Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[omg48] 01/9/2020 08:48

TW leading share price for HB's up Friday. Leading them down today :-(
Frustrating, cant seem to break out of 119-124p

[jugears] 31/8/2020 19:32

When I said 20 years I wasn't referring to.my Tw holding as not had them 20 years. The point is will h2b stopping have a major effect on house prices or sales, no I dont think it will,maybe short term, but like I have said I invest for the long term & long term houses will sell people may have to save a bit harder but as my daughter has proved it's easy if you put your mind to it. , long term we are better off without & should never have been introduced but then interest rates should never have been cut either, Over the next few years I see huge growth for the british economy & that will need houses but there are only a hand full.of house builders to build them long term than can only be good news for Tw, I know I have said this many times but we havent seen the peak in Tw's share price by a long way yet , you just need patience & I have that by the lorry load. You say hb profits will fall but Tw like all house builders were not building houses in quantities to meet demand for the last 5 years there have been more buyers than houses & many buyers have missed the opportunity to purchase a new houses because demand has been there which leads me to think that there will still be plenty of demand when h2b finishes.

[sikhthetech] 31/8/2020 19:09

Jug,

" I am only concerned about the last 10-13 years"

You said 20yrs, now it's 10-13yrs.. That's why I said take your pick..

Those share price figures are facts, so over a 20yr period, which was the period YOU quoted, the share price is actually down.


The point is since 2013, Help to Buy has underpinned the HBs. so if you look at HBs since 2013, they have performed well, as you say 300-400%

After H2B, I reckon HBs revenues/profits will fall, the amount will depend on how much revenue/profits are generated via H2B.


Which brings me back to my point, if the story changes, adjust your opinions.

[zac0_4] 31/8/2020 18:54

jugears - we'll have to agree to disagree. Nothing wrong in that. I guess we're all here to generate a decent return on our investments, it's simply that we're taking different paths. Good luck in your investments.

[jugears] 31/8/2020 18:40

Sikh Tw fell to 3p per share, I am only looking at this point,Unfortunately I decided to wait untill 30p to buy & I am only concerned about the last 10-13 years not previously as TW were not just house builders then. Help to buy or not, houses will still sell of that I am very sure, but as you are not invested here & probably never will be how does it effect you anyway???.

[sikhthetech] 31/8/2020 18:38

Jug,

Current 120p - Take your pick, 5, 10, 20yr periods and the peak and trough...


According to Google historical data, share price to now:
20yrs ago, the share price was 205p. DOWN 41%
13yrs ago, highest at 700p. DOWN 98%
12yrs ago, lowest at 13p. UP 1000%
10yrs ago, the share price was 40p. UP 300%
5 yrs ago, the share price was 201p. DOWN 40%


From it's peak to trough, May 2007 to Nov 2008, during the financial crisis, the share price fell from 700p to 13p, a massive 98% drop!!

From trough to now, May 2007 to Nov 2008, the share price is up 1700% and that's if you were lucky to pick them up exactly at the bottom share price and sell them exactly at the top.

Where has the share price gone up 4000%??





The crucial point is
Help to Buy was introduced in 2013. Since then the share price has gone up from 80p to 120p today or 230p peak.

Help to Buy is changing in 6 months and coming to an end in 2023.

[jugears] 31/8/2020 18:29

Zaco, My money will easily triple here in the next 5 years, as I bought at 30p I am happy to hold that's still 400% in 10 years or 200% plus all my dividends in 5 years, you can keep your funds thanks, The return doesn't come anywhere close to TW. I prefer to take an average over say 10-20 years as little down turns in the middle are irrelevant to me, as is the price now, I am more concerned where they will be in the next 10 years & that will be a lot higher than now. So I am not expecting to be dissapointed at all with my long term return.

[zac0_4] 31/8/2020 18:07

Yes, that was the time to buy. And to everyone who bought 10 or 11 years ago, good luck to them! It doesn't hide the fact, though, that however much money people made it's worth less today than it was 5 years ago. I'll stick with a 5 year performance that's delivered +156% rather than holding on to an old friend that's stagnated at -13%. As you say each to their own. Good luck!

[jugears] 31/8/2020 17:40

Zaco,Tw may be down this year with the rest of the market but anyone that invested in TW 10/11 years ago would now have a return of 4000% (excluding all dividends), at there peak earlier this year that would have been a 7000% (excluding dividends)return & can't find any funds that have come close to that, so I think your 18% is not a very good investment really IN MY OPINION ! but each to there own.

[zac0_4] 31/8/2020 17:02

I'm happy to pay a small cost to invest with a good fund manager. It's the easiest way for me to get diversification across a number of countries and companies. This is important to me as I've retired early and capital preservation is probably my main priority. I actually think it should be everyones main priority. As an example, my largest fund holding, has returned +18%, nett of a 1% fee, over the last 6 turbulent months. That compares to a -37% reduction in capital here over the same period! So, I agree that what I post is my opinion and we're all entitled to them. Other than the figures above which are fact!

[jugears] 31/8/2020 15:45

Sikh totally disagree, every share I purchased 20 years ago are now worth a minimum 4 x there purchase price on current prices .
I have spoken to several companies in the building trade & plant suppliers that all thought in March or April they were going to be making staff redundant & are now taking on extra staff to meet huge demand, My current order book is full until March, next week I have 3 extremely large orders coming in that are worth 6 months of work Which need to be complete by December, I am advertising for staff but have only had a handful of people apply, so where are all these people that are about to loose there jobs?, My nephew is working on 2 housing estates (one TW) & has been working 70 hours a week & anticipates this being till at least January. It's alright anticipating millions being out of work but will that actually be the reality, because it seems to me that many companies thought they may need to off load staff but in reality have found that they don't need to. IMO the country is doing a lot better than some would have us believe,
.Zaco yes fortunately it is only your opinion, My opinion is that I would not pay anyone to invest or look after my money & have been more than happy with my rewards thanks, that have beaten many many funds out there, I would say if you can't invest your own money in individual shares why let someone else.

[zac0_4] 31/8/2020 15:19

sikhthetech - you're right. It all depends on time horizon and objectives etc. If I was to give any advice to someone young enough starting to invest I'd simply say, pick a global equity fund, invest monthly, never panic sell and over a 20 year timescale become very wealthy! I'd definitely steer clear of the ftse and also single shares. All the above is only my opinion based on lessons learnt over 20 years plus of investing. Good Luck.

[gbh2] 31/8/2020 13:21

Jugs, we've always had a quick turnover in our area, the only reason it took so long for the folk across is due to the Lock down, I know this because the Sold subject to contract went up with two weeks of the For sale sign.

I'd sell up and move to the place we have in the Lake district but the missus likes it here, I don't mind it but I prefer the Hills & Lakes.

[sikhthetech] 31/8/2020 12:39

Zac,

"Simply buying and holding over a long period, provided you're in the right investment, is the way to go. "

agree, providing you're in the right investment. If the investment case changes then adapt to those changes.

It also depends on an individual's circumstances. If they are due to retire or building capital/income etc.

Ftse 100 was at 7000 20 yrs ago, it is now around 6000. So if you bought for a 20yr period, you would have been at a loss.
Adapting to any changes is important.

Likewise Marks & Spencer, Lloyds..

[jugears] 30/8/2020 19:22

Gbh, houses near me are selling before the sign goes up with buyers waiting according to my local estate agent, prices do seem to be well up on a year ago, just had my current home of ten years valued, it was more than double what I paid for it & up 8 percent on a year ago! There seems to be a lot of companies taking on staff now even Tw.
Stewart 64 ,look at history property never falls for very long 10 years they will be nearly double what they are now.

[stewart64] 30/8/2020 19:19

Fwiw we exchanged on our sale and purchase on Friday. Most of our watchlist of properties has disappeared in the last week or two going SSTC ( N Midlands..so the epicentre of the current boom, obviously not representative of areas around the capital but for northern England the strongest market since 2003). Quite relieved that we tied in a purchase at the same time tbh. Ok property might fall in price as boom turns to bust, but we have less than half our money in the house value. In these uncertain times I'd hate to have too much in fiat currency which could turn to toilet paper, Weimar style. Having a high weighting in cash just now hasn't stopped me having TW shares though.

[gbh2] 30/8/2020 12:09

Movement across from us, the ex owners moving out, that's just 3 Months since the For Sale sign went up and the Price they asked was 80K more than I thought our houses were worth :))

[disneydonald] 29/8/2020 01:34

Imastu. I assume you know the 12.1m was the result of the closing auction, and how that auction works and what its objectives are. More interesting is the trades which occur for five minutes after the closing price has been calculated, as these can only trade at that price. This gives a view whether the closing auction might have been "manipulated", and then followed up with large trades at that price in the CPX session (following 5 minutes). Looking at today's numbers there does not seem to be anything untoward, or exceptional.

[zac0_4] 28/8/2020 22:46

JUGEARS - I don't agree with a lot of your posts. However, I'm in full agreement with what you've just said. People think that to make money you have to buy and sell on a frequent basis. That's trading not investing. Most people lose money when they trade regularly. Simply buying and holding over a long period, provided you're in the right investment, is the way to go. You've chosen Taylor Wimpey, I haven't, I've sold, but good luck to you as I totally agree with your strategy (not necessarily the holding)!

[gbh2] 28/8/2020 19:18

I'm about to give up on the TW threads, I'm fed up of seeing discussion that rotates around the idiot and little else.

[jugears] 28/8/2020 17:23

Potential, Funny old word that, of course they are concerned what else could they say ? LOl, & I like every other Taylor Wimpey investor have read the report, Do you think I am Stupid ?

[jugears] 28/8/2020 17:18

gbh2, He is either very young or stupid, why is everyone out to make a quick buck these days, whats the fascination of making a few hundred quid buying & selling. I learnt a long time ago that there is money to be made in the stock market if you hold long enough, in the eighties me & my dad would invest a grand here & there & make a good profit, but I soon realised that if you picked the right company & invested 10-20k minimum you made a much better profit & have been doing it ever since. I suppose its quite easy seeing a few pence profit as good if you trade, but when I look back at all the shares I bought that went up & down( some times plunging over night)the Johnson Matheys/ Travis Perkins bought for a pound & Next/Asda/Arcadia bought for 50-60p & then look at what I eventually sold the for & what they are worth today & you get a better understanding why I prefer to hold long term, I have sold so many shares prematurely over the years & can understand people being sceptical when I say Tw could be £5 in 5-10 years but i'm afraid that these things do happen.

[sikhthetech] 28/8/2020 17:02

Jug, " I don't agree that furlough is major challenge " "why you think Brexit is going to be a major challenge?

I accept you don't see furlough, Covid or Brexit as challenges but the HBs do.
I'm with the HBs and their concerns. We'll just have to agree to disagree on those challenges.

Brexit is a major challenge simply because a no deal or unfavourable brexit will crash the stock market.

Even the HBs themselves have expressed concerns about a no deal Brexit, unemployment and Covid:

This from TW:

"Whilst there remains a high degree of uncertainty in the short term from both the impact of COVID-19, particularly on employment, as well as the UK's exit from the European Union, demand has remained robust and our customers have continued to want to progress their home purchases."

"Although our Ordinary Dividend Policy has been the subject of prudent and comprehensive stress testing against various downside scenarios, including a 20% reduction in prices and a 30% reduction in volumes, and is payable through a normal downturn, the COVID-19 pandemic represents a highly unusual set of circumstances. "



PSN:

From PSN results, which backs up my concerns:
" Potential medium term risks to demand associated with Covid-19, rising unemployment and Brexit remain"



READ THE COMPANY NEWS

[gbh2] 28/8/2020 16:49

sikhthetech 28 Aug '20 - 16:05 - 1022 of 1026 (Filtered)

I refuse to give him a platform on which to whine!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 28/8/2020 16:45

Interesting closing trade - 12.1m at 122.5