Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[martyn9] 19/3/2020 12:03

Michaelbinary,excellent post and well put in context.

[1 nhs] 19/3/2020 11:55

Cities around the world will see massive civil unrest within 4 weeks.

It’s a given

[1 nhs] 19/3/2020 11:54

It’s not the virus, it’s how mankind reacts.

[1 nhs] 19/3/2020 11:53

We are programmed to think we are in an inflationary World.

That’s why 99.99% believe long term house are great investments.

That’s why 99.99% are in for a hell of a kicking.

That’s without the demographic timebomb

[1 nhs] 19/3/2020 11:51

Great post

[careful] 19/3/2020 11:50

We are programmed to think we are in an inflationary World.
We cannot get our mind around the possibility of deflation, particularly house price deflation.

It has happened often before, in Japan property prices collapsed in line with the stock market over many years.
70% Down from its peak.
The Nikkii index fell from 40,000 to below 10,000.

Ireland, Spain, America, house prices halved in places after the recent financial crash.

It takes confidence and belief to believe in the myth of ever rising house prices.
they have become stupidly high relative to average incomes.

The ftse100 index has fallen from 6950 jan 2000, to todays 5100.
House prices have tripled, thanks to a fantasy belief and government subsidies of various sort, plus a often repeated supply and demand argument.
no capital gains tax, housing benefit, help to buy.

there are dividends for shares, and rental income from houses, but this imbalance will correct itself.

be prepared.

[1 nhs] 19/3/2020 11:48

Remove the ability to get a loan and house are worth £50,000

[clarky5150] 19/3/2020 11:46

But I bet you can in a ten mile radius of your village. You are a successful man and quite rightly live in an area deemed to be desirable. My boss lives in West Bridgford in Nottingham affectionately nicknamed Bread and Dripping town as property is so expensive that is all people live on. 2 miles down the road is St Anns and the Meadows, as low rent as you like. Social mobility comes with a price but the people who strive to achieve it should be applauded even if they have to cut their cloth accordingly.

[jugears] 19/3/2020 11:40

clarky- i live in the midlands & in my village your lucky to get a 3 bed semi without a garage for less than 250k.

[jugears] 19/3/2020 11:38

Wfl1970- History when it comes to property & land on this small island always repeats itself, The world will recover it may take a bit of time, Yes some companies will go out of business (A lot probably would have done anyway) & new ones will be created, I expect at least 25% of my competitors to disappear which will be great for my company but if anyone of them asked for help I wouldn't hesitate for one minute to assist as we all need to stick together in these difficult times & when this is over we all need to support British industry & get manufacturing our own products again. As the owner of a company I know I am in a more fortunate position that most & have had my rainy day plan in place for the last 30 years & very sure that a lot of other small business owners have to. Any unpredictable situation is difficult & know amount of speculation will predict the outcome.We all just have to wait & see but know matter how bad it gets the country will survive & rebuild, but we are all going to have to work together as a united country, There may be wage cuts, job losses, people loosing there homes, pubs,restaurants etc but things will improve & life will continue & the country will rebuild & the economy will boom again (Until the next crisis !)& hopefully next time we will be better prepared.

[wfl1970] 19/3/2020 11:24

Clarky, that's fair enough - however, none of what you describe are ever the same in context. Every situation may have similarities, though variables will always be present. Charts provide information, not a guarantee.

[clarky5150] 19/3/2020 11:11

WFL1970
19 Mar '20 - 10:59 - 25346 of 25347
0 0 0
Jugears, history is no guarantee of future outcomes.


And yet chartists seem to do well out of exactly that. Hindsight and Chrystal balls would be great but we work with what we have and history shows a similar pattern EVERY time. No retrace, recession, depression ever lasts and the world moves onward and upward.

[wfl1970] 19/3/2020 10:59

Jugears, history is no guarantee of future outcomes.

[martyn9] 19/3/2020 10:59

A politician for once has just spoken sense in the HofP, the government have employed peoples tax ref and know what employees earn so the government should pay employees in reverse or as the scandanavians propose a percentage of income.
The government employees all get full pay of course so why not,though i doubt this country really want to support people,all talk from gov't as usual.Loans/grants won't materialise or will be too late for most!! imo.

[jugears] 19/3/2020 10:55

gaygay3 apart from myself & a few others on here there are no share holders, but sikh & others may get it right one day as another HB has cancelled its dividend, that said the ones that have so far are not in the league that Tw are , My own opinion of course.

[jugears] 19/3/2020 10:50

NHS- In truth in 10 years time the average house price will be 400-500k, Prices may come down short term but you only need to look at history to see where they will be.
Construction enquirer is a good daily read with cv updates for the construction industry.

[gaygay3] 19/3/2020 10:41

1NHS are you for real have you got your own house you are talking rubbish if houses went down to 80k nobody would move because they would have lost to much money once again for the third time have you got shares in TW

[sikhthetech] 19/3/2020 10:37

The world faces a crisis which is likely to tip it into a global recession.... and
Covid-19 is an invisible threat...

HB already faced redress from the leasehold scandal as well as btl investors selling up so house price weakness..

Covid-19 is another problem.

I have a buy in price for several shares. It was under 100p for TW pre Covid-19 - which was based on the redress for leasehold scandal and house prices crashing due to btl investors selling, EU citizens moving back and asian property investors selling..

My buy in price is now below 50p... If it gets there fine, if not then I'll look at the others on my watchlist...

[clarky5150] 19/3/2020 10:34

I have no doubt of your involvement in the industry or the accuracy of some of your posts NHS. Unfortunately the golden nuggets were buried in apocalyptic doom mongering. I'm sure if you use the knowledge and experience you hold to make fact based posts you will be of benefit to all on this board. I personally will be looking for a positive slant from you as a signal that the worst is over. I'm not sure it will come for a while.

[1 nhs] 19/3/2020 10:32

It’s very simple .

The best kids in their twenties are earning about £27,000 a year

Thus at £300,000 it’s one way down

Prices will not hit new highs for 30 years.

It’s over

Just look at the price of corn over 300 years

Often get prices falling for decades

[1 nhs] 19/3/2020 10:28

Valuations will fall for a good ten years

The average house price needs to fall from £300,000 to around £80,000

You will then have a market for your product

[jugears] 19/3/2020 10:28

NHS, I would say that out of all the house builders I work for Tw have the better build quality.