to complete purchases - to secure a deal, meaning people could feel pressured and rushed into buying properties that they may not have purchased had they been given more time.·    Unfair contract terms - ground rents-      The use of unfair contract terms that mean homeowners have to pay escalating ground rents, which in some cases can double every 10 years. This increase is built into contracts, meaning people can also struggle to sell their homes and find themselves trapped.Alongside these issues, the CMA will also be looking further into ground rent increases based on the Retail Price Index (RPI) and may take enforcement action should it find evidence of unfair practices in relation to these. In particular, the CMA is concerned about the fairness of escalating ground rent terms linked to RPI and that these are not always effectively explained by developers when discussing RPI-based ground rent with prospective homeowners.The CMA will also be investigating certain firms who bought freeholds from these developers and have continued to use the same unfair leasehold contract terms.The CMA has now written to Barratt, Countryside, Persimmon, and Taylor Wimpey outlining its concerns and requiring information.How the case proceeds will depend on the CMA's assessment of the evidence. Possible outcomes include legal commitments from the companies to change the way they do business, or if necessary, the CMA could take firms to court.

[sr2day] 03/9/2020 22:15

as usual house buyers gullible enough to save a few thousands now on stamp duty to risk losing ten times as much on an eventual price drop.25% drop in house prices will follow,inevitable with the economy shrinking.xmas will be merry for those who are patient and wait to buy.meanwhile TW should test 100p by then.

[sikhthetech] 03/9/2020 21:23

The DOW is down 800pts.

Last month in Q3 and the uncertain times start next month for Q4.

Still early days...

[sikhthetech] 03/9/2020 21:21

DD
"Rather than hypothesise "off the top of your head", your posts would be better received if you backed them with some corelated data."


Yes, Jugs posts would be better received if he actually backed up his posts with some figures. I did ask him how many homes were sold via H2B and how many were 1st time buyers. He's reply was not many. So not very helpful...
I believe H2B will have an impact on HBs.



temporary Stamp Duty Holiday.
Both Nationwide and Rightmove said sales increased in Aug. That was after the temporary Stamp Duty Holiday was introduced. Therefore, the recent spike is on the back of the Stamp Duty Holiday


"Property sales soar on stamp duty holiday"



Brexit
"Everyone in the market has moved on"

No they haven't. There are still concerns over a no deal brexit.
The HBs still see it as a challenge and so do I.


I don't believe the uncertainties are factored into HBs share price yet.

[jugears] 03/9/2020 20:49

Was that probability ?

[sikhthetech] 03/9/2020 20:15

Jug,

It was good thanks.
We studied the effects of temporary govn interventions on the Housing Market, especially Help to Buy and temporary Stamp Duty Holidays.

We then analysed the recent reports from Nationwide and Rightmove and found that house sales and prices spiked after the temporary Stamp Duty holiday was introduced.

Challenges faced by HBs.


You should try it.

;-)

[jugears] 03/9/2020 19:45

How was school today sikhy ?

[sikhthetech] 03/9/2020 19:16

The share price fell back, As expected..
Those tiny percentages gained on the trades nearly wiped out.

Another batch to hold onto .
;-)


sikhthetech2 Sep '20 - 18:17 - 1126 of 1138 Edit
0 2 0
The share price was at 125p a couple of weeks ago and also at end of July/beginning of Aug when PSN reported. The share price fell back each time, so has been in a trading range.





It will be interesting to see what Berkeley Homes say especially as, like TW, they also operate in the slowing London Market.


So far PSN, TW & BDEV have all backed up the view that there are concerns over the next few months.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/9/2020 16:39

And it keeps on happening - so do something about it...

[martyn9] 03/9/2020 16:36

Yesterday's gains nearly wiped out,the FTSE following the Dow crashing today, typical.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 03/9/2020 15:11

And bought back the 126 ones.

Many a mickle makes a muckle...

[jugears] 03/9/2020 15:03

Dd, good post

[disneydonald] 03/9/2020 14:37

Shrek. Rather than hypothesise "off the top of your head", your posts would be better received if you backed them with some corelated data. BDEV accounts show that ~35% of their overall sales came via the HtB channel, and ~ 15% (third of their overall HtB sales) came from that category who will no longer qualify after April 2021. Now that gives us something to work with, as somewhere between 0% and 15% sales are at risk. Given that BDEV and other builders are able to sell all they build at increased prices, I would suggest that it will be nearer to 0%, than 15% of potential lost sales.

As for temporary reduction in stamp duty, prior to this builders were selling all they could build and were enjoying a very strong December to March until COVID turned up. Again, you can take a view of this which suggests it will have little effect once returned to normal, as there will still be a large gap between those who have placed orders and when those respective houses can be delivered. Even if some cancel, the order backlog will still be sufficient to soak up all houses built. Don't forget, COVID has has a strong phycological effect on many young and middle age families, they want a better lifestyle and less commuting. These aspirations are crowding the order pipeline for new houses.

In summary, I reckon there will be a little less heat, and a more normal market as builders ensure they don't over build throughout 2021 and onwards.

Brexit no longer has an impact like it has previously, everyone, including the market has moved on. The risk will lie in our ability to squash / contain COVID. As each period of time passes, herd immunity will build up in the general population and the degrading impact on the economy will lesson, even without a vaccine. Of course IMHO.

[mrjugz] 03/9/2020 06:40

I'm all for contrarian views but since when have KNOWN risks not been factored into the price prior to the event? The TAW half year report is clear the government wants house building to continue and will support it, so what's to say the government aren't already planning a NEW scheme to continue to bolster the industry and support first time buyers post h2b etc? Now that would unlikely be factored into the price....

From TAW half year report:
"Government recognition of importance of housebuilding to economy"
"Political support for the wider industry has been robust and is expected to continue"

[soilderboy] 03/9/2020 06:18

Could not agree more!!

[sikhthetech] 02/9/2020 21:04

gbh2

That's the point, HBs have provided an opportunity to trade on tiny percentages..

As you're been buying all the way down, you will sometimes be lucky to have some profitable trades...
Risky strategy though if the markets/HBs turn against you.. then you'll be holding for a long time... look at the one's you bought in the 140s+


The HBs have so far stated the same future concerns as I have so for me, those concerns are not factored in the price and the story hasn't changed for me to buy.

Look at how much HBs are dependent on Help to Buy and Stamp Duty Holiday. That tells you something...

[boozey] 02/9/2020 19:52

gbh what a great post! I agree. I remember when these were 8p in 2008 and like many investors didn't buy as it was feared TW. would be a casualty of the financial crisis. But it was a case study example of if you had bought then and held for the long term how fortune favours the brave and even at today's relatively low prices for TW. you would still be sitting on a 15 fold gain plus multiple dividends and special dividends payments to boot!

[gbh2] 02/9/2020 19:17

I've been trading these since 2008, today I was selling a few which I purchased sub 120p, they've provided me with cash to squander on other products some dodgy and some like IGG.

I also have a ring fenced holding that's understandably in a negative territory which is in a separate account and fed occasionally with Trading gains.

Years on ADVFN have shown that most Problems occur when folk Trade with more than they can afford to lose, it creates Moaners that need to shed their daily depression in an attempt to gain emotional support for their miserable failures!

[jugears] 02/9/2020 18:30

sikhy, unmitigated concerns! Who knows where we are going ? I'm just here for the long term, If I miss the boat & don't sell tomorrow, it's know hardship for me, If I am still buying at 80p then so be it. Nothing goes up in a straight line, i'm her for the long term it really doesn't matter what price I have purchased at i'm not selling & if I am not selling I am not loosing anything, I am not worried about everyone's concerns, I like companies that make things especially companies that have my products in them!!! Can I just make it absolutely Chrystal clear I will never be persuaded to sell my now substantial long term holding in Tw by any situation that is going on in the world or buy any one on this board, I have absolute confidence in where Tw will be going over the next 5-10 years & that is where I am focused.

[sikhthetech] 02/9/2020 18:17

The share price was at 125p a couple of weeks ago and also at end of July/beginning of Aug when PSN reported. The share price fell back each time, so has been in a trading range.





It will be interesting to see what Berkeley Homes say especially as, like TW, they also operate in the slowing London Market.


So far PSN, TW & BDEV have all backed up the view that there are concerns over the next few months.

[jugears] 02/9/2020 18:10

Don't listen to me I don't know anything !!!

[essentialinvestor] 02/9/2020 17:47

Congrats to the longs, and thank you Jug for that prod to buy a few yesterday.

Did not get near the best price of the day, but every little helps as the slogan got.

[1carus] 02/9/2020 17:35

Jug, I've tried day trading these. Like you, failed dismally, but now hold many of them for the same reasons I guess!!

[1carus] 02/9/2020 17:35

Jug, I've tried day trading these. Like you, failed dismally, but now hold many of them for the same reasons I guess!!